40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/08/hurricane-laura-targets-tx-la-final-call.html Orange, LA 1am Thursday 110-125mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warwick WX Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Google is not giving me an Orange, LA just an Orange, TX on the state line. I presume this means the land south of Orange, TX on the LA side just east of Port Arthur? I'm seeing a Johnson Bayou and Mae's Beach in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Based on I.K.E. Laura will be comparable to Hurricane Ike with surge values. Impressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Warwick WX said: Google is not giving me an Orange, LA just an Orange, TX on the state line. I presume this means the land south of Orange, TX on the LA side just east of Port Arthur? I'm seeing a Johnson Bayou and Mae's Beach in this area. East Orange is in Louisiana 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Nam splits Galveston and Port Arthur sub 930. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Based on I.K.E. Laura will be comparable to Hurricane Ike with surge values. Impressive Is the modeled fetch that impressive !? where is that modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 25 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Is the modeled fetch that impressive !? where is that modeled Based on NHC wind, radii in all 4 quarters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 57 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nam splits Galveston and Port Arthur sub 930. 18 Z Euro is east and a worst case scenario for Lake Charles 120 sustained Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Yea. Not good Steve. Lets see how tomorrow plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 26, 2020 Author Share Posted August 26, 2020 This might be the case where we wake up and it’s at 940mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: This might be the case where we wake up and it’s at 940mb I’ll take that wager My guess is 960’s in am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 26, 2020 Author Share Posted August 26, 2020 11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’ll take that wager My guess is 960’s in am. I remember going to sleep and Andrew was barely a cat 1, woke up to a solid cat 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Once she kicks out the dry air she ingested rapid intensification will start.. pretty close now.. 945mb by morning I'm guessing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 49 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 18 Z Euro is east and a worst case scenario for Lake Charles 120 sustained I think this run has it nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Port Arthur TX doesn’t need that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 It will be a long two weeks tracking our '38 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Laura down 8mb in the last hour :o. Wouldnt be shocked if this makes a run at a cat 5 later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 4 hours ago, Dr. Dews said: It will be a long two weeks tracking our '38 Jesus, look at that beast in Iowa! Can I sign up for something like that emerging off the Mid-Atlantic coast in January? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 6z Euro further East. Now a cat 3. NHC Expecting 4 right before LF. Buoy near Laura. Wind is at standard height Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 6z Euro further East. Now a cat 3. NHC Expecting 4 right before LF. Buoy near Laura. Wind is at standard height Euro initialized to weak and is about 6 hours behind with intensity.. rapid intensification going on right now I definitely think a cat 5 landfall is a possibility.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Euro with the Hou LF fakeout inside d2 was pretty bad. NHC doing a great job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 I have not been altogether impressed by the Euro's handling of tropical systems of the years. That's from the genesis phases of them, to the handling of them after the fact ...until they begin to experience the influence of the westerlies ...then the model's a kind of "johnny-come-lately" and does remarkably well. I think the tropical regions/monsoon trough zones are like a "limit" in the equations - and I wonder what the mathematics over the 4-d variable system is doing at that x-coordinate boundary ...where it's like a geo-physical asymptote .. fading to oblivion more so than a discrete edge. I guess a metaphor is like 'slipping outside the Euro's radar-range.' Anyway, I wonder if their system falters there a little...because its in that amorphous ill-defined boundary that zygote TW/TCs tend to formulate and begin moving W where the 10 N and 10 S ( depending on hemisphere) gets influenced by the underbelly of the HC and the easterly trade winds zones... The Euro is routinely lagged behind other guidance in genesis in these regions, and then... seems to be challenged in intensify systems ..playing catch-up with the other guidance. I'm usual raising a brow at this point if I see the model even carry an inverted 'dent' west around 15N across the Atlantic ...usually at the other end of the scale, it is not uncommon to find the GGEM is negotiating a categorical hurricane if/when the Euro does... Anyway, since Laura is technically still moving with westerly component ... which means it is not yet influenced by the westerlies... I wonder if the Euro's hiccup runs deviating from the consensus is part and parcel of all this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Oh Cranky cmon lol winds 125 pressure 956 dude is lost 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 And it’s continuing to strengthen but for some reason he thinks it has hit its peak. It’s almost as if he just likes to go against the majority. Dude sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 More convection popping around the center cat 4 by 11 and cat 5 by 5pm in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Still strengthening, Recon found 959mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Cranky meh Cat 2. Lol now 5 mph below cat 4, recon just measured 140 at flight level, 951 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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