Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 It's interesting so far, the evolution of Paulette in the guidance.. Firstly, they are all undercooked wrt to the system's intensity as of this morning - ...not sure if/how/when that should be modulating anticipations for this thing, ...if so, in interpretation or in future guidance, et al. That said, all guidance save the NAVGEM ( which ...yeah - ), ensue a weakening trend at some point over the next ... nearer term, and then out deeper in the mid range, a holding on Paulette re-intensifies markedly in some models at that. This attenuation followed by restructuring is because Paulette has one of two options: - it either gets picked up by the trough as a steering influencer, and recurves early... which appears less likely - - it doesn't get picked up, and as it slices through underneath the steering/somehow physically evading that influence, that means that it's time passing thru the trough axis becomes a shearing inhibition. It is also possible - in my mind - that the trough is over loaded in the guidance. The Euro cluster seems to almost hint this, as it keeps the cyclone S of really polarward turn, but also seeing the EPS cluster with a surprisingly coherent cyclonic impression in the coarser pressure pattern evolution as it ends up between the 60th and 70th longitude lines at D7 almost argues for less trough inhibition - ie., weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 Man... hard to resist! The sci fi author in me wants to take "Rene" to the winds of zyberon when eyes lay upon that high res, mid day visible loop imagery - c/o Tropical Tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=18L&product=vis ... At mid latitudes (by convention of geometry being precisely along the 45th parallel as it were...) 1 deg of lat or lon ~ 69 nautical miles. So, applying that across the spread of this URL's layout directly implies there are over 750 nautical miles in every direction, diametrically involved in Rene's circulation circumvallate. That is a truly massive amount of momentum - ....how ironic! Because we are debating the ACE versus 'seasonal complexion' issue as of late in here, and this system seems to mock that debate - lol. That's gotta be putting up some decent ACE ( individual aggregate ) values just by virtue of so much mass, despite a speckled, pallid convection display. I mean look at that - the entire frame in every direction is captured in the fledgling TC's pressure well - that's a very large system. Large systems take a while to gain strength for a host of geo-physical popsicle headache reasons ...but just assuming that is true: once they get that momentum - gee, the sci fi author in anyone is tempted to wonder if that means they also are more resistant to hostility and both become more resistant to weakening but the speed in doing so. I mean, if these extension(ed) outer bands convect and rain out deposition dust and/or mix dry air attempting to intrude into the inner core, they may sort of act like a rampart and protect - I don't know if that's true. I haven't read any papers the specifically show that to be the case for large systems...but it seems intuitively plausible that big systems made be able to moat off the outside hostility of dry air ( possible shear) by virtue of their size. fascinating - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 that's crazy! wow... ~ 500 miles orthogonally SW of the best ( subjective ...) interpretation of where Rene's present circulation center is located, we see cloud motions in cyclonic arc moving at some 30 to 40 kts at CU depth toward the E ... this thing is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 Unfortunately, it's the Shear that is most likely going to make this season more unimpressive than anything else. It's killing/keeping down most everything that tries to get going. It's active, but being hugely suppressed by the shear it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 It also depends on what one is motivated to 'impress' by, too - I mean if the current frenzy proves faux in terms development, we'll eval why... but, my resent opines were not based upon what we are seeing now. It was 'unimpressed' based upon what had happened "to date" - what's going on now doesn't compare. Having three entities concurrently, with modeled bombs either using them or generating new ( and there's yet another impressive zygote wave over Africa about to get injected into contention ) raises the bar legit for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 HMON ... what is that... I guess I could google it - but that model's markedly trended two ways: -- imposes less shear on Paulette such that the cyclone maintains integrity as it penetrates any trough axis - either weaker trough or just less shear in general -- corrects the ending position markedly to the left by some 800 naut mi.. based on what we've been discussing, can't say that's shocking. GGEM did this too.. curious where the Euro is - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 Peyronies disease? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Peyronies disease? Other than a few deep members heading towards the Bahamas: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoth said: Other than a few deep members heading towards the Bahamas: There are a few bombs into SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: There are a few bombs into SNE There's always a little eye candy this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 Boring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 So we're not getting a hurricane this weekend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: NHC had Sally becoming a hurricane in 48 hours and now it’s a depression lol. MDR just doesn’t have it this season lol. Yeah, it's over 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 Might have a better chance post 9/15 in MDR as guidance looks to have more favorable conditions then? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Might have a better chance post 9/15 in MDR as guidance looks to have more favorable conditions then? Yep looks good for a Caribbean cruiser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said: Yeah, it's over I guess you haven't followed anything this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 I decided I’d be ok with a repeat of Hurricane Belle circa 1976. Anything to break the monotony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Might have a better chance post 9/15 in MDR as guidance looks to have more favorable conditions then? Mm hm yup.. I was musing this morning ..with climo change, we shoulda coulda sorta maybe be pushing the "september remember, october all-over" heritage yore into something more like "start remembering in september and probably Sandy-f! the hell oughtta the eastern seaboard with increasingly chances due to thermal surplus along seasonal budgeting lagging deeper and deeper into autumns" Doesn't really rhyme nearly as appealingly so .. no, but lagging the cane season isn't exactly a terrible intuitive fit considering. As an afterthought - that does open the interesting prospect ( conceptually ...) for more cold trough interaction chances. Any opportunistic cyclones that venture close to those steering field gravity wells ... heh. Sandy did in fact rapid transition into a cold core as an example ..loosely so, of one of these. Most of big media press coverage focused on the specter of surf, tide and wind impacts... but few may recall, she tossed PWAT over a cold incursion taking place along the western cordillera... and huge snow within 24 hours erupted in the else of WV.. And in fact, one wouldn't be wrong to suggest thermodynamically this occurred while the core was still hot - People are funny ... if there