SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

[Typhoon Tip]

Sputtering continues ...

[ineedsnow]

20 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Already more coming west. Game fooking om

folks!

We watch!

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

We watch!

AWT

[ineedsnow]

Tropical Storm on the ICON?

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Tropical Storm on the ICON?

NHC has a lemon off the mid atlantic coast. This is it.

[MJO812]

[Damage In Tolland]

Cane for us next weekend it seems . 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

@ineedsnow the signal is there on the guidance for some development, but it's still a weak signal. It's getting sheared right now, but that zone off the SE coast has been a hotbed for TC genesis this season. It'd be good to see the Euro ensemble signal increase. It's worth a casual eye. 

What are your thoughts on the parade of MDR potential distrubances and the key to them not recurving at 55w

[STILL N OF PIKE]

So much for that big bad WAR...looks  A LOT more troughy for mid september than the LR did a week ago. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Still sputtering...

[Typhoon Tip]

TD

[CoastalWx]

Quantity over Quality this year. Except for 18hrs when Laura RI’d.....season has been loaded with crap storms. 

[WinterWolf]

51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Quantity over Quality this year. Except for 18hrs when Laura RI’d.....season has been loaded with crap storms. 

Lol..agree!  But don’t say that over in the tropical headquarters...the peeps there go crazy when posts like that show up.   It’s been a crazy year according to some over there cuz we’re on the “O” named storm.    Lol.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Quantity over Quality this year. Except for 18hrs when Laura RI’d.....season has been loaded with crap storms. 

Yeah you and I have been posting about this limping cyclone tendency, since the season began really.  

There's been some( I think shear tendencies ) oddities working to mitigating 'developmental acceleration' in general, at other times... SAL perhaps? But peculiar that when it's not one, its the other.  And they are tag-teaming their assault, too  lol.

You know like in the winter time, you get into these rich-get-richer scenarios and it seems like it can't not snow?  .. then of course, we get into 10 years where it never does but that's a different lament. Trend in luck is frustrating... it argues that NCEP and NASA should release a press bulletin telling everyone to lower their guard and make fun of the gods ... because they're out to f over those seeking entertainment on purpose so obsessively, regular civility won't have to worry about actually getting impacted.  Oh wait...Laura -

The shear has been interesting - I mean, ..not so much for those seeking 'cane cinema of course.  It's all been easterly shear at mid and upper troposphere.  Like the whole slab of the tropical atmosphere between 700 and the 300 mb levels has been plagued in a deep easterly f'um jet stream blasting from Libya to the Leewards.   

Whether it's wind anomalies relaying into dry air reasons and back, we haven't really seen a system not be impeded.

Despite the two tropical depressions we now see as of this early morning out there in the MDR, even these have taken quite a foot-tapping while to structure, compared to other aggressive 'seasonal complexions' in the past where you didn't dare send up a shower tower without denuding a island of its inhabitants.  This lead one, TD 17 ... has been a torn open ravioli out there for four days, at time spent with cyclone curved features.  Per close up visible/WV channels as there did appear to be shear quite strong from the east, with anvil shreds ripping away at some 50 kt!  It's alleviated now though so we'll see if this one goes.  

 

[Great Snow 1717]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol..agree!  But don’t say that over in the tropical headquarters...the peeps there go crazy when posts like that show up.   It’s been a crazy year according to some over there cuz we’re on the “O” named storm.    Lol.

Sort of like when a hitter has a 20 game hitting streak but is batting .240 during the streak.  

[tamarack]

31 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Sort of like when a hitter has a 20 game hitting streak but is batting .240 during the streak.  

But if one of those 1-per-game hits is a "perfect" grand slam, 2-out walkoff while 3 runs down, that's what folks will remember.  A 20-game streak with .400 BA but only one HR (this year) or the "perfect slam" (1992 when August 15 arrived w/o a singe named storm), it only takes one - as many have noted - and this year is "one, so far".   

Edit:  I wonder if the recent awakening of the previously somnambulant West PAC has any bearing on our TCs.

