SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

[WxFreak11]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

If only the 6z GFS went out another 24 hours!  

With that ridge looks like New England hit, however it is in the GFS fantasy land timeline.

[Cyclone-68]

I wouldn’t mind a good storm but it seems like the  CT electrical grid will be pushed back to pre 20th century levels if that happens?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

57 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I wouldn’t mind a good storm but it seems like the  CT electrical grid will be pushed back to pre 20th century levels if that happens?

Yea. We’d rather not make fires to stay warm or light candles at night. 

[correnjim1]

how does the rain look for tomorrow?

[Typhoon Tip]

You two are funny    

Yet, you're wantonly egging-on these natural phenomenon ?    You can't have the LI express then -  ... shoot

It's not an admonishment. We all do it, who are into the "wonder" of natural events as hobby and covet particular/personal reasons for that fascination.  

Age old philosophical dilemma ... we want to see it; we don't want it to happen.  

Just had a present leap of thought:  maybe it is some instinctual thing, the 'awe' and 'wonder' are really like part of the human advantage over all other critters of this world's so far that have failed evolution's test. We perceive cause-and-effect with godly superiority over pretty much any species that even remotely comes close to our sentience - all observations included in that.  How do we know - because we put meat-wagons deliberately into orbit, and bring ( usually...) those wagons and the meat they contain, safely home to talk about it.  If you turn that coin over ... we have a particular draw to witnessing nature's cause-and-effect, perhaps because in some wired sense of it ...we are uniquely situated to appreciate how A forces create Zinc results.  Our ingenuity does the rest... Never thought of this before but is makes sense...  the awe of nature is built into us.  And, it's also got a pragmatic advantage that if and when we observe and appreciated the awe affect, we expand our understanding of the effects of nature (preparatory).  There's something to this... that maybe the 'appraisal' circuitry is really what separates us uniquely from othe animals... Not so much 'tools,' 'fire', and 'language' or 'religion'.  

And, all species have failed evolution by the way; it's been a matter of when and how - ...different discussion. 

[Cyclone-68]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You two are funny    

Yet, you're wantonly egging-on these natural phenomenon ?    You can't have the LI express then -  ... shoot

It's not an admonishment. We all do it, who are into the "wonder" of natural events as hobby and covet particular/personal reasons for that fascination.  

Age old philosophical dilemma ... we want to see it; we don't want it to happen.  

Just had a present leap of thought:  maybe it is some instinctual thing, the 'awe' and 'wonder' are really like part of the human advantage over all other critters of this world's so far that have failed evolution's test. We perceive cause-and-effect with godly superiority over pretty much any species that even remotely comes close to our sentience - all observations included in that.  How do we know - because we put meat-wagons deliberately into orbit, and bring ( usually...) those wagons and the meat they contain, safely home to talk about it.  If you turn that coin over ... we have a particular draw to witnessing nature's cause-and-effect, perhaps because in some wired sense of it ...we are uniquely situated to appreciate how A forces create Zinc results.  Our ingenuity does the rest... Never thought of this before but is makes sense...  the awe of nature is built into us.  And, it's also got a pragmatic advantage that if and when we observe and appreciated the awe affect, we expand our understanding of the effects of nature (preparatory).  There's something to this... that maybe the 'appraisal' circuitry is really what separates us uniquely from othe animals... Not so much 'tools,' 'fire', and 'language' or 'religion'.  

And, all species have failed evolution by the way; it's been a matter of when and how - ...different discussion. 

I can only speak for myself but you’re 100% correct. I am a bit of a hypocrite about this 

[Cold Miser]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

There was a 17' storm surge recorded to the east. Lake Charles is very lucky. The wording was appropriate. 

So not a soul would have survived if the path was different?  

Got it. 

[Typhoon Tip]

46 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I can only speak for myself but you’re 100% correct. I am a bit of a hypocrite about this 

You are polite my friend

But we all are the bold -   ...

After the fact, I was just sort of offering a plausible explanation there, at least opening some avenue to understanding why that appearance of hypocrisy exist - I mean, if appreciating nature's destructive potential is indeed built into us, than the 750,000 years of our evolution that brought that innate ability to bear ...might have a wisdom in itself - it is needed to prepare.  So in a way, maybe that transcends what might actually be a shallower judgement of having a double-standard.  It seems to make intuitive sense all the sudden - if you don't appreciate ( really 'respect' ) something, it will kill you - 

That's almost natural law.   

There is a difference though between respecting, appraising significance, versus the 'awe' ... I think it could be a point of criticism ( perhaps ) if that 'awe' becomes cinema. It does seem to be 'entertaining' for many to watch a dam fail... even if there is a neighborhood visibly in harm's way from the elevated vantage 2,000 feet hovering helicopter with film crew, capturing houses unseating from their foundations and crumbling into liquified brambled torrent of debris and blood.  So,.. hm, I may also be overly contrite to those that gawk at the specter with seemingly blithe simultaneous awareness as to the misery that whatever they are watching is likely to afflict.   interesting -

You know, I remember actually having an 'enough is enough' sort of disenchanted loss of any entertainment value last Autumn when that 180 mph tempest sat immediately astride Grand Bahamas for some 70 hours like a cosmic scaled lawnmower - only the blades of grass were the archipelago down there.  One particular chilling photo I recall emerging on the web in the days aftermatch ... were personal clothing hanging and pointing down wind, frozen in time trying like vestiges of a crime. Festooned amid the trees also denuded of any green - they were like ornamentally replaced said foliage with human clothing. 

