Typhoon Tip Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Interesting... The Euro model versus the seasonal constant 'sputtering' trend like cars with blown -head gaskets limping into rest stops.. This is the most active yet abortion season ever... No one likely keeps track of that particular statistic: number of TDs and TS' relative to the mayhem people want to see them evolve into. Or is there? That would be neat number... .Like hypothetically, 1949 there were 34 TDs and 1 hurricane. In the year 2029, there were 20 hurricane and 20 TDS which became the former being the impetus. Those number can be easily inferred, sure,... but then rank piece of shit seasons in terms of number piece of shit - and this one is getting high on that shit list by the way... This season just can't get the upper ends and developmental 'tendency' underway. There's something going on with the ambient tropical sounding out there in the MDR ... something that is occurring beneath the observations of the standard monitoring, too... SAL? mm... perhaps some, but not really the whole gum in the engine.. If we look here, http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time= ... one may be inclined to suggest that is so, but only because these hot colors are built into the 'omg' circuitry of human experience... Fact of the matter is, we have seen plenty of fiery orange bands fisting across the Basin from off Africa in seasons of lore where category hurricane cut their way right across the Basin. I don't like the comparison because it does not seem to be so singularly instrumentally mitigating alone... Plus, the present MDR itself ..it's hard to know if SAL was 'once there' but has been fragmented by cloud production mixing it out, or if it those fragments were being pulled into zygote circulation coverage of the individual entities - which is which... And additionally to that, these entities are still sputtering outside that region...clear toward the Americas ...where the SAL is attenuated substantially.. So, I'm just not convinced SAL is the reason. Scott mentioned a month ago there were pockets of 850 mb dry air out there - I don't know if he meant that in the context of 'missing from initialization' ... Could be, because I don't believe MDR and adjacent regions really have a very dense physically realized observation net feeding the grids ... satellite conceit or not. I don't know... if there's a network of dingies out there with grad-students proving their medal by bravely launching balloons, so be it... Be that as it may, every system is belated and/or being retarded for systemic integrity at all times though... That sort of make the 850 plume theory less than likely to me - though it could certainly still be a factor. Or, maybe it is a cocktail of things like this... I don't believe it is SST or oceanic heat content/integral limiting though... We're on the ass end of 20 years of persistent positive anomalies pretty much everywhere... I almost wonder if the theta-e gradient in the vertical sounding between 700 mb and 200 mb of the tropospheric heights are wacky ... Tropical thermodynamics requires a conditional instability based upon dry air above ... It would be counter-intuitive as people are probably hugely used to hearing 'dry air inhibition' of some form or another in every context there is known to atmospheric dynamics. ... but, the way the tropical cyclone model works is that you have a hot rich TD flowing into the bottom ...rising and mixing in dry air above 700 mb...which cools the column internally and creates its own instability/ pseudo-lapse rate. What if there is too much theta-e above the 700 mb level? not likely... In the end it's probably just shear.. maybe. I have noticed the easterly component at mid and upper turret depths has "seemed" to tilt/stress system toward the west over a lot of these little guys/girls. In a general sense/scope, the horizontal mass transport at upper levels has to exceed the vertical depth in a pure geometric scaling for TC to develop.. If upper machinery cannot evacuate the incoming air.. .that's the ball -game 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 2 hours ago, correnjim1 said: agree i'm not looking for a 38....i bob type storm would be fun There are only one or two people here looking for a 1938 redux because they somehow cannot comprehend the implications of such an event. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: There are only one or two people here looking for a 1938 redux because they somehow cannot comprehend the implications of such an event. pretty sure i know who one of them is lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 No, There are two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: There are only one or two people here looking for a 1938 redux because they somehow cannot comprehend the implications of such an event. We 38 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 1635 is my go-to, but a 38 would be acceptable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 20 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: We 38 38 ain't coming through that door anytime soon. I could see a Bob redux happening in the next few years though, and maybe even a Eduardo/Noel this fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 16 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: 1635 is my go-to, but a 38 would be acceptable. Just curious. Why not 1815? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 30 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: 38 ain't coming through that door anytime soon. I could see a Bob redux happening in the next few years though, and maybe even a Eduardo/Noel this fall Easily could be this month or next . Easily 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 19 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Just curious. Why not 1815? That's a good one, wasn't quite the other two. I wouldn't say no 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 We recurve ots season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 zzzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Ain’t gonna recurve anything with that Pig HP to our NE. Due North or NNW 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ain’t gonna recurve anything with that Pig HP to our NE. Due North or NNW Lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Lol. Iglesias at one time showed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 I dunno....I'm kind of ready for a direct hit. I immensely enjoyed Carol Edna, and Hazel in 1954. Hazel had very little rain but winds gusting 100+ even with that inland track (this is in NNJ. Seeing the tops of railroad wire polls blowing like tumbleweed down the street as a young lad going on 8 was superb! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol. Iglesias at one time showed that. Julio? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 5, 2020 Share Posted September 5, 2020 Still seems hard to believe the Euro is going to be successful in defeating the seasonal trend of sputtering... time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2020 Share Posted September 5, 2020 4 hours ago, weathafella said: I dunno....I'm kind of ready for a direct hit. I immensely enjoyed Carol Edna, and Hazel in 1954. Hazel had very little rain but winds gusting 100+ even with that inland track (this is in NNJ. Seeing the tops of railroad wire polls blowing like tumbleweed down the street as a young lad going on 8 was superb! Before you owned a home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 5, 2020 Share Posted September 5, 2020 6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: We recurve ots season Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 5, 2020 Share Posted September 5, 2020 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Before you owned a home lol....my parents did-dad was thrilled-for real. He was a weenie at heart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2020 Share Posted September 5, 2020 7 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2020 Share Posted September 5, 2020 Already more coming west. Game fooking om folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 5, 2020 Share Posted September 5, 2020 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Already more coming west. Game fooking om folks! yep inching west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2020 Share Posted September 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: yep inching west We’ll see that continue with the WAR expanding west each run and the PiG to the north. No escape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 5, 2020 Share Posted September 5, 2020 16 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ain’t gonna recurve anything with that Pig HP to our NE. Due North or NNW They are recurving potentially around 50-55. Worst case . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 5, 2020 Share Posted September 5, 2020 14 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: They are recurving potentially around 50-55. Worst case . This active period has been 10 days out for a week now. Seems like it’s finally not getting pushed back further but we need better timing with that mid Atlantic Ocean weakness to not let the (modeled Day 4-7 canes ) escape . Right now some models look sort of ridiculous with the escape at 50w , the trapping at 55w and zig zagging then well east out to sea. I could see ridge or ridge weakness trend to a clean escape into westerlies at 50-55W or be in and a bit closer to Bermuda Next couple day trends are key ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 5, 2020 Share Posted September 5, 2020 Gfs is way different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 5, 2020 Share Posted September 5, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is way different Ya mildly interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 5, 2020 Share Posted September 5, 2020 6 hours ago, ineedsnow said: Ya mildly interesting 18z is awful, weakness opens up at 55w and sucks the storms right up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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