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

You know where I stand lol. I think this season deserves more respect than it's been given but that's not to say that it hasn't underperformed (so far) in producing the eye candy and ACE that people want to see. Barely normal ACE for a season with 15 named storms is eye popping for the wrong reason.

I also agree that for a mostly favorable environment storms have sputtered, but the hurricanes that have made landfall in the US (Hanna, Isaias, Laura) were all rapidly intensifying on final approach and Isaias (probably) and Laura (definitely) get retired. How does that not fit into subjective analysis?

I think with tropical it is way too easy to get caught up in the here and now rather than look at the bigger picture. Between now and ~Oct 20 is when ACE historically accumulates most rapidly. That's not weenie contorting to fit a narrative, that's fact. I think we forget that it's September 7th not October 7th. The basin is still active and producing, and we're hitting the peak. I get the hand wringing, I really do. It feels like something is wrong because we were promised a hyperactive season and we don't have the majors.

But...there really is a long way to go in this season. 

I don't languish on this social media platform like it's my primary outlet for human contact or anything ... so taken with the appropriate value:

What or who was denying the significance of any impact, in any scope, objective or subjective?

Where are you getting that ?  Not trying to be a dink - just curious.. 

Everyone with modicum of intelligent perspective knows that ACE, and 'death,' part company and in fact, don't bare any physical relationship other than pure coincidence.  So asking what's 'subjective' anything with regard to that relationships is logically absurd to begin with - it's probably an encouraging sign that no one has.

1992, Andrew ...took place in a very low ACE year - yet ...   hello -

And what does that mean, '...Normal ACE ...with 15 names storms ... eye-popping for the wrong reason'   ?  Nothing is eye-popping, that's an interpretation spike. It's about siting, fairly and based upon real numbers, weak anomaly .. subsequently offering plausible discussion points as to why.

I agree that the season isn't over and that 'now through oct...' blah blah, but the commentary has clearly and coherently been by context, speaking in turns of phrase about 'so far' anyway.

If the season ended now... it's banal and uninspired, but it would be an impression based upon empirical data that colors that illustration - not just subjectivity based upon imagination.

What reasoning is wrong - ...

I guess what it kinda comes down too is that some "subjectivity" has more realistic roots, and some want to kite away in imaginary winds of consciousness  LOL

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Tip, this isn't directed at you or your posts, I think you're level headed with your analysis. But it's implied pretty strongly in a number of posts in this thread and in the main tropical forum. One need not post "this has been a no/low impact season" to communicate that thought. I think some people have lower opinions of what this season has been because of expectations that far outpace what I think the history of the basin suggests is reasonable, especially with regard to the cumulative number of long track major hurricanes in the MDR by September 7. 

I'll be clear: if the season ended today I do not believe the empirical data would render it banal and uninspired. On this current trend, one month from now, I think it would. 

Well.. yeah, there's that too - there's no discounting the hyperbole of the internet 'water cooler ' ... no.

In my defense, I reiterate: I don't spend as much time engaged. I'm likely less privy to who is saying what and when - nor the tenor of a given threads for that matter much of the time.  Which I've managed to start my fair share of electronic fights by bowling into rooms insensitively plenty in the past lol. 

Anywho, if anyone said that ( bold ) their statement is either just that, hyperbolic, or... wrong, pick.  But the season's ACE is low relative to counts - that much cannot be disputed and is non-subjective.  Should that change because of a diet of bombs ensuing ... fine - different reality if and when.

The other thing - you know, we joke about it but it does perhaps own ... I dunno, call it 10% of the frequency; systemically NHC et al really are more sensitive in the designation due to sophistication of monitoring technologies.  More so than even 10 years ago ...which in turn was more sensitive to 10 years prior to then and on and so on.  Not only that, I've noticed a definitive tendency by NHC to hold back even invests based upon whatever the models are developing as a recent practice ..beginning ~ 5 years ago. The models are in fact improved enough to hone these areas of interest enough to "trust" them in canvased sense - but that's probably honing observation netting over those regions to where convention in designation being more sophisticated as it is, will tend to ferret cyclones more proficiently.   Just something to keep in mind when 'subjectively gauging' the present era seasons. 

