tamarack Posted August 15, 2020 Share Posted August 15, 2020 21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m not sure if it’s half of 2005, but it’ll certainly be significantly lower because 2005 had those two early major hurricanes. If that’s the standard people are looking at, fine. I just don’t think that should be the lens for defining what this season has been so far. To me that’s like saying on December 10th that while we’re double our climo (ACE is double the average at this point) the winter season hasn’t really been that good because we haven’t had a KU. Of course everything could fall apart moving forward but at this particular moment in time, it’s more than decent given the historical record. Maybe. I'd note the 2007-08 snow season, with nothing approaching a KU but loads of low-end warning criteria, perhaps analogous to Cat 1&2 events rather than TCs peaking at 45 to 60, and my snowiest winter since Fort Kent. This hurricane season is more like 2004-05, when I had a bunch of small events through early Feb but none even reaching 4". Maybe our TCs could be like that winter, which broke the meh with 21" (and thunder) on Feb 10-11 and 40" more thru March 12. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 Time for tropical nerds to wake up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 Last week Cranky said the next MDR storm will take a southern route at end of August and then we will see several storms with development more widespread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Time for tropical nerds to wake up Somewhere in the afterlife, Dr. Gray is dusting off that bell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 Should start to perk up in about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 Things firing up next couple days. Threat this week into he gulf. Next 3 weeks East Coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Things firing up next couple days. Threat this week into he gulf. Next 3 weeks East Coast 12z Euro is close we watch 960 mb just off NC. I wonder if it can get pulled in what a weenie solution if it could 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 This is a classic s florida strike pattern. Trough split, allowing ridge to build explosively . Ecmwf has a phantom trough recurve like with Ike it showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 17, 2020 Author Share Posted August 17, 2020 Euro looks interesting..but EPS looks like a GOM runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 That 180 hr NAVGEM would be a hoot with a couple of 2's on either side of a panic stricken Florida - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 Not that y'all are not thinking this already buuuut... I'd say that is a remarkable trend on the Euro toward a pretty classic CV route thru the climo key slot of 60 naut mi ENE of PR ... with hugely comparative uptick in intensity profile... This is a bit rare for the Euro to do this and bite on a deterministic entity pre designation status/Invest... This model - I have personally noted .. - seems to require an actual presence in the sounding grid - or some form or another of sensible ingest therein ...before it takes off with these things so. It'll be interesting to see if this is just a fluke run or if the next cycle +'s can demo some continuity. Someone may have mentioned this a bit ago ...the UVV potential shows that the American hemisphere is coming to life right now - it may be the the Euro et al are tapping into that favorability ... not hurting that SAL appears normalized next week too. ...heh, watch us end up in triplicate - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 That's our '38 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 EPS looks like it has members split as usual. Some EC, some GOM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 She come 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 I may need to reread Isaac’s Storm to get me into the mood for another long tracker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 37 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: I may need to reread Isaac’s Storm to get me into the mood for another long tracker Great read! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Keep it far, very far away from us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 In terms of 'modeling cinema' ( the real desire that draws this engagement ...) we're being served up a Noir right now... Hard to know what is the greater dystopian value: any wayward outlier run that implicates a bomb going off; or the reality that there is no bomb to really see as very plausible given the recent detail-trends in these guidance... Lol ...either way, this may as well be black-and-white, wan-drawn couple of faces making eggs in a struggling economic kitchen, while an off-set homaged cigarette smoking clown sits behind them ... looking panel of model runs lately. It may just be an initialization issue. The 00z GFS for example... it seems to be having difficult knowing what atmospheric features to focusing upon ... creating and then speeding some amorphously defined TC "dent" in the trade winds N of of PR by a hair...Tracking that backward to 0 -hr...it almost looks like it's targeting the region equidistant between where there are any actual definable zygotes when looking at sat and other wind data to suggest perturbation tracking/entities... It's like ( haha ) the model "has a feeling" something could develop down there somewhere... 06z seems to be better targeting wrt to space and time with the proper entity, but decides it keep it flat and inconsequential throughout. Meanwhile, the Euro two or three cycles ago had the present 90/90 Invest cork-screwed to a Cat 2 near Florida ...but has since meh'ed it's way into focusing entirely on the wave about to come off African which TPC - being model reliant more and more in making Invest assessing - is Xing off features still 500 km over land near Sierra Leone ... Basically, ... we are in throw enough shit into the fan, something oughta stick on the wall mode - we'll just have to gauge the speckles as they emerge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Is it common for a MCS still over land to be given an “invest” so early? I can’t remember ever seeing that before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Is it common for a MCS still over land to be given an “invest” so early? I can’t remember ever seeing that before? Hehhh...it's not that uncommon? putting a question mark on that ...because it's not that uncommon recently, since ...perhaps 6 or 8 years ago. Before