Typhoon Tip Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 Heh... we know winter's near anyway. Why? Because the GGEM has formally put out its first solution that just couldn't wait for the opportunity to infuse a cold core tropospheric cut off with a captured Teddy out there in the extended around NS - it's a right of a passage for every season that the GGEM do this ...annnd, it signals a hard stop to the season 2 days later according to that model's imagination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We've had some nasty hybrid storms here. Oct 2017 and Oct 2019. Both storms had significant damage, but last year was more on the coast. Oct 2017 was fairly widespread. Oct 2005 was pretty nasty too...remnants of Wilma got a bit entrained. Also Noel in Nov 2007...a bunch of us chased that out on the Cape. Might have been right before you joined the forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Oct 2005 was pretty nasty too...remnants of Wilma got a bit entrained. Also Noel in Nov 2007...a bunch of us chased that out on the Cape. Might have been right before you joined the forums. I don't remember 2005 other than the snow it gave up in the Whites. Yeah Noel was a good one too. You guys were sand blasted on the Cape..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: We've had some nasty hybrid storms here. Oct 2017 and Oct 2019. Both storms had significant damage, but last year was more on the coast. Oct 2017 was fairly widespread. Lots less tree damage in Maine from 2019 than 2 years earlier, but we lost power for longer in '19 and I had to cut my way out of our road so I could meet the green-certification auditors for the final day of last year's audit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 14, 2020 Author Share Posted September 14, 2020 big drop in pressure on latest pass (Sally) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 I wouldn’t mind a Greek named storm. That would be tough to forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: I wouldn’t mind a Greek named storm. That would be tough to forget 2005 was the only other year. Wilma was the last in the alphabet before we went to Alpha. Made it all the way to Zeta in Greek alphabet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Sally going wild with half an eyewall. Say what you will about the MDR and lack of pop out there, but every single hurricane within about 100 miles of the US coast this season has exploded close to landfall. We mentioned over an hour ago this was RI prone - ..yup, and this also matches the conversation we had two days ago, re there is perhaps a precedence for strengthening west of 70 W across the Basin - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 Depends how we are determining the eye structure... if rad: Seeing as the far side of the perceived eye is actually near the edge of the rad range - even at long channels... - it may have more a closed eye than we think. But I have seen recon messaging - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 Sally gone wild. Wasn't sure if it could, but we boom now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 Three years ago today I was in New Orleans to see the Pats play the Saints. Looks like I was three years too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 Teddy gone wild Shifted west. Bermuda direct hit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 14, 2020 Author Share Posted September 14, 2020 teddy looks to get close to NF/NNS on GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Oct 2005 was pretty nasty too...remnants of Wilma got a bit entrained. Also Noel in Nov 2007...a bunch of us chased that out on the Cape. Might have been right before you joined the forums. The good ole days. Trash bags and sand blasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 Canadian maritime interests are gonna have to keep and eye on Teddy. Eastern NE should keep tabs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 Yeah ... Teddy's accurate track handling over the next 60 hours - I think - may be more crucial in the evolution after that ...namely as far as how much/when the polarward motion takes place. One thing that Teddy is different than predecessors is that the cyclone's present location and recent evolution have all been quite far to the S ... I've been toying with the notion that models are bit too eager to pull Teddy out of such a deep latitude. Perhaps this is because there is a combined 'beta drift' superimposing along with a subtle weakness in ridging/steering nearing 60W. Alone these factors may not be enough but together it's too much and models start the curvature process early. Just the thought.. the 00z Euro does already appear to be demonstrating a slight polarward bias though - it may be interesting to see if that bias continues to emerge over the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 Might even be symbolic to say so ...for lack of better words, but do I think I recall there is a historical signal for a frost/autumnal intrusion of polar air mass through NE 72 hour prior to EC runners... I think if memory recalls some of those 1950s events had this... It's all in the timing. This run is close to bi-passing Teddy with that trough that three runs ago the GFS was using to rip the cyclone out and rocket across the N Atl... That's why it is adjusted west. And again to re-iterate, ...it becomes transitively crucial that the models time the polarward migration right because if they prove too eager to pull Teddy up, than a bi-pass gets more plausible and then suddenly at D5 we have big solution pile of uncertainty steaming on our plates. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 lfg Sally, cat 5! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 Hurricane Teddy just doesn’t have the name gravitas that other storms have had. It sounds like a friend dropping in for a quick drink 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 Cmc also west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 For what it's worth the GEFS has a significant westward shift, with easily 20% of the models raking/making landfall in SNE 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 50 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: For what it's worth the GEFS has a significant westward shift, with easily 20% of the models raking/making landfall in SNE Some are pretty good.. we hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 For what storm? Timmy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: For what storm? Timmy? Teddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 https://imgur.com/aslZ47C What in the world is going on here......is there a nuke under her? that is a perfectly circular explosion of storms i guess.....and gust front? - idk - that goes all the way into central alabama and mississippi.......never seen anything like that and how can i get this to embed rather than a link to click on? Edit: I don't think its a regular outflow boundary.....maybe.....seems maybe in the upper atmos IDK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 Eps all over with teddy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: For what storm? Timmy? Scrooges Timmy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Scrooges Timmy? Tiny Timmy? Tommy Tippy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 This guy... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 4 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said: Hurricane Teddy just doesn’t have the name gravitas that other storms have had. It sounds like a friend dropping in for a quick drink Lol - Oh my god - run for the hills! Hurricane Tickle-Me-Elmo Yeah there should be some at least half-hearted attempt to inspire fear. Like Hurricane Darth Mull ..or Blade or something - actually for that matter, why stop there. Hurricane Denudation outta sum it up. Or the great Hurricane 'stationary lawn-mower'... Yeah, back in 2020 I survived Hurricane heads-rolled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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