It's a digression ... but, it's also interesting to consider "how many" TC were there really in 1944 ( say...)... or 1938 ... or 1876 ...

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Euro sputters utter crap. Maybe EPS is active 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

The one thing I would love to experience is a late October cane coming up from South and phasing with some anomalous arctic energy that destroys parts of western /NNE . Heck NNE could probably even do it mid October 

feels like that’s more likely than any strong 2/3 coming at us. 

I would enjoy DIT’s posts for that 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

we may have something here on 18z GFS...hour 180 looks more interesting than last few days runs

[STILL N OF PIKE]

27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The steering pattern is enormously convoluted. I still hold on my 70% odds that both Paulette and Rene stay OTS, but Paulette becomes a lot more interesting if it misses the first weakness. 

I’ll take 18z verbatim 

That looks like a nice 7-8 foot swell at about 11 seconds for Wednesday pm (10 days ) 

I just don’t  want OTS at 50w

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, some big swells would be a win. What are some of the biggest tropical swells you’ve seen up here? 

Unfortunately I wasn’t here for Bill. 

Eduard in late 90’s was sizable the day of closest approach 

There was a ocean storm that backed up S of Nova Scotia and sent some very large 10 feet @ 13 second swell to SE NH last year 

seems every year or so I see a 7 or so foot /@10-11 second period S/Se swell 

Isabel in  SFL was magical in south Palm beach , while 20 miles south or north was completely blocked by Bahamas. A weather geek could appreciate the new providence channel that allows a several hour “slot swell” to appear over a 15 mile stretch when the swell angle is within 2-3% of true ESE. That was a 15 foot swell that appeared over 2 hours and disappeared that nite . Those were 20 foot faces. Many must have thought they were hallucinating when the first sets made their way thru that channel . 

Photo is not me. 

 

[MJO812]

[Typhoon Tip]

There’s a sneaky nasty Hydro scenario setting up possibly for the interior coastal plain from the Carolinas up to Virginia day 4 possibly 5 ...

- also keep in mind that the models evolving an inverted trough overtopped with PWAT toward the US Eastern seaboard void of a TC - not sure what the reticence is on the part of the models to close off a circulation in there; there’s ample upper oceanic heat content and it appears that there’s anticyclonic potential over top too. If that region does clothes off it may evolve deeper than these models are disappearing, which would change the entire landscape (obviously) of what impacts the eastern seaboard in fairly short order - in other words models may not have a strong enough system based on what they’re seeing now in the initializations. 
 

- also beta drift is being correcting incrementally as Paulette’s left 

... Previous systems affecting eastern seaboard this year however weak notwithstanding also needed this leftward correction passing into the middle range ...bear that in mind. It doesn’t mean these will per se but there is a seasonal precedence to over anticipate north turns in models possibly attributed beta drift and also possibly attributed to the models trying to over dig troughs into the Atlantic basin  

[CoastalWx]

For the record, my post was up to this point. ACE has not been mind blowing and we continue to deal with shear and SAL in the MDR. This has not been like 04 or 05. Now it certainly could become very active quickly, but ACE starts to rapidly increase as pointed out earlier, so it really would have to go bananas to really impress me using this metric. 

[ineedsnow]

10 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

For the record, my post was up to this point. ACE has not been mind blowing and we continue to deal with shear and SAL in the MDR. This has not been like 04 or 05. Now it certainly could become very active quickly, but ACE starts to rapidly increase as pointed out earlier, so it really would have to go bananas to really impress me using this metric. 

I saw on the weather channel  this morning  ace is exactly what it's  supposed  to be for the date today

[tamarack]

20 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I saw on the weather channel  this morning  ace is exactly what it's  supposed  to be for the date today

Not surprising thanks to Laura.  Same ACE, twice the TCs.

[Typhoon Tip]

55 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, but the issue is we have a ton of storms. If this were a year where the general ratio of named storms to major hurricanes held ACE would be substantially higher. There’s no way around the fact that a lot of the named storms have been weak. 