then not so much - I've been commenting here and there how it is evidenced that TPC/NHC seems to have adopted a kind of increased modeling reliance when making deterministic assessments on development regions. That kind of model sophistication come more into play around those teenage years of this century...prior to that, the science and 'state of art' of the craft just wasn't as veracious. They've probably got statistical proof that doing so is better than human ability to do so? I agree - So the short answer is that it's become less uncommon. They did this with Josephine recently along the EC ... That was an X with a 20/50 I think when it was sitting some 75 miles inland of VA Beach over the interior coastal plain down there. The models were developing it...and well... it developed... so, score. Looks to me like the Euro operational is interested with this feature... Getting that particular model to even dent the trade pressure pattern off a wave Invest still 500 km inland ...some 6 days out in time is nothing shy of herculean - it's like trying to reform a sociopath into an empathic aware, functional civilian... but the model seems to at least show contrition in this case - that's snark - The ensemble mean also has said dent and pretty much it is impossible at this point to abase the zeitgeist dough-eyed adoration for the ECMWF product suite so having it sympathetic to that wave ... might also be adding to the enthusiasm there - lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Yawn. Still looks like some issues out there with these disturbances regardless how super-duper awesome the MJO is. I suppose 98-l or whatever it is east of the Antilles, could become something if it can avoid land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yawn. Still looks like some issues out there with these disturbances regardless how super-duper awesome the MJO is. I suppose 98-l or whatever it is east of the Antilles, could become something if it can avoid land. That's so funny ... ( bold ) cuz I was just rubbing forehead over that UVM stuff.... Like, if it's not that then, SAL...nope. Shear ...unlikely with that layout... Ice berg upwelling along the SST trade zone, only in sci fi... I dunno - beats the hell oughta me. Maybe the moon's eccentricity is causing a cascade thermal suppression anomaly by magneto-guided polarity acting as a mechanical inhibitor to rotating motion - yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Boy that is an impressive wave over western Africa tho ... I mean just eye-ballin' convention/coarse data - can't say I blame any agency's triggering there. That sucker emerges off the continent over any SSTs so much as tepid and it's probably going to become a huge "sucker" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 "either way, this may as well be black-and-white, wan-drawn couple of faces making eggs in a struggling economic kitchen, while an off-set homaged cigarette smoking clown sits behind them" This is pure TT language. Love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That's so funny ... ( bold ) cuz I was just rubbing forehead over that UVM stuff.... Like, if it's not that then, SAL...nope. Shear ...unlikely with that layout... Ice berg upwelling along the SST trade zone, only in sci fi... I dunno - beats the hell oughta me. Maybe the moon's eccentricity is causing a cascade thermal suppression anomaly by magneto-guided polarity acting as a mechanical inhibitor to rotating motion - yeah There still is some dry air and TUTTs around too. I saw an image of a lot od dry air near and north of 98-l and also still getting these hot 850 plumes ripping off Africa. At least at this moment, it's not all coming together. An easy way to see this is looping the GFS and Euro. We know when they spit out those lows in the extended something is favorable...even if they are too bullish. That's not even happening! I do think it gets better heading into September. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: "either way, this may as well be black-and-white, wan-drawn couple of faces making eggs in a struggling economic kitchen, while an off-set homaged cigarette smoking clown sits behind them" This is pure TT language. Love it huh... lol, what is "TT language"? ... just making fun for the depressing dearth of drama in the cinema of the models, by comparing them to that metaphor's drab misery - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There still is some dry air and TUTTs around too. I saw an image of a lot od dry air near and north of 98-l and also still getting these hot 850 plumes ripping off Africa. At least at this moment, it's not all coming together. An easy way to see this is looping the GFS and Euro. We know when they spit out those lows in the extended something is favorable...even if they are too bullish. That's not even happening! I do think it gets better heading into September. Mm yeah that's fascinating ... interesting too - these "zygotes" are probably the most fragile atmospheric phenomenon there is... A sailor's fart disrupts and we end up with busted raviolis that propagate along in perfect environmental conditions ... vomiting short of cat 1 status, while people entertain us with 'worries' about RI's ...that of course don't take place. Maybe these plumes and "invisible" butterflies turn the pen of those story-lines - obviously they do... It could be these sort of nuances in the punch bowl - ...I admit to seldom spending the time to look stuff that discrete, as I don't have subscriber access to the sophisticated rainbow of technologies that's above my pay-willingness ... that being, free Digression: It irks me that free-data provided by satellite and radar and wind and other parametrical observation net, that is ultimately available because of tax-payer economics, is then used to turn a huge profit ...off the same tax-payers. But, there's other shit about the world to be outraged over that's probably ethically more reprehensible than this petty hang up I'm describing so ...I am not without awareness there - lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 19, 2020 Author Share Posted August 19, 2020 98l looking pretty good today, lets see if it fires up tonight.. Recon tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said: 98l looking pretty good today, lets see if it fires up tonight.. Recon tomorrow. I'm guessin' the present flare up's gonna earn it a dessie - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Roll w the 12z hmon 952 into Miami Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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