Torch Tiger Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 17 minutes ago, Hoth said: What happened in '05? Wilma <3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 Just now, Dr. Dews said: Wilma <3 Was that a big deal in SNE? I was up in VT at the time and don't remember much after its Florida landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 Looks like it was inconsequential here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 It was a quite impactful setup, not necessarily from Wilma directly but the enormous fetch. Wind, flooding and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 54 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: It was a quite impactful setup, not necessarily from Wilma directly but the enormous fetch. Wind, flooding and snow. 05 and 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 9 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: 05 and 20 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Two different opportunities. First with better UL synoptic setup, second with better tropical connection. Sharp UL troughs over the N Gulf or SE Coast can often spawn TC’s/STC’s this time of the yr, and w/o much guidance support at short leads... So I’m still focused on the day 5 potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 11 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Two different opportunities. First with better UL synoptic setup, second with better tropical connection. Sharp UL troughs over the N Gulf or SE Coast can often spawn TC’s/STC’s this time of the yr, and w/o much guidance support at short leads... So I’m still focused on the day 5 potential... Euro actually gusts outer Cape into the 60s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 This low level swirl East of the Del Marva the remnants of Sally...? Might ruin our chances of nice weather today... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-eastcoast-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 14 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: 05 and 20 I was thinking mid-month or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 Weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 May have to watch ern areas and cape for sneaky wind event later this is week from second low? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, I've been casually looking at that possibility. Euro looks most interesting. And then lots of guidance seems to be festering something off the SE and/or GOM after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 I’d definitely like to see some festering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 this doesn't look good @WxWatcher007 you chasing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 28 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Honestly I’m starting to look past hurricane season and don’t really feel like going to the Gulf again. Unless there’s an east coast threat my tropical chase season is probably done. EURO gets it down to 961 then weakens to a TS at LF mid LA. Let the blizzard chase season begin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Soon to be hurricane DELTA....poised to explode before threatening NO as a minimal to moderate cane. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/delta-poised-to-become-hurricane-and.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Guess will start hoping the remnants get up here though guidance currently has them south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Delta appears destined to 5 status ... Looking at the typical environmental factors, this system has 0 inhibition for strengthening - that only leaves internal fluctuations that are not predictable with any reliancy such IR sequencing and so forth. My experience with that is that the TCs destined for unimpeded realization ... typically spike to their apex along the gestation intensity in that first 18 to 24 hours through that initial RI (rapid intensity..). After which replacement and expanding wind fields and other mechanics start lowering winds due to spreading the atmospheric response to the internal/core pressure implosion. Right now... the core is simply coring out faster than the surrounding PGF can respond due to curvature physics impeding mass transport ... so it's probably going to be 920 mb here by overnight... at 160 mph ( I'm guessing) at about the time FOX News contingency's blaming it on gay marriage - Heh...anyway, it may not be that strong but it's 130 mph rather abruptly and again, it just appears to be in the midst of an RI curve that has zippo inhibitors for the next 24 hours. I dunno- but that I don't see what's going to stop this thing from really ceiling intensity. Also, I am noticing the the modest shearing that the models were imposing on the circulation out there around ( now) 96 hours,... is all but gone or reducing. In fact, many global models are significantly expanding the pressure field/dimension of the circumvallate of the cyclone as it is in the midriff Gulf open seas... approaching 120 hours.. That's bit alarming for obvious reasons.. and who knows what kind of particulars with structure it will harbor. Lyme bite ringed eye-walls tunneling along 135 mph wind drills, each separated by intervening zephyrs of only 78 mph to offer exhalation as the coast is clear if one is lucky enough to be there instead - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 000 WTNT61 KNHC 061520 TCUAT1 Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1120 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...RECENTLY RECEIVED DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta is continuing to rapidly strengthen. The maximum winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. This makes Delta a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. SUMMARY OF 1120 AM EDT...1520 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 82.7W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown I'm sure CrankyWeatherGuy, will say its no more than a Cat 1 right now. Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 6, 2020 Author Share Posted October 6, 2020 beast mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 6, 2020 Author Share Posted October 6, 2020 models shifting west a bit.. CMC/GFS pretty close to allot of rain up this way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 41 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: models shifting west a bit.. CMC/GFS pretty close to allot of rain up this way drought buster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Yeah the transport/PWAT aspect up to the lover OV/ to upper MA/NE regions was hinted several days ago but has been flip-flopping a bit with some runs trying to flatten the flow ...but I think the westerly position has merit... May not correct deficits but will dent if so - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Never seen a model at 190 knots I dont think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 Delta going to 936 according to the Euro 947 at LF. Ugh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 Delta's seems to have followed the floor plan of this tropical season for failing exulted states based upon every indicator suggesting it should -... Finally, for the first time in the past 5 days of this this thing ...we seem to have emerged a definitive eye. Even when this cyclone was 140 mph ... I'm sure it had an eye but you could not see it... And I mean it was not like there was an "impression" of an eye if perhaps merely obscured by clouds ...it looked like there was no 'dent' nothing... just a CDO with weird cold nodules that seemed to bifurcate where an eye would be.. As an aside, it seems there's probably some sort of at least indirect correlation between presentation and health - heh... who knows -.. Anyway, it weakened without an IWR ...just for no reason, prior to making landfall on the Yuk. Okay ...it's not like we want to kite civility along down there. But, it moves back out over 312 F water and 0 shear... 100 mph - ... wow, look out! Something is "in the air" ( ha!) mitigating this seasons... Historic numbers held back is what is really gone. Interesting... Oh, I'm sure this going to be a category 9 sonic speed orbit influencer now that I've insolently questioned the motivations of the gods ... but, the damage of seasonal profile is already in the museum in my mind and this has been a weird year. I wonder if some of this is 'detection sensitivity' - ...but it's hard to mention that without suggesting intent was in play - I really don't mean that. But the network of tech and human observation was simply not as sophisticate in the past ... By virtue of that, some of this could be influenced by those latter advantages. I just a suggestion - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 39 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Delta going to 936 according to the Euro 947 at LF. Ugh The worst kind of deja vu if that happens. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 DELTA Final Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/hurricane-delta-final-call.html?fbclid=IwAR3XtXWKFZZOOkT8WsFWhEtiOl1hdOB2slwf16nrv9PAHAboPEHC3mAJ73c New Orleans looks to have dodged yet another bullet. Landfall should occur around the sparsely populated Pecan Island, LA at around midnight tomorrow night with max sustained winds between 100 and 115mph. Main threat will be surge, but thankfully once again throughout primarily marshland. While wind won't be anything likely Laura, it will not have to be, as debris from Laura is still strewn throughout the area as projectiles at the ready. Dangerous situation for this area.....AGAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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