CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Everything is recurve for now. You'll have to wait until after 22ish or so for anything threatening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Everything is recurve for now. You'll have to wait until after 22ish or so for anything threatening. Right now it seems that way but if that high builds in quicker or if paulette stays weak it could have a chance a few of the ensembles show that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Right now it seems that way but if that high builds in quicker or if paulette stays weak it could have a chance a few of the ensembles show that.. I'm still tracking that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Sufficed it is to say, the Atlantic Basin is in a volatile state. Out along the MDR there are multiple individual TC or 'zygote' features that we are collectively already privy. The one coming off Africa, like its immediate predecessor, appears somewhat anomalously large. It may also be situated probability-wise better for evading a polarward track bias ( and 'track' is likely, as this thing's about as definite as any for developing), given to its starting lat/lon being so south. Of the main global models there are .. they all have different handling for this thing for the time being however. Closer to Americas there are now three discrete areas of interesting/Invest ... ? Interesting. This entire region sets over-drafted by a modest/light shear troposphere and obviously, there's plenty of oceanic heat content footing. You know ... things can change in a hurry. "Bob," back in 1991 might be the fastest zygote to designation --> credible threat profiled evolution I can recall.. Were there any faster? I think it went from, "uh, hey guys, take a look at this book-end feature" status clear to Cat 3 in 36 hours or something.. Then there is the eastern GOM this morning and out of nowhere there is cyclonic trend in early satellite/long rad from KTBW. This feature might be interesting to spy if anyone can probe through a longer recording .. like a detective asking to "see the tapes" of the parking lot outside the store where the crime took place. I am not so sure of its spontaneity and/or whether it was identifiable/traceable back to perhaps a designated invest/defunct irrelevant feature. Sometimes these things come in and out of favor for development ..only to haunt later on once there is certainly been established, 0 attention or even memory of them... Spontaneity happens too. I've seen the region over the western Gulf just start turning for no reason (seemingly..). Anyway, the one nearly stationary over the outer Bahamas is actually traceable back to a TUTT that rotted its way W over the last three days or so... at least per my own recollection. It's rare for TUTTs to drill their way down to the surface an acquire characteristics because they have to overcome the depth of the atmosphere... plus their own thermodynamic engines have to convert from cold to warm cores; which takes the known age of the visible cosmos to do... Sometimes they do though if given a long enough. Usually, the areal circumvallate sort of loses momentum while the core increasingly teems with bubbling CB activity ..and then transitions from the inside out... This one seems close.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 As an aside ... just a snark observation. This last week of modeling and still, is quintessentially perfect for NOT impacting the eastern seaboard from any MDR source as can possibly be constructed by whatever director ultimately runs the tropical show every year. LOL. Steering fields show weaknesses everywhere, such that objects cannot maintain un-perturbed westerly tracks - necessary to succeed the breadth of the Basin being impetus ... Meanwhile, there is an ongoing .. usually long R-wave structures for this time of the year stretching from the eastern Pacific to England around this side of the NH ... which is code for tendencies for enhanced W-E mid and upper level tropospheric balanced winds. Any TC that even senses that physical capture almost immediately .. violently careens a recurvature behavior NE-E in the models. See-ya! Could be the most active three weeks of irrelevancy ever observed - thanks for donated a month of your life for nothing. Maybe one of these 'homegrown' features can find least excuse imaginable to impose what you want in your backyard, somewhere else too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Another valid point of snark ... Despite my own recent hints at interest if not exuberance for Paulette and or Rene... presently? These two are 'sputtering' ... it's like the last week was an attempt to fool people into paying attention while sneakily still sputtering - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 On 9/8/2020 at 9:53 PM, kdxken said: So we're not getting a hurricane this weekend? I was promised a landfalling major this weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 There's been a strange 'emergent' pattern of miss-direction by all atmospheric constituencies for like 18 months. I'm seeing these weird offset coincidences. Earlier this season ... we had two or perhaps three trough incursions into the 80 W .. almost as vestigial 'shear axis,' but still strong enough to impose a S-N steering flow along the EC and/or astride the coast from Florida all the way to Maine. And during all of those, a paltry TC or it's remnants (being overly designated out of PR/warning system protocols ) were sucked up into that flow. That sort of 'implied' a seasonal precedence for getting the job done? As for any MDR Verdi express, and seasonal trend thus supporting, lets capture one and course work it into that favorable repetition. Nope ... Winters have been doing miss-directions for a different reality of reasons .. but it's happening everywhere in space and time, where ominous signals portend an eerie future where nothing ultimately happens. