Typhoon Tip Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 I like Ryan's observation of the exit region of that massive jet structure that is both velocity and directionally diffluent as it fans over central/NNE... Really, anything that has UVM that happens to intersect that region near the Del Marve to the NY Bite region is likely going to get a significant upward assist. It's an interesting point I had not considered. I was thinking this system was purely embedded in a large synoptic transport pattern ... laminar and deep in the troposphere from the Bahamas all the way up. And that being so weak to start, then translating partially eclipsing the coast as it gains latitude - if it were up to these factors alone, I would definitely be averse to the notion of this being much of a player nearing 40 N... I'm not sure how that fairly unique circumstance he points out with the jet/larger synoptic fluid mechanical layout may feedback. If this thing doesn't get more develope/re-developed profile soon, though,...I almost wonder if that set up isn't a weak spinner swarm anyway - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I like Ryan's observation of the exit region of that massive jet structure that is both velocity and directionally diffluent as it fans over central/NNE... Really, anything that has UVM that happens to intersect that region near the Del Marve to the NY Bite region is likely going to get a significant upward assist. It's an interesting point I had not considered. I was thinking this system was purely embedded in a large synoptic transport pattern ... laminar and deep in the troposphere from the Bahamas all the way up. And that being so weak to start, then translating partially eclipsing the coast as it gain latitude - if it were up to these factors alone, I would definitely be averse to the notion of this being much of a player nearing 40 N... I'm not sure how that fairly unique circumstance he points out with the jet/larger synoptic fluid mechanical layout may feedback. If this thing doesn't get more develope/re-developed profile soon, though,...I almost wonder if that set up isn't a weak spinner warm anyway - Surprised Wiz hasn’t picked up on it but Ryan and Scooter were discussing spinner threat tonight on the warm front with a huge UHI spike . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Yeah I had posted about that right entrance region a couple days ago wrt the possible PRE, but it makes sense if we’re exhausting that well aloft that it could give a little boost to the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Surprised Wiz hasn’t picked up on it but Ryan and Scooter were discussing spinner threat tonight on the warm front with a huge UHI spike . These/those results are difficult to forecast. Some LCL scenarios do...some don't... But, the shear profiles being what they are, that is interesting whether there is a coherent TC or not. A few posts ago I mused to Scott or someone that I bet the Logan sounding was already looking tropical WRONG I didn't realize there was a weak cold front passing through ... We seem to have temporarily laid in some dry air... BDL and ORH DPs are in the low 60s at ASOS which I was shocked ... It's actually nice out...not torrid or humid unless standing in the sun but that's different. Anyway, this frontal tapestry will either have to wash out or lift back N and will given the modeling ...so that does also enhance a bit of warm frontal positive rotation kinematics... That's separate from the TC or TC remnants that Ryan tweeted howester... Perhaps there are two period to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Surprised Wiz hasn’t picked up on it but Ryan and Scooter were discussing spinner threat tonight on the warm front with a huge UHI spike . I've made several posts on the tornado threat but I don't think I've mentioned about tonight but there is potential overnight as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 No one has said there would not be wind damage potential in SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Ryan is on Fire this morning on Twitter . Crushing it like another Aaron Judge HR! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 No one is doubting S CT and LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: No one is doubting S CT and LI. Is Kev moving there? He's pimped out a lot of srn CT and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: No one is doubting S CT and LI. DIT will be using MTP obs for this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: No one is doubting S CT and LI. 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: No one is doubting S CT and LI. Except he’s talking about the whole state. Lol. Sorry this ones not for you or Scooter. You’ll get one at some point fella Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 IDK..there does seem to be a window where we could get gusts 50-60+ mph across a large part of CT. NAM soundings...well at least 3km NAM actually don't really have much...if any...of an inversion which is actually quite bizarre I would think. But it looks like we maximize the LLJ during peak heating (yes it's clouds but that is important) and there looks to be potential for quite a bit of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Glorified Noreaster with a name. We get better noreasters in October. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 35G45 at the stem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: IDK..there does seem to be a window where we could get gusts 50-60+ mph across a large part of CT. NAM soundings...well at least 3km NAM actually don't really have much...if any...of an inversion which is actually quite bizarre I would think. But it looks like we maximize the LLJ during peak heating (yes it's clouds but that is important) and there looks to be potential for quite a bit of convection. Let em go. They’re jealous, they troll. That’s how it works . Ryan is discussing this statewide . They know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let em go. They’re jealous, they troll. That’s how it works . Ryan is discussing this statewide . They know that Ryan gave you his forecast. I don't know what you are trying to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 And who is jealous? I don't see a big difference across SNE except for rain. I AM jealous of VT. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let em go. They’re jealous, they troll. That’s how it works . Ryan is discussing this statewide . They know that We are all in this together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let em go. They’re jealous, they troll. That’s how it works . Ryan is discussing this statewide . They know that there is definitely some room statewide for 50-60 mph gusts. Not sure that will pan out or if it will but this look is a bit concerning for CT...especially with potential for tornadoes. That''s n awful lot of llvl CAPE being modeled given these shear parameters. But even putting aide tornado potential...those CAPE values alone would be enough to transport down very strong winds...especially if the LLJ does max out over us. One underrated aspect going for us is this all happens during peak heating hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ryan gave you his forecast. I don't know what you are trying to say. Don't be stealing Kevins wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 What and where were the strongest gusts with Fay? How many spinners came from that one? I remember hearing forecast of 4-8 spinners and widespread wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ryan gave you his forecast. I don't know what you are trying to say. He is bathing in the afterglow of a dilf tug 86f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ryan gave you his forecast. I don't know what you are trying to say. That was yesterday’s first guess. It’s different now lol . Verification will be fun. That’s for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That was yesterday’s first guess. It’s different now lol . Verification will be fun. That’s for sure That was this morning..lol. But yeah, I think some 60+ potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 I’ll enjoy my EF0 and wait for the next one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: IDK..there does seem to be a window where we could get gusts 50-60+ mph across a large part of CT. NAM soundings...well at least 3km NAM actually don't really have much...if any...of an inversion which is actually quite bizarre I would think. But it looks like we maximize the LLJ during peak heating (yes it's clouds but that is important) and there looks to be potential for quite a bit of convection. Couple of things. SSTs are very warm, dews are moist. Any convective elements will be gusty above 50. Hopefully high winds stays to my west and south. Most of my damage storms though feature an anomalous southern jet with SE winds at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That was this morning..lol. But yeah, I think some 60+ potential is there. I’m going to just sit back and watch as things unfold . No sense going back and forth. I like my forecasts of 50-60 statewide with higher in any severe. I’ll just leave it there and that’ll do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Lmao..every storm we go through this with DIT, whether it a Nor Easter or major cold front, Sou Easter etc etc, and the forecast winds almost always disappoint. There aren’t enough Buns for him today. He will most likely be disappointed yet again when the 3 hour window of wind flops/or fails to reach impressive potential, as is the case almost all the time in SNE away from the shore, but time will tell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Couple of things. SSTs are very warm, dews are moist. Any convective elements will be gusty above 50. Hopefully high winds stays to my west and south. Most of my damage storms though feature an anomalous southern jet with SE winds at the surface. The SSE wind direction can get quite damaging, I'm already dealing with a couple of the lakes regions Marina concerns as there docks face those directions and have advised them to take necessary action to protect the boats that are tied up at least on the ends of them and move them closer in where they won't be exposed, They can handle gust in the 30's but that's at there limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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