Bingo!

no one argued for lower ACE anomaly in the context of climate comparison -

..The relative facet was/is an easy concept to have evaded along the way, and these threads being sometimes many multiples of 10's in pages in length doesn't really draw one's eagerness to plumb back with editorial focus huh.   Understandable ... 

Also, I might add that there is a seasonal prediction interpretation --> expectation involved.  When these 'officiate' offices and agencies put up big time top 20 yearly numbers or more, amidst a culture and awareness pathos already in place that is both based upon recent tragedies in the last 10 years, but also the popularization of dystopian natural cinema that we are entertaining ourselves with ( heh!)  ...all this sort of hyper anticipates the hurricane season and people are scratching heads now that we are deepening into September during a sputtering year that isn't behaving that way - 

ACE is a way to substantiate using empirical values ... It's one thing for farmer-john/jane Meteorologists to come onboard and impugn a season based upon his/her 'impression' of the way things are going.. It obviously takes on a bit more substantive value if we have some form of testing discipline that is at least vetted and proven 'sounding' - like Accumulated Cyclone Energy as an index/measure. blah blah... 

In my own honesty ...I was farmer-john ing it a few weeks ago when I first opined that it "seemed" up to that point in time, like this season was not presenting a very aggressive "development curve" - which at the time meant, ...specifically, individual cyclone prospects were all doing fake out convective sustaining... then 6 or 12 hours later, poof! gone, with naked swirls... all the way across the Basin.  I have been citing and theorizing various plausible explanations for that.... for like 6 weeks off and on... but, it was also all based upon my impression.  Then, I read a post two weeks ago that contained the abbreviation 'ACE' and went ...well, yeah - now it's showing up as a low anomaly RELATIVE to the case loading. Which ...going back to the impression method... we have not had a high count of upper echelon stemwinders out there this year either.  

That's the point... folks scrape at it though, perhaps unconsciously so ..kind of like they really want and need that addictive stimulus fix of drama and will turn to stricter evals of phrases to pull crack nuggets that might cover some of the gap between their desire and a banal reality they face.  Lol - over stating some but it's fun poke fun - kidding. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I still would watch the interior coastal plain of the Carolinas up through VA later in the week or weekend, as Invest 94L "sputters" west as an inverted trough... Remaining weak could still wrought havoc as a general transporter of absolute pig PWAT air... Talking top tier supreme loading .. and even ( at minimum ) weakly curved cyclonic mechanics encroaching upon the continental BL resistance down in that vicinity, would probably trigger subtle/quasi CF mechanical feedbacks - namely, an interface to lift that air mass. Yikes.  The thing is, that feature may not actually continue to propagate onto the land... but rather might come to a slow down/stall immediately astride the coast down there ( to some varying distance).  That could potentially set up excessive rainfall over protracted hours..  More synoptically,.. the anticyclone moving west to east off NE to the N..  intensifies the longshore fetch containing said PWAT anomaly.  

I haven't checked WPC risk assessment ... would figure, if this is a risk at all they'd be on it - ha, maybe I should.  (edit, looks like the don't issue exc rf beyond D3)

Also, I mentioned last night that 'beta drift' could be effectively cutting these cyclone entities through the Atlantic prematurely across the pantheon of guidance types. Not unheard of ..this used to always be a mandatory anticipation when looking at any given168 hour, that some ( just spit-ballin' ) 66% of the times, one can correct that position some unknown variant west/left. 

http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Beta_drift

I don't know if the state of the art of recent modeling somehow attones for this effect, but I suspect they don't because as I mentioned late last evening ... we've already seen three system affect the archipelago of PR and up along the EC this season ...albeit weak, and if memory recalls right all of these were hooked seaward when they too were in their extendeds ... I am seeing some models already hinting at nudging these D6 and 7 positions left... ...  Namely, the 00z EPS mean is precariously close to a 'key slot' climo track NE of PR toward the SE U.S. out there D8 ish.   The operational is a NE outlier comparing.   ...of course, then you have the 06z GFS that seems to want to take everything out there and start corkscrewing track guidance into big closed loops almost immediately - useless no matter what ...