Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 They’ve still got the NAvGEM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 It looks pretty nasty, but as this point maybe not worse case scenario for Nova Scotia. While we know the waters are cool south of NS, the baroclinic assist from the incoming trough starts later Sunday and continues into Monday. By Tuesday, as Teddy approaches, the storm is more stacked and the hurricane/post-tropical is slowing down before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: This swell is gonna be very long period . I mean sent from the Deep Tropical latitudes . Gonna need some Deeper water spots , to see swell that isn’t closed out . Do you surf? If so...never knew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: This swell is gonna be very long period . I mean sent from the Deep Tropical latitudes . Gonna need some Deeper water spots , to see swell that isn’t closed out . N winds will pump the near shore heights. Watch this closely as there is a monster circulation once it interacts with the ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Do you surf? If so...never knew! Honestly , i used to often in Florida . I sold my board when I moved up here bc I was a baby with water temperatures. I had some close calls and I pretty much stopped surfing . I body surf large waves but it’s a bit chilly now and honestly I just have a fetish for Swell and Snow That’s fairly equal . I could watch Giant swells for hours , especially from out at a point on a Sunny day . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Still many epic members on the EPS for Hazey. I would definitely be getting well prepared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NSwx Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 I’m still cleaning up from Dorian 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Honestly , i used to often in Florida . I sold my board when I moved up here bc I was a baby with water temperatures. I had some close calls and I pretty much stopped surfing . I body surf large waves but it’s a bit chilly now and honestly I just have a fetish for Swell and Snow That’s fairly equal . I could watch Giant swells for hours , especially from out at a point on a Sunny day . Agree, I gave up boards decades ago. 10 years ago I was body surfing 10 to 15 feet swells with no problems. Now I am wih those people on the beach. Paulette was fun and perfect for me with 4 to 8 feet. I could see 10 plus in spots. Pick of the area for me would be Point Judith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 It looks pretty nasty, but as this point maybe not worse case scenario for Nova Scotia. While we know the waters are cool south of NS, the baroclinic assist from the incoming trough starts later Sunday and continues into Monday. By Tuesday, as Teddy approaches, the storm is more stacked and the hurricane/post-tropical is slowing down before landfall. Sooo not really bad. Just maybe kinda not good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: N winds will pump the near shore heights. Watch this closely as there is a monster circulation once it interacts with the ULL I haven’t looked closely on the storm motion past Monday Pm , that WNW hook and it’s associated interaction and subsequent extended fetch from ULL interaction you speak of could create some huge waves if that fetch could establish itself in someone’s swell window and sort of slow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Just now, Hazey said: Sooo not really bad. Just maybe kinda not good? lol I mean, it's bad. I'm just saying it would be worse if the phasing happened a bit later, or the incoming trough was stronger and less cut-off from the flow as it approaches NS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Agree, I gave up boards decades ago. 10 years ago I was body surfing 10 to 15 feet swells with no problems. Now I am wih those people on the beach. Paulette was fun and perfect for me with 4 to 8 feet. I could see 10 plus in spots. Pick of the area for me would be Point Judith Ruggles will be big . Surf was 30-40% more focused in that deeper water spot w Paulette as opposed to first beach . Second beach was mostly blocked as it has poor SE exposure .Some faces were a solid 12 feet. Is Teddy’s wind field of 34 knot winds similar size on east side as Paulette currently i see forecasts of 6 feet @17 seconds from 148-150 degrees Late Sunday / Monday in RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EJM Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 I've been checking out this surf site because it shows a lot more info than some of the others: https://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Ogunquit-Beach/forecasts/latest/six_day. Typical summer wave energy on a decent day might be 200Kj, whereas this forecast has it going up to over 3000Kj on Tuesday. I doubt you'll see many people in the water on Tuesday. Sunday afternoon frankly looks pretty good. If you can see that link here's a screenshot of the forecast for Ogunquit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drstuess Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Ruggles will be big . Surf was 30-40% more focused in that deeper water spot w Paulette as opposed to first beach . Second beach was mostly blocked as it has poor SE exposure .Some faces were a solid 12 feet. Is Teddy’s wind field of 34 knot winds similar size on east side as Paulette currently i see forecasts of 6 feet @17 seconds from 148-150 degrees Late Sunday / Monday in RII will give a shameless plug of my friends local surf forecasting app. Ww3 data, gfs wind, local cams, and very good spectral analysis from the local buoys. RI specific, but worth checking out: called "HopeWaves" .Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 For the last 3 day's-worth ...some 12 cycles of the models, et al they have slammed the tropical season shut after this Teddy... fitting that in terms of ACE Teddy symbolizes a finale: it is the single ( probably ..) biggest contributor to the seasonal aggregate, and .. haha, that it would stay safely, unappealingly out of fun's way ...even bulging west upon exit track as a last hesitation mockery-smack in the face. It's like the scene in "Airplane," when Leslie Neilson's character smacks the woman a couple of times ..."Calm down! Get ahold of yourself!" Then the attendant intercedes, "Captain, your needed in the cabain. "All right -" but as he steps away ... he hesitates, looks over his shoulder, and steps back in as though 'upon second thought' - one last smack.... Then he finally steps away. Pretty funny scene - That's Teddy... lol - Yeah who knows if that abrupt season termination is legit. The models seem to do above median performance in predicting this recent 2-week flurry of Invests and other waste of timers for lusty dystopian geese, so perhaps they'll perform well to shut it down. The Euro, GFS, and GGEM operational versions all starkly end up in a dearth of features out there beyond Teddy over the MDR... It is nearing October so - One thing that occurs to me ... Scott had mentioned that although there is above normal actual entities to observe, the ACE has been normal for TC seasonality. We can thank the odd propensity to sputter everything... Teddy took days and days to gain 20 kts this and pressure that... and whatever's causing that belated realization has afflicted everything - as far as I can recall. Even Laura spent time fighting and languishing. Even over the last 24 hours since it finally gained it's merit badge ... heh.. Teddy hasn't looked convincing with ragged cloud tagged eye wall features...and weird curved bands that occasionally slice inward around the ring of deep convection from time to time. Oh, it's a cat 4 sure... you could just feel the writer of the upgrade discussion 'finally!' But, the last five years? That thing woulda been a Cat 6 and through eyewall replacements, with satellite TD rotating outer arms so far removed from the central pressure well that they've manage to formulate ephemeral cyclonic nodes... Kind of like artistic analog of the captured Magellanic Cloud dwarfs captured by the Milky Way. This season? There isn't enough "Dark Matter" - Anyway, it is interesting that despite the occurrence counts the ACE is normal... -ish ... I would extend that characterization of the normalcy ( so far...) to also having the occurrence-density timed on top of the climate bell-curve of activity/normal as well, mid September range on the calendar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 39 minutes ago, EJM said: I've been checking out this surf site because it shows a lot more info than some of the others: https://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Ogunquit-Beach/forecasts/latest/six_day. Typical summer wave energy on a decent day might be 200Kj, whereas this forecast has it going up to over 3000Kj on Tuesday. I doubt you'll see many people in the water on Tuesday. Sunday afternoon frankly looks pretty good. If you can see that link here's a screenshot of the forecast for Ogunquit. I always look at this site with the energy. Very important during coastal flooding events to look at wave energy and current speed. New Moon goon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 46 minutes ago, drstuess said: I will give a shameless plug of my friends local surf forecasting app. Ww3 data, gfs wind, local cams, and very good spectral analysis from the local buoys. RI specific, but worth checking out: called "HopeWaves" . Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk nice man thanks for the link, downloaded the app, love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Tried to tell 'em. Still not giving up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 How about that invest in the central Atlantic? Does that have a future on the east coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Catch me on the harbor doing a rain dance in a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Going to be interesting how Teddy interacts with that trough. To sling that nw at such high latitude will take some forcing. Dull roar from the local media so far. No alarm bells sounding yet. If nothing changes track wise I suspect later this weekend will be hoping as panic hits. #NovaScotiaStrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Still not giving up Yeah,. you only need about a 500mi correction west in mean track and you'r good. That's doable in 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 She gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 32 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah,. you only need about a 500mi correction west in mean track and you'r good. That's doable in 4 days. Wouldn't be the first time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 18, 2020 Author Share Posted September 18, 2020 looks like most models now have some kind of NS landfall, I have family there so still very interested in how this evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: looks like most models now have some kind of NS landfall, I have family there so still very interested in how this evolves. Yes, my sister-in-law and family live in Halifax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 18, 2020 Author Share Posted September 18, 2020 12 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yes, my sister-in-law and family live in Halifax. mother in law and brother in law are in Dartmouth .. they always send me blizzard pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 18, 2020 Author Share Posted September 18, 2020 Alpha? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: Alpha? Portugal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 East of Bermuda and peeps still saying there is time???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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