SnowlieSnowstormson Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lmao..every storm we go through this with DIT, whether it a Nor Easter or major cold front, Sou Easter etc etc, and the forecast winds almost always disappoint. There aren’t enough Buns for him today. He will most likely be disappointed yet again when the 3 hour window of wind flops/or fails to reach impressive potential, as is the case almost all the time in SNE away from the shore, but time will tell. It does feel like only 1 in every 5 wind storms delivers the goods. Most seem to come in 10-20% under modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Watches upgraded to Warnings for interior SNE. Quote Isaias Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 26 National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA AL092020 1111 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 MAZ014-032315- /O.NEW.KBOX.TR.W.1009.200803T1511Z-000000T0000Z/ /O.UPG.KBOX.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ Southeast Middlesex MA- 1111 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours *edit to include more text* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 I don't recall the named storm but it was a good 5-7 years ago now that brought some solid winds to SE MA. Brought down some tress in the neighborhood. This looks nothing like that threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 EC 100m AGL wind. If we can warm sector up here it could be interesting for a couple hours. It's a long shot. Toss the 80mph winds, but it could get gusty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nova737 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I don't recall the named storm but it was a good 5-7 years ago now that brought some solid winds to SE MA. Brought down some tress in the neighborhood. This looks nothing like that threat. Was it Irene? wait, nvm. That was in 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 9 minutes ago, SnowlieSnowstormson said: It does feel like only 1 in every 5 wind storms delivers the goods. Most seem to come in 10-20% under modeling. Probably more like 30-40% under in most cases. Most of all the wind maps by models are usually always way off in actuality it seems. Maybe this will be different? But I wouldn’t be getting my hopes up. Take the under on wind in most all the cases around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I don't recall the named storm but it was a good 5-7 years ago now that brought some solid winds to SE MA. Brought down some tress in the neighborhood. This looks nothing like that threat. TS Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 11 am NHC Discussion mentions baro enhancement keeping the storm from weakening too fast, even though the track actually shifted a tad west and is now basically entirely inland after landfall Current westerly vertical wind shear of 20-25 kt is expected to decrease somewhat during the next 12 h and also become more southwesterly, which will be in better alignment with Isaias' forward motion vector. The decrease in the shear should result in less tilt to the cyclone, allowing Isaias to strengthen and regain hurricane status just before making landfall, and most of the intensity guidance shows a 60-65 kt system at that time. After landfall, Isaias is forecast to only slowly weaken due to interaction with an unusually strong winter-type jetstream that will be possessing winds of 100-120 kt. Expected strong baroclinic forcing will keep Isaias' circulation intact and also produce very strong wind gusts along the Mid-Atlantic states tomorrow. As a result, the gust factors at 24-48 h have been increased above the standard 20 percent in the Forecast/Advisory (TCMAT4). The cyclone is forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low over Canada in 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 We warn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 What's the difference between Tropical Storm Warning and High Wind Warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, snowman21 said: What's the difference between Tropical Storm Warning and High Wind Warning? TS warning requires 3 straight hours of vis reduced to 1/4 mile because of dews. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, snowman21 said: What's the difference between Tropical Storm Warning and High Wind Warning? Tropical storm Warning/winds goes from 39-74 mph I believe. High wind warning goes from 58 mph. I could be wrong so feel free to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 44 minutes ago, dryslot said: The SSE wind direction can get quite damaging, I'm already dealing with a couple of the lakes regions Marina concerns as there docks face those directions and have advised them to take necessary action to protect the boats that are tied up at least on the ends of them and move them closer in where they won't be exposed, They can handle gust in the 30's but that's at there limit. naples marina full. don't think jimmy has any room to move boats in. Glad mine is pretty close to the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Couple of things. SSTs are very warm, dews are moist. Any convective elements will be gusty above 50. Hopefully high winds stays to my west and south. Most of my damage storms though feature an anomalous southern jet with SE winds at the surface. Yeah I think this setup is a bit different from some of our previous setups. Ingredients we lack in those are present this go around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: Yeah I think this setup is a bit different from some of our previous setups. Ingredients we lack in those are present this go around Well we’ll see later tomorrow if that is indeed true/and if it plays out that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: naples marina full. don't think jimmy has any room to move boats in. Glad mine is pretty close to the shore. What about Timmy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 In terms of Tropical Storms