isn't a Cat 4 with a Satan's eye peering up the EC at all times their hands demo maturity and patience by violently typing posts about how the season's over.. ha! But, as drama - junkies that all people born since .. oh, 1955 are ..which is 70%+ of the techno-bathed neon zapped souls of modern population, it really does act like a psychotropic drug addiction and there's no tolerance for having to wait for the next high. Oh the pain of rehab... I guess it's better to tune in for histrionic surge on a weather forum rather than circuiting that fix through Fentenyl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said: I decided I’d be ok with a repeat of Hurricane Belle circa 1976. Anything to break the monotony There's not much monotonous about this .. There are four active sites on the weather map - I just mused this phenomenon ... it's getting out of control. Almost not in a ha-ha way, too, how people seem to have been conditioned to expect this unrealistically ratched up level of scary drama ... Guys/girls... hey, cinema in nature does not happen at the speed of human imagination or ingenuity - The fact that these have sort of exceeded the expediency of the former, does hearken in my mind to the homage of Humanity's conceits and achievements , specifically as a singular event, as being the real and most dramatic anomaly about this planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: There's not much monotonous about this .. There are four active sites on the weather map - I just mused this phenomenon ... it's getting out of control. Almost not in a ha-ha way, too, how people seem to have been conditioned to expect this unrealistically ratched up level of scary drama ... Guys/girls... hey, cinema in nature does not happen at the speed of human imagination or ingenuity - Oh I know that. But wouldn’t it be great if it did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 22 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said: Oh I know that. But wouldn’t it be great if it did? I don't think so... it wouldn't - here is the problem... If it did, there would be a real apocalypse - not just an entertainment that frankly has become immoral as we sit from afar and watch these carnages play out. Whether you realize this or not, for having formulated that particular sentiment/reply .. , the truth is, one assumes protection as being permanent and infallible. If they truly felt or connected mortal fear of the forces of nature ... one would not 'gloat' and relish in such engagements. But, no... unplug this grid, and send a true Ebola pandemic through the population, all concurrent with a Yellowstone eruption... and what-the-hell-else can be thrown in.. how about continental displacement theory ... and when you are staring at the finality of your existence with 20 seconds before assurety - trying saying that...? Truth is, we are addled by convenience across generations and operate within a faux assumption of security that is entirely profligately provided ( btw ..hense GW because of mankind activities... etc etc...), this has become a complacent disrespect of our fragility - one that has been enabled by that same technological bubble said profligate entitlement provides. Yuck. Moreover, ( supposition) since the day's activities are no longer distracted from real virtuosity in survival achievement, spanning too many generations .. we've lost the physicality to remind anyone or group think of the real forms of earth-connect provisional challenges. Interesting...without those challenges, people are actually kind of instinctually turning to find reasons to fill that survival fear void, and they are using the psychotropic society to fulfill it - with fake news it's creepy ...it's soulless vapidity operating purely by manipulation... I don't know ...getting too deep into a principle, ethic and virtue topic for this venue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I don't think so... it wouldn't - here is the problem... If it did, there would be a real apocalypse - not just an entertainment that frankly has become immoral as we sit from afar and watch these carnages play out. Whether you realize this or not, for having formulated that particular sentiment/reply .. , the truth is, one assumes protection as being permanent and infallible. If they truly felt or connected mortal fear of the forces of nature ... one would not 'gloat' and relish in such engagements. But, no... unplug this grid, and send a true Ebola pandemic through the population, all concurrent with a Yellowstone eruption... and what-the-hell-else can be thrown in.. how about continental displacement theory ... and when you are staring at the finality of your existence with 20 seconds before assurety - trying saying that...? Truth is, we are addled by convenience across generations and operate within a faux assumption of security that is entirely profligately provided ( btw ..hense GW because of mankind activities... etc etc...), this has become a complacent disrespect of our fragility. Moreover, ( supposition) since the day's activities are no longer are distracted, spanning too many generations to remind anyone or group think with the real agriculture and hunting and earth-connect provisional challenges that have become root culture-based... people are actually kind of instinctually turning to find reasons to fill that survival fear void, and they are using the psychotropic society to fulfill it - it's creepy ...it's soulless vapidity operating purely by manipulation... I don't know ...getting too deep into a principle, ethic and virtue topic for this venue. Thanks for the response. Certainly food for thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 Lol @ Bermuda on the para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 Hr 384 cane here 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 1938! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Shot gun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 With the next two waves coming off Africa lower in latitude might make the difference in evading an unusually meridional flow structure out there in the Atlantic. I thought Paulette was going to correct to the left frankly and it just does not seem like that’s destined to happen… It was not without precedent we’ve been doing it all season it’s just not gonna happen this time with that one. The hell knows what’s going to happen to Renee… It looks like the models can’t resist some kind of binary interaction with Paulette and it’s screwing up their track guidance with Renee because there’s all kinds of weird solution spraying all over the basin with that thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: With the next two waves coming off Africa lower in latitude might make the difference in evading an unusually meridional flow structure out there in the Atlantic. I thought Paulette was going to correct to the left frankly and it just does not seem like that’s destined to happen… It was not without precedent we’ve been doing it all season it’s just not gonna happen this time with that one. The hell knows what’s going to happen to Renee… It looks like the models can’t resist some kind of binary interaction with Paulette and it’s screwing up their track guidance with Renee because there’s all kinds of weird solution spraying all over the basin with that thing Euro came west a bit at 0z.. GEFS look fun in the long range.. we wait and hope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Euro ensembles also west but recurve.. something to watch but not likely.. the one coming off Africa could be fun for the east coast but a ways out.. also just noticed weather nerds has the 6z and 18z Euro ensembles.. Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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