The 4 Seasons Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: ::Clown:: He's getting blasted on twitter, and still defending himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 Cranky drunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 Cranky swore that Laura was maxing out as a Cat 2 and would weaken before landfall. He's The Onion of Twitter weather 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 When Sally met NOLA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 How can you even look at that satellite pic and defend a tropical storm characterization?....nevermind any flight data. Cranky gonna cranky. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Perfect Storm 2? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Intensity didn't change for Final Call, but track shifted somewhat east. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/hurricane-sallys-approach-final-call.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: How can you even look at that satellite pic and defend a tropical storm characterization?....nevermind any flight data. Cranky gonna cranky. And he is standing by what he said and is saying with this explanation... I'm also getting a ton of backlash from his followers (some of them) for calling him out. He did the same thing with Laura saying it would max out on Cat 2 (and weaken before landfall) when it was already Cat 3 and eventually turned high end Cat 4. I'm curious what you have to say about his rebuttals to the criticism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 It clearly was not a TS at the time. Every piece of data pointed to it. You also had buoys showing winds at hurricane force too. Based on his track record, he’s nothing more than somebody trying to be different and has done so in a foolish way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Have a feeling I am going to spark a Hadley cell diatribe, but anyone else noticing an increase in the frequency for tropical systems that slow to a crawl and/or stall between say 25 & 35 degrees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Have a feeling I am going to spark a Hadley cell diatribe, but anyone else noticing an increase in the frequency for tropical systems that slow to a crawl and/or stall between say 25 & 35 degrees? I saw some documentation on that, but there wasn't really anything conclusive. I'm sure it will be watched going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 I'm actually more intrigued by the 'sputtering' tendency of the Basin...everywhere, perpetually - something is acting as an inhibitor .. flattening development curves. Any cyclone attempting to formulate in that seems to be encountering crucial thermodynamic disruptions - obviously ...otherwise, we would not have Teddy's taking 96 hours to mature through 20 kts of wind and 10 mb or pressure coring - and it is not 'SAL' alone. This is not just dust. It's dry air whether there is SAL layering involved or not and it is unusual to be that pervasive. As well, its persistence suggests it is being supplied and hemispheric scope. Regardless previous week(s) orientation of dust from off of Africa ..timing those mass ejecta ...all of that. Irrelevant, because the dust dosing into each individual TC has not been the same, yet they all act to sputter, ...immediately by logic argues that the cause for sputtering is elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 As far as Teddy and track guidance... wow - the models are relentless. Just stubbornly offering zero hope it's nope! only less than climate solution can ever happen. Typically cyclones do not yank violently N out of 10 to 15 N latitude like the models are insisting will happen. That is supposed to be observable by this evening to 06z ... in that time frame, we should see it moving NW or even NNW if you believe in some climate-flouting guidance types, and accelerating to not only do the odd thing but to do it like they really mean it! lol Anyway, there seems to be some sort of impermeable wall of steering conduit that has set up out there near Bermuda's longitude. We seem to running two distinct TC seasons: one east of there, and then whatever takes place 'home grown'. It's almost like we need to keep any MDR wave flat in the troposphere ..a.k.a., weak, such that they sneak under said axis, then once west and they start developing vertical engine/mechanically, then there is hope for carnage seeking cane enthusiasts that don't think that pandemic and wild fire dystopia is enough - 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm actually more intrigued by the 'sputtering' tendency of the Basin...everywhere, perpetually - something is acting as an inhibitor .. flattening development curves. Any cyclone attempting to formulate in that seems to be encountering crucial thermodynamic disruptions - obviously ...otherwise, we would not have Teddy's taking 96 hours to mature through 20 kts of wind and 10 mb or pressure coring - and it is not 'SAL' alone. This is not just dust. It's dry air whether there is SAL layering involved or not and it is unusual to be that pervasive. As well, its persistence suggests it is being supplied and hemispheric scope. Regardless previous week(s) orientation of dust from off of Africa ..timing those mass ejecta ...all of that. Irrelevant, because the dust dosing into each individual TC has not been the same, yet they all act to sputter, ...immediately by logic argues that the cause for sputtering is elsewhere. Everyone is spanking off to the number of storms, and that is impressive...but that is a small part of the story. I am not impressed at all when once uses ACE given the number of storms. It's barely above climo! In fact, the WPAC is quiet too and as far as northern hemi ACE goes, it is significantly below normal. There has definitely been shear, dry air...whatever over the MDR into the eastern CARB and that has hurt the quality of storms. We are almost done with the African easterly wave stuff now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Congenitally disabled tropical Storm Teddy Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive ...TEDDY EXPECTED TO DEFY SEASONAL TREND TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFULLY IRRELEVANT MDR HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS IF EVER... 