Hoth Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: 12Z Euro. Let's end this drought in a big way. I guess just got to slow down Teddy a bit and strengthen the high to the northeast of us. Have the storm come in from a SE to NW direction over the Gulf Stream. *James has entered the chat. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Paulette and Sally are going to influence Teddy Bear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said: There has been one storm that made landfall in ME but the name escapes me Saxby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 and i still won't see anything out of it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Paulette and Sally are going to influence Teddy Bear Disagree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: heads WNW after that along the border I was meaning what is likely to happen in this setup.. not what the rest of this op run depicted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, Hoth said: Saxby? I’m going to have to look. Pre 1900 I know. Edit.. I was wrong, it was hurricane Gerda in ‘69 at Eastport ME 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: and i still won't see anything out of it lol Charter a boat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 25 minutes ago, MJO812 said: People who already gave up with Teddy are probably the same ones who gave up with the past storms that hit the northeast. Ease off the trophy throttle - hahaha.. That scenario offered up with that capture stuff is both outside of the Euro's wheelhouse, but also ...so damn unusual that it is perfectly justifiable to discount it as very likely - Nothing is impossible? Of course not... If you through 10,000 scenarios at reality, someone will eventually get bitten... but that means you had a .001% chance of an impact out of a single opportunity - ..yeah, rationally, I'd tend to give up when there's a 99.999% of not having the galactically absurd scenario take place. That said, I would caution for the general user/reader that the Euro tends to subtle meridian bias beyond D4.5 ...often taking troughs that are hinted up over Alberta and Manitoba ..etc., and over deepening through SE Canada. If one applies that possible bias in this situation - which in fact one should - the model could be doing so with the SW aspect of that diving flow out there "beyond it's wheelhouse" ...which than transitively if not directly results in the capture scenario - It is no wonder that the GFS, ...having the opposite bias in its mid and extended range, that being too progressive and stretching wave structures in the west to east ( while strangely being too cold with heights over Canada as a confusion... interesting - ), doesn't presently anticipate any capture at all.. In other words, we could easily be just looking at respective model bias creating their own fantasies about what that time range will be over the west Atlantic, and then as completely objective members of a lucid, incisively witted hoi polloi that we are ( that have NO interest in getting drama fed via exciting model solutions, to boot ) are then picking the models that seem to fit that agenda best... lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Disagree. Those 2 TC look well out of the picture before Teddy is even near the coast. The approaching H over the GL looks to have the biggest impact on Teddy as well as the speed of the storm itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Don’t do it........ 3 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Don’t do it........ Ant's got TC feevah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Just happy to have something to track despite the odds. It’s like buying a lottery ticket 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Hurricanes passing with 100 nm of Bermuda in September. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 lfg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 EPS is more interesting too. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Bad news for Bermuda......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Hurricanes passing with 100 nm of Bermuda in September. Did any of them have a cut off low to phase with ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Hurricanes passing with 100 nm of Bermuda in September. Which one hit NC? That's a wild track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Bad news for Bermuda......... agree They are going to get hit really hard again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS is more interesting too. LOL. More boogie boarding for Steve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Which one hit NC? That's a wild track. That's Ginger (1971). A really weird one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: That would be so difficult to do. I’m not saying NE winds and a few showers...that is possible. I mean full on beast storm here. Even for Nova Scotia that isn’t easy to do, but much higher chance there. You’d need a huge cutoff and full on block. I’m not sure that’s enough to bring it literally due west for hundreds of miles. Ain Hapnin James 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Hwrf leaves teddy somewhere near 30.5N/68.5W, hr 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS is more interesting too. LOL. No kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 What's Unc been doing with this? It's had a pretty good run this summer, hasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Same but for 200 NM. ECMWF/EPS as modeled is a very unusual track. Could happen, but something to keep in mind when looking at model solutions. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Just now, Dr. Dews said: Hrwf leaves teddy somewhere near 30.5N/68.5W, hr 126. Congrats Moose Island Maine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, Hoth said: More boogie boarding for Steve? No boogie in this bod. We body board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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