SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

[Typhoon Tip]

I’m going to be interested in whether the model’s call for a day five windshear of 20 to 30 nights from the southwest actually materializes at that particular latitude longitude; where they expect this would be tropical storm to be situated at that particular space and time would be a bit of a wind anomaly at this time of year at that velocity

[ineedsnow]

Oz CMC still likes soon to be Josephine 

[Typhoon Tip]

On 8/10/2020 at 11:18 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t believe SAL is going to keep a lid on much longer. I’d argue it hasn’t done much this season to keep things in check, at least in terms of TC genesis—as we just had a historically active July. SAL will always be around as we see large and vigorous waves roll off Africa, but the large and vigorous waves are themselves evidence of a favorable environment. 

As the MJO/CCKW rolls through the basin you will see favorable rising motion for convection and a decline in shear. That combined with a +++favorable SST/TCHP environment and continued strong AEWs should blow things up late August through at least the climatological peak in September. Steering pattern TBD. 

Even if SAL manages to cap things in the eastern and central Atlantic, if shear is low basin wide, some of these waves would merely keep spinning until they reach a more favorable environment in the western Atlantic or worse, western Caribbean. 

I’m not saying everything coming off Africa will develop of course, and not everything will become an Irma or Maria, but I’m as bullish as you can get on an active peak. It’s hard to look at the overall environment and coming pattern and think anything but the basin is primed for another extraordinary period of activity.

That's an interesting factoid for a couple of abstractions... 

Namely, it did not "seem" to be very active, and perhaps more importantly 'why did it only seem so'? 

I think some of that may be my own personal conditioning, and though I pride myself on resisting the beguiling allure faux persistence ... I am human.  By "faux" ( or miss-representation ..) there has most certainly been an increased frequency in designation - I'll give it that much.

I am being sort of sarcastic there in that a lot of those events in this so-called over-active July, seemed - imho - to be a bit nit-picking to be honest.  Were the July's of 1955 really less? Particularly when that era did not benefit from satellite or any other in the dizzying array of technologies availing to the modern observers. To mention, the science in classification of what is and is not a tropical entity was not quite as theoretically established or as indoctrinated as policy therefrom. When did the turn of phrase, "Phase diagram" and percentages over the quatradures become common practice...and on and so on.  I mean, they weren't idiots, no. In fact, they were true fisherman because their tech mis se science did not merely provide them fish like alarms sounding off when DIVORAC pegs a threshold for ravioli status, heh.  Haha, they're probably out playing Golf with an iPhone app networked to the TPC lab, "bing bing" ... "Damn, right on my backstroke".  So between nit-picking via the virtue of technological evolution vs actually having to hand-draw geostrophic gradients while waiting for primitive non-ubiquitous radio buoys and/or fortuitously interloping shipping traffic ... with sleeves rolled up over cigarettes and coffee ( because of course ... the latter was still actually 'good for you' in those days) ...somewhere in between there might be a more "realistically" observed July...   

I'm trying to be diplomatically skeptical here...  ...any "historical" designation of ooh-and ah for any very modern July that featured ground meat gets an asterisk - 

It would help 2020's street cred if it put up an overactive "historical" July that removed all doubt - blown open raviolis out there coughing out exposed llv whirls betrayed only by the remarkable achievement of HD imagery from 22,500 thousand miles into space ...is like cheering on privilege for making it home when they start on 2nd Base. It's really almost more notable as an achievement of human ingenuity and AI than anything else.  I'm being tongue-in-cheek to anyone above half-wit comprehension. Actually, only an idiot would go against the modern end, as more accurate .. but that's the confusion. The debate is confused as competency - the "tree fell in the woods" in both eras, but we are just more capable now of hearing the thuds... 

Mind you.. the1950s was an active decade ... I bet one or two of those July's just might have had a few busted raviolis out there in their own unsung rights and heroics..

[Typhoon Tip]

There could be a seasonal precedence sort of trend-type to consider - it'll get us every time, when you've done a thing several times and start doubting any recurrence. 

We had something in June... cross over PR and got ravaged and plumed its over-designated vestige was pulled on up the coast as a 78 F DP wash ...  Fay?   God... I write from a head-space voided of quickly accessible memory. Not sure how that's possible but - heh.  

But then we just did ISIS ... a.k.a., "Isiasi"   

Seems these were for merely either just getting lucky, or ... Gaia is sending notifications that our license to build trillion dollars of assets in infrastructure and priceless decades of family, friends, and forsaken love interest story lines is about to be revoked for failure to renew on humility - like the DMV sends those? 

Re the luck part...  We did Fay and ISIS by ally-oop timing. Both found ways to roll dice in a longer termed pattern that does not suggest that would be favorable - like the annuls preceding that minor wind event that didn't do much in 1938 over Long Island.  Apparently... it was a sultry misty summer with drizzly humid day toward the end of August and September... That smacks as a Bahama conveyor pattern to me - which typically needs to have a neg anomaly somewhere around WV ...with a WAR exerting west from the Atlantic.  It was a like na na na-na daring the tropics ...  But this year?  Nah...  this was ridging and heat prevalent pervasive then relaxed just in time for two days for something to turn the corner and up they rode.  

