Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Yea this would leave a mark. Laura has that potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 160mph gusts at Galveston island....yikes. Boivar peninsula 116mph....they were just leveled by Harvey 3 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTbTHlTmDX8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 160mph gusts at Galveston island....yikes. Boivar peninsula 116mph....they were just leveled by Harvey 3 years ago. Appears to me that unfortunately Laura will be taking full advantage of the cleared out Gulf thanks to Marcos dissipation. Shear has relaxed and with assist from Marco a ridge is rebuilding forcing a further west track. Laura could be at max intensity as it approaches the coast as well. Dangerous setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Nana will hit the Northeast with a wooden spoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Laura took a beating last nite...that may impact her potential on the high end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Appears to me that unfortunately Laura will be taking full advantage of the cleared out Gulf thanks to Marcos dissipation. Shear has relaxed and with assist from Marco a ridge is rebuilding forcing a further west track. Laura could be at max intensity as it approaches the coast as well. Dangerous setup I was pretty conservative on first call because I'm not in the habit or forecasting 160mph gusts and 3 feet of snow at 4 days lead time, but if you read the blog, I implied exactly what you are referring to. You are spot on in that the timing of Laura's evolution is going to leave little time for modulation via internal processes (ERC), which may be the coast's only hope under these circumstances. Texas would likely have been better off had Laura blown up near the leewards and 1) Began ERC 2) Been a mature, coupled system upon traversing of Hispaniola and Cuba, which would have rendered it more prone to disruption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Laura took a beating last nite...that may impact her potential on the high end It still has a lot of housekeeping before its off to the races...cat 4 is def. not a forgone conclusion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It still has a lot of housekeeping before its off to the races...cat 4 is def. not a forgone conclusion. Exactly. That is better articulated . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nana will hit the Northeast with a wooden spoon After throwing punches of garlic, oregano, and basil. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It still has a lot of housekeeping before its off to the races...cat 4 is def. not a forgone conclusion. My initial response was to post about filling up cars and home heating oil tanks given refineries but they actually dropped after Harvey if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Exactly. That is better articulated . You are exactly right, though....that is the reason you don't go James and forecast a cat 4 or 5 at extended leads...sooooo much has to go "right" ...in a season where not much has, nonetheless... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 24, 2020 Author Share Posted August 24, 2020 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You are exactly right, though....that is the reason you don't go James and forecast a cat 4 or 5 at extended leads...sooooo much has to go "right" ...in a season where not much has, nonetheless... You can see what can go wrong as with Marco.. you really need perfect conditions for a CAT4/5, I think cat 3 is very likely. folks think Gulf and instant cat5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 24, 2020 Author Share Posted August 24, 2020 this is looking and more like a central TX landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: this is looking and more like a central TX landfall I can't stand Texas landfalls....most are pretty boring. Especially if hit trends down to the big bend area where Hannah went. Its one giant swamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 12 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: You can see what can go wrong as with Marco.. you really need perfect conditions for a CAT4/5, I think cat 3 is very likely. folks think Gulf and instant cat5 Marco was never expected to go "right"....it always looked to kiss hurricane strength and no more. On Friday, I expected a similar fate for Laura, maybe a bit better, but over the weekend it appeared likely that shear would abate. We need to see if that goes according to plan. Knowing this year, it wouldn't surprise me if it didn't, or it did and we still peaked at 105mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Saw this on Facebook got a chuckle out of it 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Saw this on Facebook got a chuckle out of it Oddly enough that price seems about right too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 24, 2020 Author Share Posted August 24, 2020 47 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m still not sold on that far west. The euro has been poor with handling this, and I’m being generous. There’s just a lot of bouncing around and spread. Not good for a high impact event this close to landfall. ICON looks like TX/LA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 23 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: ICON looks like TX/LA border Well, that settles it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 I feel like as time goes by, it's more and more TX. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 I just want to see the headline “Nana Spanks Northeast” once before I’m gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like as time goes by, it's more and more TX. Looks like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 24, 2020 Author Share Posted August 24, 2020 GFS western LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 24, 2020 Author Share Posted August 24, 2020 GFS close up looks like Holly beach would be a good spot.. if it made landfall according to this run, it's on the west side so maybe not great for surge.. not much east but swamps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: GFS close up looks like Holly beach would be a good spot.. if it made landfall according to this run, it's on the west side so maybe not great for surge.. not much east but swamps Yea, SW LA is another boring landfall spot...as is the border area where Rita hit. The western Gulf coast has lots of population holes, unlike the eastern side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 24, 2020 Author Share Posted August 24, 2020 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, SW LA is another boring landfall spot...as is the border area where Rita hit. The western Gulf coast has lots of population holes, unlike the eastern side. CMC pretty similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: CMC pretty similar Oh, I don't doubt it...that was my first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 SE TX is fairly well populated, right through Lake Charles LA. I-10. The notion it is one big empty swamp is pretty lol, mostly people who have never been or lived there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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