in my lifetime (31 years) Floyd and Bertha were the only ones I remember by name. Floyd was interesting and got us two days out of school. Bertha because of the first tornado warnings in RI I remember. This one could be interesting but definitely not the rain totals of Floyd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 12 minutes ago, snowman21 said: What's the difference between Tropical Storm Warning and High Wind Warning? High Wind Warning A High Wind Warning is issued when the following conditions are expected: 1) sustained winds of 40 mph or higher for one hour or more OR 2) wind gusts of 58 mph or higher for any duration. Tropical Storm Warning A Tropical Storm Warning is issued when sustained winds of 34 to 63 kt (39 to 73 mph) or higher associated with a tropical cyclone are expected in 36 hours or less. These winds may be accompanied by storm surge, coastal flooding, and/or river flooding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: naples marina full. don't think jimmy has any room to move boats in. Glad mine is pretty close to the shore. Just got off the phone with Jimmy as i was typing lol, Your tucked in over there and pretty protected being on the C-D dock, I'd be more concerned if i had ones out on the ends of his new docks over by Jim Builds field which face SSE, He's going to pull 20 boats off the end and put them in the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 3K NAM is rather wild on BUFKIT. Mostly from mixing. Might actually not want rain if you want to mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well we’ll see later tomorrow if that is indeed true/and if it plays out that way? 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 3K NAM is rather wild on BUFKIT. Mostly from mixing. Might actually not want rain if you want to mix. It's really all about mixing. That's what is a little bit bizarre IMO about this is how well some of the models are mixing. Here is 12z BAM bufkit for BDL. I'm still pretty impressed at these CAPE values given the shear. Also note that little area of drying aloft..but NAM has been pretty wonky with dry air aloft so not sure if that is accurate. Would have to investigate further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 18 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: High Wind Warning A High Wind Warning is issued when the following conditions are expected: 1) sustained winds of 40 mph or higher for one hour or more OR 2) wind gusts of 58 mph or higher for any duration. Tropical Storm Warning A Tropical Storm Warning is issued when sustained winds of 34 to 63 kt (39 to 73 mph) or higher associated with a tropical cyclone are expected in 36 hours or less. These winds may be accompanied by storm surge, coastal flooding, and/or river flooding. Seems redundant to me if there's no flooding/surge component to the warning. It's like a blizzard warning without the visibility requirement. Why have a separate warning just because the high winds are from a tropical system versus a nor'easter? The public doesn't care, and the result is the same, other than when you say tropical storm it makes for a bigger headline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 3K NAM is rather wild on BUFKIT. Mostly from mixing. Might actually not want rain if you want to mix. The actual model gust product has some 50-60mph gusts across SNE and SE NH too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 9 minutes ago, snowman21 said: Seems redundant to me if there's no flooding/surge component to the warning. It's like a blizzard warning without the visibility requirement. Why have a separate warning just because the high winds are from a tropical system versus a nor'easter? The public doesn't care, and the result is the same, other than when you say tropical storm it makes for a bigger headline. It’s all Semantics really. The wind will blow..just how fast is the big question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 9 minutes ago, snowman21 said: Seems redundant to me if there's no flooding/surge component to the warning. It's like a blizzard warning without the visibility requirement. Why have a separate warning just because the high winds are from a tropical system versus a nor'easter? The public doesn't care, and the result is the same, other than when you say tropical storm it makes for a bigger headline. Petition the NWS to combine the 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Looks like the RPM (12z run anyways) has coastal CT sustained 40-50+ knots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Looks like the RPM (12z run anyways) has coastal CT sustained 40-50+ knots? I was surprised by that. I wouldn't be surprised to see the 18z NAM and GFS go crazy. 18z is when they both have been drinking for a few hours already and it manifests in massive QPF outputs (especially during winter storms). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Droughtstein's forecast https://www.boston.com/weather/weather/2020/08/03/isaias-forecast-new-england MEH here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: I was surprised by that. I wouldn't be surprised to see the 18z NAM and GFS go crazy. 18z is when they both have been drinking for a few hours already and it manifests in massive QPF outputs (especially during winter storms). Looks like surface temperatures should push close to...perhaps even a few ticks above 80 with sfc dews climbing into the 70's. Those two alone are going to yield llvl lapse rates a bit steeper than we would usually see in this type of environment and not too beat this dead horse but much of this happening during peak heating hours is pretty huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 3K NAM is rather wild on BUFKIT. Mostly from mixing. Might actually not want rain if you want to mix. I have the choice to be down in Dennisport for this. Should I go down? Or negligible difference? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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