That clothing either came from a body, or... the body's house - most likely... 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We’re nowhere close to prepared for a bona fide hurricane strike. In Louisiana there were convoys of generators, power crews, and first responders pouring into Lake Charles just a few hours after the storm passed. Why? Despite damage all along the highway, trees were further set back and they had crews out there to keep I-10 open. Both directions.

I’m even more convinced today that a legit category two/three hurricane up the Connecticut River would dwarf all other storms in the last 50 years in Connecticut. I’m not Josh, but I’ve chased a fair amount in the south. Our infrastructure and setup (lack of county coordination) in Connecticut is a multi-billion dollar disaster waiting to happen. 

Oh of course... 

Sandy ...some 200 miles landfalling farther down the coast, still managed to fill subways of lower Manhattan to the point where near- drowning rats were squeezing out of the sewer grates and running up the access stairwells...  And that was just spillover, indirect wave-action storm surge.   That's the same as Katrina - few really discuss that Katrina didn't actually hit New Orleans...  

Battery walls?  Joke - yeah..it's a good start.  But a Cat 3 accelerator 'hooking' from SSE into the NY Bite waters would probably shut the city down and not as a euphemism either.  

Obviously FEMA and maybe NASA and whomever else org with wherewithal ..runs very sophisticated environmental impact models that are based upon geo-physical equations of momentum and thermodynamics, Earth, Sky and Sea.    - man ...you talk about cinema!  getting into the 'cutting room floor' and editing input parameters would be nothing shy of dystopian porn -

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Forecast for Laura was nearly flawless in terms of track from a pretty extended lead (over 80 hours), while the intensity forecast left something to be desired. However, the error was pretty acceptable given the 30 hour lead time from issuance to landfall.

Final Grade: B

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/08/devastating-hurricane-laura-verification.html

[Gwhizkids]

So not a soul would have survived if the path was different?  

 

Got it. 

A nuclear weapon is unsurvivable and yet there were a few people who survived Hiroshima and Nagasaki improbably. A pyroclastic flow is unsurvivable and yet one person survived one in Martinique in 1902.

 

The exceptions don’t disprove the rule.

 

 

.

[Damage In Tolland]

It was a high end cat 4 borderline 5 which was ruled out though and not a cat 1. C+

[Bostonseminole]

I had it just east of holly beach, models did pretty well on track mostly.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It was a high end cat 4 borderline 5 which was ruled out though and not a cat 1. C+

I ruled out a cat 5...which it didn't achieve.

I didn't forecast a cat 1...I forecasted a 3.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I ruled out a cat 5...which it didn't achieve.

I didn't forecast a cat 1...I forecasted a 3.

What about we at E Mass wx though?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

What about we at E Mass wx though?

How was the run this morning?

[CoastalWx]

The euro has been disappointing for tropicals. Has had a west bias. 

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, Gwhizkids said:

A nuclear weapon is unsurvivable and yet there were a few people who survived Hiroshima and Nagasaki improbably. A pyroclastic flow is unsurvivable and yet one person survived one in Martinique in 1902.

 

The exceptions don’t disprove the rule.

 

 

.

right.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The euro has been disappointing for tropicals. Has had a west bias. 

It’s disappointing in general. She blows 

[MJO812]

1938

[Cyclone-68]

Yankee Candle in CT would do a booming business with that map 

[Ginx snewx]

9 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

There was a 17' storm surge recorded to the east. Lake Charles is very lucky. The wording was appropriate. 

Yea I dont think Garth appreciates what 17 feet of surge can do to a populated low lying area. 

[Ginx snewx]

6 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

So not a soul would have survived if the path was different?  

Got it. 

If you were in a sea level home and 17 feet of water rose with waves on top what do you think your odds were.

[Torch Tiger]

Let's go!

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It has been terrible IMO. What’s more concerning are the ensembles are not handling TC genesis well at all. GEFS is having issues too but to a lesser extent. Just like Dorian, there wasn’t a single EPS member that predicted genesis in the hours before there was a TC. Then they tried to kill it in the Caribbean despite obvious favorable conditions. Then it remained weak in the Gulf when hurricane models were sounding the alarm.

The op recovered at the end with landfall location and intensity, but not before scaring the hell out of a good part of Houston and Galveston. I’m glad I held firm with my spot. I was prepared to go just east of Houston.

Where are your pictures and report?

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Almost done pulling all of it together. Will post in the next hour or so. 

Awesome look forward to it. Didn’t even know you went.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We’re nowhere close to prepared for a bona fide hurricane strike. In Louisiana there were convoys of generators, power crews, and first responders pouring into Lake Charles just a few hours after the storm passed. Why? Despite damage all along the highway, trees were further set back and they had crews out there to keep I-10 open. Both directions.

I’m even more convinced today that a legit category two/three hurricane up the Connecticut River would dwarf all other storms in the last 50 years in Connecticut. I’m not Josh, but I’ve chased a fair amount in the south. Our infrastructure and setup (lack of county coordination) in Connecticut is a multi-billion dollar disaster waiting to happen. 

The Connecticut River Valley infrastructure is exponentially larger than it was in 1938.  A Storm of that magnitude coming up the CRV in 2020 would probably be the most damaging hurricane in US history.  
Some would be months without power. 
The 1938 storm took down over a billion board feet of lumber in New England and New York State.  
Check out the book “New England hurricane” it was put out by the Federal Writers Project in 1939.  You can still find relatively cheap copies. Fantastic pictures.

[Chrisrotary12]

15 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Let's go!

For what? A little PRE?

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

For what? A little PRE?

for a little '54 luv of course

[Torch Tiger]

Hopefully 2-3 EC landfalls between now and Halloween.