That behavior in its self... the "getting lucky" may be more like some kind of super-physical ( no, not "meta" - ) connective tissue between the tropics and the mid latitudes... I think I could almost Sci-Fi guess what that is - I think the expanded HC may also become more integral in timing those TC/latent heat delivery pathways into the lower Ferril Cell latitudes .. fascinating.  

Anyway, this feature out there looks remarkably similar to ISIS the way it was handled in the models...with weak or no reflection and over assessing shear stress.  Yet, it nearer terms... the models had to correct for that a little - at any rate.  'Nough so that when it won the battle and turned the corner E of Florida still intact enough, it benefitted from lowering relative-shear and just barely made the "omg cut" as a categorical TC.  Here we are... languishing in this heat and a ridge that the models keep trying to premature get us to early December again...and this thing comes along and gee!  Go wonder, ...the GGEM puts a N-S orient baroclinic wall over the EC on D8.6 which could very well end up being another Bahama conveyor much in the same way.  

Seasonal trends... they'll getcha everytime -

we'll see

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I hear ya, Tip. Would have been nice to have a major or two like the outrageous 2005 season to leave no doubt but that’s the highest of the highest end. Even the hyperactive years don’t achieve that level of action in July. As for looking at the 50s, active decade for sure but we work with the data we have. 

Mm.. nah, I still say you have to send them through an objective scale of relativity scope, a process that takes into consideration the fuller spectrum of capacity of that era and so forth - it sounds like your still bargaining a little there to maintain the giggly specter of having seen that. Unfortunately, ...we can't do that anyway - because any depression over the eastern limb of the happenin' wild and crazy Sargaso doldrums of The Roarin' 1920s are indeterminately lost to the vagaries of the wind.  

  What is it that we actually saw?  ... know what would be cool... time travel - go back in time with the full array of sat tech and blaze away the surface of the earth, sped up several orders of magnitude so that the Mesosoic Era until 10 minutes ago is completely available for analysis.   I've often thought it would be deviantly if not psychotically amusing to go back in time to the great war of the Visigoths as they stormed gallantly over the hills ...straight headlong into the casualty spray of a couple of Gatling guns - wonder how the timeline of global ethos and pathos gets redrawn ... hm. It's kind of is an indictment of Satan's providence over man - because if he is everything the Catholic heredity of philosophy believes, and he doesn't like good, go back and make things bad.  Or, maybe we are in hell - and he's just won the battle and therein there is no need.  I kind of like that in way ... Just a wee-bit of digression

It's just my opinion but it's too plausible that some 10 to 30% of these present eras are more advantaged and it should be noted that these records "might" ( good science offers healthy skepticism is all...) and not reflect more activity necessarily, comparing years past where/when no one was in the woods when the trees fell.

[MJO812]

Josephine  has formed 

Conditions doesn't look good moving forward with her development 

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Josephine  has formed 

Conditions doesn't look good moving forward with her development 

please keep us updated

[CoastalWx]

12 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Josephine  has formed 

Conditions doesn't look good moving forward with her development 

Meh still dry air around too. Don’t see RI happening that some saw.

[weatherwiz]

9 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Meh still dry air around too. Don’t see RI happening that some saw.

Josephine was never a threat to the eastern U.S. Outside of Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands just mostly fish fun. 

[weatherwiz]

If shear didn't look overly strong the GoM could be of interest moving into next weekend. 

[Cyclone-68]

30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If shear didn't look overly strong the GoM could be of interest moving into next weekend. 

Blah! it’s east coast or go bust here lol 

[Hoth]

30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If shear didn't look overly strong the GoM could be of interest moving into next weekend. 

Who knew the Gulf of Maine was such a hotbed of tropical genesis? Must be the relentless heat and dews.

[Hoth]

The system off Virginia is looking pretty healthy ATM.

[weatherwiz]

Really starting to crank in the EPAC

[ineedsnow]

Not for here but every models develops a huge storm in the North Atlantic.. That could shake the pattern a bit..

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Not for here but every models develops a huge storm in the North Atlantic.. That could shake the pattern a bit..

You know...may need one of those suckers (either in ATL or PAC) to do that. 

[Chrisrotary12]

Swirl off Delaware/New Jersey is better looking than Josephine.

[Dan]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 142036
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kyle Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122020
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

...TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY AWAY FROM LAND DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.7N 71.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kyle was
located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 71.7 West. Kyle is
moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A continued
east-northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible tonight and tomorrow. Kyle is
forecast to become post-tropical by late Sunday or early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky\

 

[tamarack]

Two more in a bunch of dwarf TCs.  How many of the 11 so far this year have exceeded 50 mph sustained?

[CoastalWx]

More junk storms. Still not a favorable Atlantic and nothing overly exciting for awhile. Yawn. 

[tamarack]

7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

7 at or above 50 mph by my count. 

I should've checked before posting.  Hanna (80) and Isaias (85) are the only ones with winds above 65 mph, and the current pair aren't likely to join those two.  Meh.  In fact, other than the post-equinocal snows, the past 12 months have been one long meh. 

