tamarack Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: I don't think we're in a TC drought - per se ... - in New England. Unless this has changed ... I recall reading there's a rough 30 year periodicity for at or > cat 1 threat N of NYC latitude/coast... We had Bob in ' 91? ...plus, a cornucopia of residual threats that might sorta kinda argue for occurrence ( tho lame) via the lesser aggregate. Expectations are constant drama and dystopian or bust, I know ... Lol 38 44 54 (X2 or 3 - does Hazel count?) 60? (Did Donna make landfall in New England, or offer Cat 1 winds in the region?) long jump 85 91 That's 6-8 from 1900 forward (assuming none 1900-37) - looks more like a 20-year periodicity unless I'm missing something. Of course, 20 yr period isn't 20/40/60/80 due to the stochastic nature of wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 Hmmm 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 43 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Hmmm Clearly this needs to be watched by everyone on the EC. 12z GFS does an inland recurve and brings remnants to us. 12z Op Euro has it at the same latitude, just 200 miles off the GA-FL coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 Worth watching , hopefully doesn’t crap itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 Bahamas needs to be watched. System there has been producing persistent and consistent convection. There appears to be a strong mid-level low present. SSTs over 29.5C in the Bahamas, strong upper level anticyclonic flow producing strong northern (Poleward) outflow channel, wind shear less than 15 knots, less if the ULAC develops overhead. We need to see a surface center develop further, but chances are low if anything develops. It will head out to sea ahead of a trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 92L needs to be watched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 100 bun salute. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 4 hours ago, Dan76 said: GFS Bring 'er up here. NC and Canada do not need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 26, 2020 Author Share Posted July 26, 2020 hopefully it skips some of the Caribbean islands that are still recovering from Irma/Maria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 GFS and CMC recurve but were close Euro dissipates after hitting the shredder.. my sons bday is August 4th would be cool to get something around then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NSwx Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 I would love to see this play out exactly as the 00z Gfs is depicting. I had my share of Hurricane winds last year but we really do need a nice soaking of rain only the tropics can deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: GFS and CMC recurve but were close Euro dissipates after hitting the shredder.. my sons bday is August 4th would be cool to get something around then Maybe blow the roof off as he’s blowing out bday candles? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Maybe blow the roof off as he’s blowing out bday candles? We hope 6z GFS might be good out to hr 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Hoping for some big surf a la Bill when I'm back at Fishers in a few weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 26, 2020 Author Share Posted July 26, 2020 Most likely a recurve i bet but should be something to track, currently not well organized yet so depending on where that low forms, models will need to adjust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 5 hours ago, NSwx said: I would love to see this play out exactly as the 00z Gfs is depicting. I had my share of Hurricane winds last year but we really do need a nice soaking of rain only the tropics can deliver. Are you on Sable Island year-round? Must get some pretty wild stuff out there....would be nice to spend a week out there in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NSwx Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 20 minutes ago, rimetree said: Are you on Sable Island year-round? Must get some pretty wild stuff out there....would be nice to spend a week out there in winter. I live on Cape Sable Island on the very southern tip of NS. Would love to visit Sable at some point though, certainly some active weather to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Cape gets brushed on the 12z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Sling it and bring it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NSwx Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Cape gets brushed on the 12z CMC Meanwhile GFS is down in Georgia lol Split the difference and SNE looks prime 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NSwx Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Not much use tracking exactly what happens right now. The steering pattern is the thing to watch, on the ensembles. Immediate environment around 92L right now. We will be bouncing around on the models after a center is developed and definitely bouncing before that. Definitely a vigorous looking wave, I have faith this one will be talked about a fair amount in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 On 7/25/2020 at 3:24 PM, tamarack said: 38 44 54 (X2 or 3 - does Hazel count?) 60? (Did Donna make landfall in New England, or offer Cat 1 winds in the region?) long jump 85 91 That's 6-8 from 1900 forward (assuming none 1900-37) - looks more like a 20-year periodicity unless I'm missing something. Of course, 20 yr period isn't 20/40/60/80 due to the stochastic nature of wx. It might have been 20 yeah. But “drought” should imply a ‘serious dearth’ extending beyond that range ... to which neither in statistical parlance or spirit are we there. I’d also suggest that hurricanes coming up the coast like ‘38 .. Hazel ... etc, might Even get more rare with an expanded Hadley Cell Just an educated hunch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 We CMC!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: We CMC!! That is a Bob redux,almost exact track and bend east 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 12 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: That is a Bob redux,almost exact track and bend east Some of the 6z GEFS show the same.. we take 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Some of the 6z GEFS show the same.. we take we hope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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