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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020


Bostonseminole
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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Radar is improving too, though still ragged. Would really like to see convection firing closer to the center but this thing is holding its own...just as it did as half of AmWx tried to cancel it the last three days lol. 

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I'm still  bit nervous for further strengthening...it's in an area where if it strengthens it could take off. Obviously there is no model support for that but given how it's holding it's own as the shear weakens and it becomes more favorably aligned with the shear...who knows what could happen. 

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm still  bit nervous for further strengthening...it's in an area where if it strengthens it could take off. Obviously there is no model support for that but given how it's holding it's own as the shear weakens and it becomes more favorably aligned with the shear...who knows what could happen. 

Down to 993 now and strengthening  

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I think it'll get to cat 1, but I am a doubtful of anything higher end there. I'd need to see this wrap and stay first. The environment is better though so we'll see what happens. 

If it did get higher than a cat 1 we would be in deep trouble :lol: 

But I doubt so too...I'm thinking maybe 80-85 mph? 

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Haha yeah. If I had to guess right now I'd say 80 mph with a landfall in N Myrtle Beach. But there's a window to go a touch higher if this really wraps up. It has been so sensitive to convective changes that a big burst similar to what we saw after it crossed Haiti/DR could push it slightly past expectations. At this point, given the appearance on the south side of the center (radar, not IR), I doubt we see another dry air intrusion press the reset button on development. 

yeah it does appear as if it will stop ingesting dry air shortly...or very little. Where landfall happens will be big too...obviously the longer the eye stays over the water the greater the chance for strengthening but in this situation the longer it stays over water the closer to we towards sunset/evening when convection can start to increase. 

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