Bostonseminole Posted July 30, 2020 Author Share Posted July 30, 2020 Gfs across the cape headed to NS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Looks like the track of Edna in 1954, the models will change so being in the GFS 5 day may be a blessing if it keeps trending east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 OTS theme it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 I think Carolinas have best shot. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/07/tropical-troubles-possible-for-east.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Yeah. Iglesias coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 the hype 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Part of me thinks we have seen models bring a hurricane up the coast 4-5 days out several times, other part says it is 2020 and anything can happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Hopefully it does not disrupt SSTs much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Has the center jumped north? Satellite would certainly suggest it. I suppose the flow banking up against the northern side of Hispaniola could encourage such a move. Interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 She gone. Either OTS or in FL...probably OTS. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: She gone. Either OTS or in FL...probably OTS. Eps still has alot of solutions close to the coast along with the gfs para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Eps still has alot of solutions close to the coast along with the gfs para. It's very hard to do that though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's very hard to do that though. OTS is very likely but I wouldn’t sell a ride up the coast across SNE. I look to get a pass a few miles to me East here in S FL maybe as a strong TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Modfan2 said: OTS is very likely but I wouldn’t sell a ride up the coast across SNE. I look to get a pass a few miles to me East here in S FL maybe as a strong TS. Not a hard sell, but I'd caution that placement near SE MA and ACK. GFS may have had the right idea with the weenie center jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 6z NAVGEM would work August 4th is my sons 3rd birthday got to turn him into a full weenie early 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 is this really not getting crippled by Land interaction w D.R . It’s weak, should see less organization today , especially as S inflow is choked off by D.R mountains if this does skirt N coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 This would be perfect 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: This would be perfect Damage In Tolland approved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 6z Euro buries this in Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: This would be perfect We’d like it about 25 miles west up the CTRV. You want to be on East side 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 20 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: This would be perfect tease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Unfortunately for the drama seekers ... that depiction isn't it. It's weakening rapidly and typically, that lifts the wind field off the deck and starts frictionally inducing a stable layer - not necessarily representable in the thermal sounding...not speaking to inversions in that sense. Fluid/viscosity vs the weakening PGF does the decoupling and lifts the wind field, such that cloud tags whisk overhead at ludicrous speed while your winds gust to 30 mph ... But...that does still support the EFO/EF1 spin potential, because as the BL restoring bends inward ... meanwhile, the lifted/decoupled wind field thus creates a strong mass diffluence between the 3 and 6km levels over top, and that ropes any incidental rotation by pulling the column lengths ... blah blah... Overall, depending on the speed of motion, that could produce small to intermediate stream flood response with perhaps 2 to 5" in extinguishing bands that might be in the process of losing intensity and shredding at that point - probably so... I bet that structure has sun shoots and sky-lights near the core ...poking through as it exits the Maine coast... while the wind over interior SNE is dead calm at a DP of 78 If the system is deeper and stronger when it quasi-accelerates ( "quasi" ..because it's not really even clear this thing does very convincingly) up the coast, and slams in ...that's a different scenario and physical impact. Weakening or not, a deep core moving quickly will have a right quadrant wind max to contend with...and also, just have kinematics still playing out to really nail the left with rain... Bob was moving fast and had these momentums/physics in pay ...and the speed of storm motion, outpaced the rate of decay concomitant with TCs entering the Bite water latitudes... and that is key for New England impact scenarios: d(storm) < d(motion) we cannot have these things kinda sort accelerating as mere strong Trop storm profiles... or regarldelss of whatever Frankenmodel like the NAVGEM lubes us with ... it won't be a mere strong Trop storm profile around here. We have had Nor'easters with deeper pressure cores result only light winds in Metro West 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Ok I’ll say it, I’ll buy two copies of your book John if you can push this up here somehow lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 13 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Ok I’ll say it, I’ll buy two copies of your book John if you can push this up here somehow lol we'll have front row seats as it blows out to sea...zero luck here lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: She gone. Either OTS or in FL...probably OTS. Why not Carolinas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 I don't think the stakes are that high, as it will be lucky to achieve hurricane status. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why not Carolinas? OBX could be an option....was sort of referencing here. Hyperbole aside, it wouldn't shock me of we saw some impacts even in SNE. All options are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 30 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Ok I’ll say it, I’ll buy two copies of your book John if you can push this up here somehow lol Ha! Yeah.... sorry ...don't mean to come off as Dr No-ish or know-it-all either... It's just that since I tend to pride myself and go out of my way to seek objectivity as a goal/acumen, that means I am quite likely going to default sound like a party pooper or debbie downer. Just being in the room ...heh. By virtue of being proximal to the "ebullient willingness" of guidance interpretation ( eh hem...) that too oft permeates these bus-stops of weather-related cinema seeking social media pass-times .. I get to be the asshole. I'm sure there is that same tendencies over at Earth Quake Central, and Cosmic Ray Burst Just When She Finally Say Yes ... forums too - haha Tongue-in-cheek aside... If it gets above some developmental/momentum threshold ... mm, willing to guess that it exceeds expectation. Not sure by how much ... either 1 mph or 40 ... but it would not surprise me. Particularly when it turns right and heads up... it'll be passing over some of the richest integrated oceanic heat content on the planet...lengthwise for a time, too... as in, not merely passing across the axis of the g-string. Folks, need to remember, the warm thong of the west Atlantic is oriented S-N from southern Florida to about Cape Hatteras... So, turn right and heading lengthwise along that does offer some intrigue ...as the shear profiles presently modeled appear favorable. The storms motion relative to ( SRS) is very low ... It just looks like a scenario for Bobian deepening so experimental thinking but we'll see.. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think the stakes are that high, as it will be lucky to achieve hurricane status. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nova737 Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: This would be perfect Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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