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 15 Location: 13.7°N 46.0°W Moving: WNW at 12 mph Min pressure: 1001 mb Max sustained: 60 mph Public Advisory #11500 AM AST Aviso Publico* #11500 AM EDT Forecast Advisory #110900 UTC Forecast Discussion #11500 AM AST Wind Speed Probabilities #110900 UTC Wind Speed Probabilities Arrival Time of Winds Wind History Warnings/Cone Interactive Map Warnings/Cone Static Images Warnings and Surface Wind 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Everyone is spanking off to the number of storms, and that is impressive...but that is a small part of the story. I am not impressed at all when once uses ACE given the number of storms. It's barely above climo! In fact, the WPAC is quiet too and as far as northern hemi ACE goes, it is significantly below normal. There has definitely been shear, dry air...whatever over the MDR into the eastern CARB and that has hurt the quality of storms. We are almost done with the African easterly wave stuff now too. Yup that too - ...I thought of that after that post, can't forget all the observed shear. Just look at 98L out there sitting S of the CVs over the far eastern Atlantic. Entering into the MDR, we see yet again, west ripped CB's with their vils some 200 nautical mi downstream of their of the LFC's point .. like 10 minutes after cauliflowering. Obviously some sarcasm there. But I've never seen that much E shear at that latitude. I mean it's like it has the same mass-transport efficiency as a westlies' jet at mid latitudes. Really rather remarkable. You know .. I remember back in in the 1980s as a youngin', relying upon the education that we all had to rely upon as fledgling tormented weather-souls, 'TWC' tropical update guys at 22 minutes and 52 minutes passed the hour. Outside shooting hopes... up! be right back - ..heh, anyway, they were always hinting statements like, 'with east flow in the tropics becoming more prevalent, we need to watch x-y-z' ... John Hope was one. I bet that guy'ed roll in grave if he knew there was a Jovian wind band coming from Egyptic enchanted lands of aridity and plague. ugh. Yeah Chris - this is probably the under-cast of the HC working lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 I thought we were supposed to be in a climate heavy hit couple of decades for TC ... Maybe I have that off ? But I thought it was supposed be a 20 to 30 years periodicity of Atl frequency. I'll look that up the steadily declining dependability of the Internet as a veracious information source - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 the only important thing is what does this whole season long dynamic imply for winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Oh my 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Was just going to post the ICON. Epic disaster if that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: the only important thing is what does this whole season long dynamic imply for winter? it means ... noooOOO snow for you, ONE YEAR! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Still heading west but goes out to 180 wow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Taken verbatim is that “Teddy”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 It's the 500 mb that's the fascinating aspect - It actually shows a similar evolution in principle to the Euro, just that the implication at the discrete level of impacts and results is different - time and space... Euro is weaker as a surface result, and has the dynamic mid level interplay between the cut-off and the capturing all taking place up in the Maritimes...which is probably statistically/climate-wise more likely but just comparing here.. Also, the GGEM had this sort of fusing interplay yesterday on the 12z version but lost it last night ... Sandy showed us that although these look outre, we cannot toss them out of hand because Sandy in fact did exactly this - although there is distinguishing if perhaps crucial difference .. in that the governing flow was heavily being instructed by a fantastic early season west-base NAO plunge that set up blocking near the lower D. Straight and sent everything into the MA including Sandy - I am not sure that is all in the cards here... But, in a vacuum, yes...cut-offs can sometimes fuse in - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Just now, Cyclone-68 said: Taken verbatim is that “Teddy”? Yup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Maybe but the eps yesterday had some members like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 ineedtoletgo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Isn’t that scenario basically Sandy about 200 miles north? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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