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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020


Bostonseminole
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Heh...  we know winter's near anyway. 

Why? 

Because the GGEM has formally put out its first solution that just couldn't wait for the opportunity to infuse a cold core tropospheric cut off with a captured Teddy out there in the extended around NS - it's a right of a passage for every season that the GGEM do this ...annnd, it signals a hard stop to the season 2 days later according to that model's imagination. 

 

 

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32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We've had some nasty hybrid storms here. Oct 2017 and Oct 2019. Both storms had significant damage, but last year was more on the coast. Oct 2017 was fairly widespread. 

Oct 2005 was pretty nasty too...remnants of Wilma got a bit entrained. Also Noel in Nov 2007...a bunch of us chased that out on the Cape. Might have been right before you joined the forums.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Oct 2005 was pretty nasty too...remnants of Wilma got a bit entrained. Also Noel in Nov 2007...a bunch of us chased that out on the Cape. Might have been right before you joined the forums.

I don't remember 2005 other than the snow it gave up in the Whites. Yeah Noel was a good one too. You guys were sand blasted on the Cape..lol.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

We've had some nasty hybrid storms here. Oct 2017 and Oct 2019. Both storms had significant damage, but last year was more on the coast. Oct 2017 was fairly widespread. 

Lots less tree damage in Maine from 2019 than 2 years earlier, but we lost power for longer in '19 and I had to cut my way out of our road so I could meet the green-certification auditors for the final day of last year's audit.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Sally going wild with half an eyewall. Say what you will about the MDR and lack of pop out there, but every single hurricane within about 100 miles of the US coast this season has exploded close to landfall. 

We mentioned over an hour ago this was RI prone - ..yup, and this also matches the conversation we had two days ago, re there is perhaps a precedence for strengthening west of 70 W across the Basin - 

 

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Yeah ... Teddy's accurate track handling over the next 60 hours - I think - may be more crucial in the evolution after that ...namely as far as how much/when the polarward motion takes place. 

One thing that Teddy is different than predecessors is that the cyclone's present location and recent evolution have all been quite far to the S ... I've been toying with the notion that models are bit too eager to pull Teddy out of such a deep latitude. Perhaps this is because there is a combined 'beta drift' superimposing along with a subtle weakness in ridging/steering  nearing 60W.  Alone these factors may not be enough but together it's too much and models start the curvature process early.   Just the thought.. the 00z Euro does already appear to be demonstrating a slight polarward bias though - it may be interesting to see if that bias continues to emerge over the short term. 

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Might even be symbolic to say so ...for lack of better words, but do I think I recall there is a historical signal for a frost/autumnal intrusion of polar air mass through NE 72 hour prior to EC runners... 

I think if memory recalls some of those 1950s events had this...   

It's all in the timing. This run is close to bi-passing Teddy with that trough that three runs ago the GFS was using to rip the cyclone out and rocket across the N Atl... That's why it is adjusted west.   And again to re-iterate, ...it becomes transitively crucial that the models time the polarward migration right because if they prove too eager to pull Teddy up, than a bi-pass gets more plausible and then suddenly at D5 we have big solution pile of uncertainty steaming on our plates. 

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https://imgur.com/aslZ47C

What in the world is going on here......is there a nuke under her?  that is a perfectly circular explosion of storms i guess.....and gust front? - idk - that goes all the way into central alabama and mississippi.......never seen anything like that

and how can i get this to embed rather than a link to click on?

Edit: I don't think its a regular outflow boundary.....maybe.....seems maybe in the upper atmos IDK

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4 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Hurricane Teddy  just doesn’t have the name
gravitas that other storms have had. It  sounds like a friend dropping in for a quick drink 

Lol -

Oh my god - run for the hills!  Hurricane Tickle-Me-Elmo

Yeah there should be some at least half-hearted attempt to inspire fear.  Like Hurricane Darth Mull ..or Blade or something -

actually for that matter, why stop there.  Hurricane Denudation outta sum it up.  Or the great Hurricane 'stationary lawn-mower'...

Yeah, back in 2020 I survived Hurricane heads-rolled

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