dryslot Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Droughtstein's forecast https://www.boston.com/weather/weather/2020/08/03/isaias-forecast-new-england MEH here Looks like your meeting with his brother Drystein. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Imagine getting paid to forecast weather and still using ms paint maps. Figure it out Epstein 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: I have the choice to be down in Dennisport for this. Should I go down? Or negligible difference? Negligible I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Droughtstein's forecast https://www.boston.com/weather/weather/2020/08/03/isaias-forecast-new-england MEH here I could see 50+ for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Looks like we'll avoid the basement flooding, which is fine by me, but hoping for a few decent thunderstorms with this to help the garden. Might be some good wind reports from IOSN but I think my biggest issue here will be whether the outdoor furniture stays upright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Is the fact that it’s been very windy the past two days in EMA related at all to what’s going on down the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 17 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Imagine getting paid to forecast weather and still using ms paint maps. Figure it out Epstein He’s the Brock Holt of TV mets. The utility guy for when others need a day off or go on vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 20 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Imagine getting paid to forecast weather and still using ms paint maps. Figure it out Epstein I'd rather have a correct forecast than a pretty one. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 I'm expecting a slight risk here when the new day 2 comes out!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 There has been another decent burst of convection flaring up the past few hours. Looks like its trying to wrap around the eye but still no luck. See what happens over the next 6-8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 9 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Is the fact that it’s been very windy the past two days in EMA related at all to what’s going on down the coast? Not really but there definitely have been some good gusts today which are refreshing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 32 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: I have the choice to be down in Dennisport for this. Should I go down? Or negligible difference? Look into the long term rate and wait until the next real threat comes along in a decade or 2........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 UK going stronger with QPF and inland winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Yeah looked a tick SE of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah looked a tick SE of 00z. I couldn't tell if it was that or it is just more compact (given the precip totals up and down the coast). Either way, if those precip totals verified to 80% a lot of dirt roads in western and central Mass would be in trouble. And luckily the Housatonic is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Can anyone post the latest Uk!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 As I say over and over on this board, Im not Met but to me Isaias really look like he is getting his act together. Sat Vis looks impressive and radar showing wrapping around the center. Perhaps this is going to go through a brief period of pretty rapid deepening? This is sure not a naked swirl coming up the coast. I wonder if this is going to be an overachiever? So many SNE storms go SE of us but a storm accelerating north up the coast and going just west on this track will surprise some. I think this will be a big overachiever and I don't usually say that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Pluffmud said: Can anyone post the latest Uk!? All sorts of good stuff here. Looks nasty verbatim for ern CT into RI. Not sure I buy it deepening like that over land, but I think some of the more baroclinic processes that we see in the wintertime, like strong venting from jet streaks, is helping. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2020080312&fh=36&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: As I say over and over on this board, Im not Met but to me Isaias really look like he is getting his act together. Sat Vis looks impressive and radar showing wrapping around the center. Perhaps this is going to go through a brief period of pretty rapid deepening? This is sure not a naked swirl coming up the coast. I wonder if this is going to be an overachiever? So many SNE storms go SE of us but a storm accelerating north up the coast and going just west on this track will surprise some. I think this will be a big overachiever and I don't usually say that. I'm still not impressed with satellite. It has a WSW-ENE elongated area of convection with drier air wrapping into the srn side. It's getting frontal features. However, from here on out, it may get a boost from things like jet stream, baroclinic processes etc. I haven't paid attn...is recon finding lower pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Looks like Wiz got his slight risk and 5% tornado risk tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: All sorts of good stuff here. Looks nasty verbatim for ern CT into RI. Not sure I buy it deepening like that over land, but I think some of the more baroclinic processes that we see in the wintertime, like strong venting from jet streaks, is helping. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2020080312&fh=36&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc= I can definitely see how it is not going to rapidly weaken over land like so many systems given the shear direction and jet. But keeping so much strength given the land track is hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: All sorts of good stuff here. Looks nasty verbatim for ern CT into RI. Not sure I buy it deepening like that over land, but I think some of the more baroclinic processes that we see in the wintertime, like strong venting from jet streaks, is helping. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2020080312&fh=36&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc= It has 80-100mph gusts . While my heart says yes please , my mind says too high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: All sorts of good stuff here. Looks nasty verbatim for ern CT into RI. Not sure I buy it deepening like that over land, but I think some of the more baroclinic processes that we see in the wintertime, like strong venting from jet streaks, is helping. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2020080312&fh=36&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc= Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Yeah, There is a lot of dry air moving around the circulation from the south to the east, The cyclone has battled that this whole time as well as shear but i'm impressed its been able to maintain its tropical strength with all that it has going against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 It would be “funny” if this storm suddenly decided to bomb out before it ran the coast. It would certainly shock a great number of people given the storm time is tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It has 80-100mph gusts . While my heart says yes please , my mind says too high Yeah that isn't happening. This isn't even the strength Irene was. This isn't Gloria either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 We can always go higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Looks like recon found 997mb in the NE quadrant in that convection on the mission that just finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: We can always go higher. It went just a little insane. 120mph gusts on the Jersey shore and LI. I will say this damn model has been consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Just now, PowderBeard said: It went just a little insane. 120mph gusts on the Jersey shore and LI. I will say this damn model has been consistent. I believe it's some kind of algorithm used to mechanically mix down wind from a certain level. I think there's rarely any real world validity to the numbers those maps spit out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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