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 To myself an eerie future where nothing happens would be in and of itself, ominous 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 GFS/Euro show that wave coming off Africa near DR; of course being 10 days we will see if there is any consistency. Having generator inter-lock installed right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 The next one off Africa is our 38 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said: I was promised a landfalling major this weekend. i believe the exact words were "game fooking on" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: The next one off Africa is our 38 we aren't going to get even a Bob 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 10, 2020 Author Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 minute ago, correnjim1 said: we aren't going to get even a Bob that's going to be a long track storm, GFS has it coming off Africa late tomorrow, almost the whole GFS run up to the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: that's going to be a long track storm, GFS has it coming off Africa late tomorrow, almost the whole GFS run up to the coast. Nice! Stupid question. Does anyone have a good link to recommend to check out the future model runs of these storms? I don’t mind subscribing if I need to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 10, 2020 Author Share Posted September 10, 2020 Free- Tropical tidbits & Pivotal Weather I use Stormvistawxmodels for paid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Three GFS runs in a row take the wave off African up the west coast of Florida. Might as well lock that in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Three GFS runs in a row take the wave off African up the west coast of Florida. Might as well lock that in. what a month from now? lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 33 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: what a month from now? lol By the time it hits, i'm hoping it can merge with a canadian Airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 10, 2020 Author Share Posted September 10, 2020 drought over per that GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: By the time it hits, i'm hoping it can merge with a canadian Airmass hopefully giving us a white Christmas lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 We're verifying the hydro concerns as planned ... just a bit higher up the coast than - Man... D.C.'s western beltway and 'burbs got clocked with training water-boarding downpours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Should be some solid surf next week, per GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: We're verifying the hydro concerns as planned ... just a bit higher up the coast than - Man... D.C.'s western beltway and 'burbs got clocked with training water-boarding downpours Who is? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 On 7/22/2020 at 12:32 PM, Typhoon Tip said: .... I don't see it based upon super-synoptic hemispheric trends ... not even close. We have a central/mid-latitude CONUS ridge that keeps burgeoning and then sort of doing a hemispheric-scaled Kelvin-Hemholtz tumble-over... evidenced in the counter-balanced tendency to dive the wind field through the Martimes. .... Now, ... it's not IMpossible to have an anomaly relative to the persistence above ...set up just in time... Shit happens... But, it seems the longitudinal flow/progressivity in the means is both trend, and has planetary super-synoptic scale motivators for being that way... Namely, the expanded HC seems to be expressing this summer... It is making for increased ambient velocities at mid levels and that doesn't really physically support meridian flow structures - like placing a negative hydrostatic anomaly over WV and sucking a cane up toward or into the NY Bite... Just in short, a ridge axis 90 to 80W that is sharply ablating from the NW along and E of 70 ... even though the GFS does so too much... in a lesser variation of the GFS ...still deflects and hooks seaward N of the Del Marva Bump ... I think we're seeing these large scale track influences playing out - ...Yeah, I know. Sucks to make the right, albeit hated call thus wantonly ignored call so early, dooming a whole season so early in the game. Any devotion based upon delusion and allowing one to be beguiled along the way into wasting more time waiting. You are only given what... 70 .. 80... 100 years if you're super lucky - thanks for charitably donating 2.5 months of your existence with zero chance for anything in return - gosh your kind. lol. Kidding but seriously, these sort violent recurve scenarios? They were easily envisioned as a seasonal limitation ... back in June really, as a base canvas p.o.s. season problem. The thing is, it really was interesting that three weak and or vestigial systems did come up along the coast. It was as though those were "getting lucky," as a less sophisticated labeling, because the governing biases as described above .. they just managed to temporarily break down during late June through early August during those passages. Transiently ...there were a favorable steering field scenarios that lasted in some case ... 2 days - just long enough to guide tracks closer in. But, that 'luck,' having occurred three times over, sort of set a precedence for 'getting lucky' in itself - ha. I gambler rolls sevens on a Fire bet at Craps three times, he's likely to draw other betters to the table. However, I find it harder to envision getting lucky going forward. The seasonal migration of heights has already began in the models. This is imposing an abruptly hostile ... really physically impossible look. You can see higher compression/gradient anomalies ( relative to this early in the season and endemic to the last 8 to 10 years of climate) already pressing south and lengthening the R-wave structures, increasing the velocities... all of which are manifesting as progressive synoptic wave behavior with winds so strong it makes the curvature harder ... that's what happens when you have fast flow. It stretches in the W-E coordinate...etc.. This is why storm behavior over the last 10 years have demoed more and more fast motion and shredded systems. It tends to more open QPF loading in models, moving quickly along... And those systems that do time and place jet cross sections exquisitely in a narrowed margin for error, do bomb, but are bombs moving 40 kts by a locations - odd.... digress, but typically 'bombs' slow down. Those Dec '92 type storms are getting increasingly harder to find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 That region over the lower/outer Bahama is cool. It had no rotation this morning...now you can see how it's just started imploding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: That region over the lower/outer Bahama is cool. It had no rotation this morning...now you can see how it's just started imploding Models missed that one.. definitely ramping up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Models missed that one.. definitely ramping up Models have been atrocious with the tropics 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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