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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020


Bostonseminole
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ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132020
100 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS LAURA HAS BECOME AN 
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...
...LITTLE TIME REMAINS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 92.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES
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Check out this wording, hope people heed it:

 

Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause
catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal
City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This storm
surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate
coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.
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8 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

THIRTY miles inland?? Wow

Yeah...the land rise there is shallow... that region can be 20 feet above sea level quite far inland, particularly lining estuaries and river inlets...   Those features will also focus surge ( 'funnel effect') and that will raise water levels quite far up water ways.   

They have the same problem down around eastern VA and up along the Del Marva and probably up into Ches. Bay ... those regions have tidal flats that stink of craw fish turds at low tides in neighborhoods some 7 miles from any beach.   

For some reason, big surge storms tend to hit Florida or LI with more frequency ... anyway, places like Port Arthur TX ...ho man

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It's funny ...I was just coming in here to comment an opinion that I thought this was a chance to be a particularly dangerous event - but because like Andrew...it may actually be intensifying as it is coming in... Camille did that too back in 60-whatever...  Those storms that quasi RI right at that wrong time for the coast - eesh.  Not to diminish the threat or significance for those in harm's way, but ... it's probably a good thing this misses Houston/Galveston Bay and ends up further up the coast toward Port Arthur where ( uh...I think..) there's less population and infrastructure. 

Andrew ( 1992) exploded within 75 miles as it was passing over the straights between the Bahama archipelago and Florida ... drilling out some 45 mb of central pressure depth over night. I think it went from Cat 1 to Cat 4 ...but then was reanalyzed in future papers it was ultimately upgraded to a Cat 5 as it was coming in and scouring neighborhoods in across southern Dade county/ Miami burroughs. 

You know ..I later read a paper by Theodore Fujita ( think it was him...) that there was evidence of twister clusters embedded into the eyewall... with repeating subsidiary suction spots evidenced by debris layout... I mean, can you imagine that?  Like ...your already sitting in 120 sustained wind with repeating tornados coming It's like, where's the sharks! ...although you probably don't know it.. I mean at those kind of kinetics, what's the difference - haha sharks or not

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12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's funny ...I was just coming in here to comment an opinion that I thought this was a chance to be a particularly dangerous event - but because like Andrew...it may actually be intensifying as it is coming in... Camille did that too back in 60-whatever...  Those storms that quasi RI right at that wrong time for the coast - eesh.  Not to diminish the threat or significance for those in harm's way, but ... it's probably a good thing this misses Houston/Galveston Bay and ends up further up the coast toward Port Arthur where ( uh...I think..) there's less population and infrastructure. 

Andrew ( 1992) exploded within 75 miles as it was passing over the straights between the Bahama archipelago and Florida ... drilling out some 45 mb of central pressure depth over night. I think it went from Cat 1 to Cat 4 ...but then was reanalyzed in future papers it was ultimately upgraded to a Cat 5 as it was coming in and scouring neighborhoods in across southern Dade county/ Miami burroughs. 

You know ..I later read a paper by Theodore Fujita ( think it was him...) that there was evidence of twister clusters embedded into the eyewall... with repeating subsidiary suction spots evidenced by debris layout... I mean, can you imagine that?  Like ...your already sitting in 120 sustained wind with a tornado coming ...although you probably don't know it.. I mean at those kind of kinetics, what's the difference -

i was there for Andrew.. was amazing.. like I posted earlier.. I remember very vividly going to bed as a CAT1 and waking up to panic all over dade/broward counties.. I lived about 5 miles from country walk and the trailer park that many deaths.  I wish I could find some pics will look later, we have a video somewhere.

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The outflow from this thing has truly taken on awesome geometry - particularly as it fans mare's fractals over the entire expanse of the eastern Gulf -...wow...that's probably helping to intensify this because that kind of superb radial structure means huge mass necessarily needs to be conserved and that mass is coming into the bottom of Laura's chimney ...that's how that works... which is all synonymous with lower sfc pressure. 

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Can I refer to Laura as she here ...

lol that is what’s wrong w the world..people looking to be offended as it’s a sport now 

Lets see what latest pressure fall is

If we're going to anthropomorphize storms by giving them human names, use any gender pronoun you wish as far as I'm concerned.

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i was there for Andrew.. was amazing.. like I posted earlier.. I remember very vividly going to bed as a CAT1 and waking up to panic all over dade/broward counties.. I lived about 5 miles from country walk and the trailer park that many deaths.  I wish I could find some pics will look later, we have a video somewhere.
I was a freshman at U. Of Miami when Andrew hit. I believe the highest wind recorded at the old NHC building across the street from campus was 142 before their equipment got blown off the roof. Spent the storm on the second floor of one of the towers. The roar of the wind was ridiculous and it was pushing water into the hallways through the storm doors.

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