[Gwhizkids]

I should've checked before posting.  Hanna (80) and Isaias (85) are the only ones with winds above 65 mph, and the current pair aren't likely to join those two.  Meh.  In fact, other than the post-equinocal snows, the past 12 months have been one long meh. 

The 1,000,000+ people who lost power in Connecticut, NY and NJ from Isaias would beg to differ.


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[tamarack]

14 minutes ago, Gwhizkids said:

The 1,000,000+ people who lost power in Connecticut, NY and NJ from Isaias would beg to differ.


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That's a great illustration of the Northeast's vulnerability to even a modest (for a hurricane) storm but doesn't alter my opinion of the West Atlantic season being a long parade of weaklings (so far.)  And up here the forecast of 1-2" barely made it to 0.7", though even that was welcomed.  And we've not had a drop since.

[CoastalWx]

42 minutes ago, Gwhizkids said:

The 1,000,000+ people who lost power in Connecticut, NY and NJ from Isaias would beg to differ.


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A bad grid in a wooded area from 50-70mph winds is not a good example. 

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

More junk storms. Still not a favorable Atlantic and nothing overly exciting for awhile. Yawn. 

Lets see what happens when a favorable MJo occurs. The " Twitter " experts are counting on a dangerous period coming up.

[Gwhizkids]

A bad grid in a wooded area from 50-70mph winds is not a good example. 

I am not as enthusiastic about these storms as I once was. I’ll leave it at that as I don’t want to get into the “is it bad to hope for a Cat 4 in SNE” type discussion. But, suffice it to say, even the 50-60kts we saw here was sufficient to do a lot of damage. And I don’t see CT cutting down all the trees or burying the electric service anytime soon...


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[tamarack]

23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

I’m not saying you need to place this season ahead of the greats right now just because we’re two named storms and ten days ahead of 2005’s pace, but seriously all you need to do is take a look at the genesis locations and dates of these systems and look at the historically favorable environment 2020 is producing pre-peak to know this isn’t some BS statistically inflated year. We’re quiet right now (with two tropical storms in the basin lol) only because of a classic MJO/CCKW propagation that suppresses the Atlantic and being ~1 week ahead of the start of the climo peak period.

If the peak fails to produce, then we have a real conversation to have but until then—put some damn respeck on this season’s name.

I'd guess 2020 ACE is less than half of 2005's to date.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I'd guess 2020 ACE is less than half of 2005's to date.

ACE is only like 20th going back to 1851. 

[CoastalWx]

33 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t think anyone would argue that a significant portion of the storms so far have been strong but what are we measuring against? The number of eye candy storms we think we should see? The unicorn season of 2005? Dennis and Emily were two systems that benefitted from tracking through the warmest part of the basin in the Caribbean. They weren’t even your traditional CV long trackers.

2004 had nothing until August when it went bananas.

2017 didn’t fire up until late August with Harvey and that was a system killed by a hostile Caribbean initially.

2018 wasn’t memorable until September onward. 

Last year was basically crickets until late August.

I’m not saying you need to place this season ahead of the greats right now just because we’re two named storms and ten days ahead of 2005’s pace, but seriously all you need to do is take a look at the genesis locations and dates of these systems and look at the historically favorable environment 2020 is producing pre-peak to know this isn’t some BS statistically inflated year. We’re quiet right now (with two tropical storms in the basin lol) only because of a classic MJO/CCKW propagation that suppresses the Atlantic and being ~1 week ahead of the start of the climo peak period.

If the peak fails to produce, then we have a real conversation to have but until then—put some damn respeck on this season’s name.

It could be busy and likely will be busy.  But it looks weak into early September. Still lots of dry air and SAL. It’s gonna have to get nuts in September. I’m sure it will at some point. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m not sure if it’s half of 2005, but it’ll certainly be significantly lower because 2005 had those two early major hurricanes.

If that’s the standard people are looking at, fine. I just don’t think that should be the lens for defining what this season has been so far.

To me that’s like saying on December 10th that while we’re double our climo (ACE is double the average at this point) the winter season hasn’t really been that good because we haven’t had a KU. Of course everything could fall apart moving forward but at this particular moment in time, it’s more than decent given the historical record.

We’re going to see. I’ve never been more bullish. I’m in the 2-3 week camp for when we really see a flare up but the EPS is beginning to show a signal for more activity toward the end of the month.

I’m just not sure what people are expecting in terms of daily tracking. 2017 reeled off ten consecutive hurricanes. That’s hard to do. Six weeks in 2004 were a nightmare for Florida. 2005 wasn’t even an MDR (Atlantic, not Caribbean) based season and it produced some of the strongest hurricanes on record in September/October.

There is a ton of potential basin wide, but I already get the feeling people have their minds made up on what will constitute a historic season to them without recognizing that there are a lot of different paths to get there.

The NOAA and CO state recent updates were prolific, so that’s what weenies want. I think it will get real busy too, but the hype machine always turns me off.  People thought Josephine would RI, but there is so much that goes into the inner working of a hurricane. We still had shear and SAL still present around Josephine.