40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 I'm especially skeptical it maintains that much intensity that far north, and somewhat skeptical it makes it that far west. We''ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 11PM update has it East of that....right up Bourbon Street....yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 0z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 Even in the GOM the environment isn't the greatest, but that is its best chance for siggy intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 6z Euro 60 and 90 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 Wow on the 12Z GFS. A possibility of 2 hurricanes hitting the same area one after another? Interesting weather for Louisiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 12z Euro is coming in strong in the gulf with storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 12z Euro is coming in strong in the gulf with storm 2 Marco ain't no slouch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Marco ain't no slouch Same position Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Same position Yikes Laura is weaker than Marco, interesting same Lf Think New Orleans would sink? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 17 hours ago, MJO812 said: Same position Yikes One hopes Laura stirs up some less-hot water for Marco to cruise over. 12z GFS has the remains (of both?) dumping our first siggy RA here since mid July. Late edit: Got the 'canes reversed - not often when the "L" storm is chasing the "M" one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 Would be interesting to see NO get hit by 2 TC in the span of a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 French Army Corp of Engineers gave up when ceding the land in the purchase and warned ... 'do not attempt to build a city there,' upon exit. Anyway ... I mused ( or bemused ..) earlier about this season's propensity to 'under'whelm ... No system has really show panache in the development phases and in fact, if anything systems seem to sputter at least environment excuse to do so... This morning Marco looked all but plunging into an RI phase of development and keeping with season trend, instead this happens... "the last fix made by this morning's reconnaissance flight indicated that the pressure had leveled off, and no higher winds had been observed from what was measured earlier in the flight. The radar presentation from Cuban radar has also degraded a bit, so Marco's initial intensity is held at 55 kt." It's dicey too - because TC's are a fickle beast to forecast and past performance doesn't dictate future responses and all that ... but when will the season trend of COVID-19 TCs get vaccinated - that's a question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 Wow 18z GFS for Louisiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 Yeah...18z GFS pummels Louisiana. 1-2 punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 Insane tracks Double trouble Then remnants trouble for our area 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 37 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Insane tracks Double trouble Then remnants trouble for our area Trouble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Trouble? Yes for New Orleans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 7 hours ago, MJO812 said: Yes for New Orleans You said our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 Would be apropos to have these named Marco and Polo 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 6z GFS tried to develop something else in a week or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 Laura Satellite presentation improvement overbite (by 5-7 am ) looked extraordinary for a system where it is over S Hispaniola) Granted it may (degrade) again today but impressive at 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: You said our area Remnants Walt Drag made a thread about it in the NYC subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 Remnants Walt Drag made a thread about it in the NYC subforum.2 things: Walt’s thinking as laid out in that thread is dependent upon the center of the remnant low passing within 70 miles of (in his case) NYC. Also, he doesn’t indicate that this will be “trouble” (other than maybe for marine interests), but rather an opportunity for much needed rainfall.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 32 minutes ago, Gwhizkids said: 2 things: Walt’s thinking as laid out in that thread is dependent upon the center of the remnant low passing within 70 miles of (in his case) NYC. Also, he doesn’t indicate that this will be “trouble” (other than maybe for marine interests), but rather an opportunity for much needed rainfall. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk In NJ .. not sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 In NJ .. not sne But no “trouble” here. (And my little slice of SNE actually is within 70 miles of NYC ) Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 First Call for Laura, which will absorb Marco IMO. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/08/laura-steals-show-first-call.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 well so much for that 1 2 punch and 2 hurricanes hitting LA. Laura is the real deal. Hype sells but Fujiwhara lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 6z Euro yikes, goes right over Houston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 10 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I always enjoy reading your stuff. I think our thoughts are similar again, though I would probably shift the high LF threat ever so slightly further west to cover Beaumont. I never really bought into the models killing Laura if it made it intact through the Antillies. You could see that the upper level pattern was going to be awfully favorable--but the guidance had a hard time putting things together I guess with two systems so close to one another. I'm always dubious of the super high end projections for landfalling systems along the northern Gulf coast, but this environment is primed for a well organized system to explode. I think we get our first major here, with real potential for something higher than a mid-range category 3 (maybe 20-25%). Thanks, man. You may very well be right about the track....just a first call. Final will be tomorrow night. One thing I have been working on over the past year or two is not being so defensive with respect to forecasting and embracing mistakes as a vehicle for refinement. It tends to make your thoughts much more readable, too. I have also been trying to tone down the syntax and length to make it more appealing to read and less cumbersome. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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