weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: F4 in BDL. 1979 all over again. airplanes being tossed into the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This storm looks like absolute ka-ka. I’d be surprised if there is much of any tropical wind core left by the time it reaches here. All gonna be hoping you get s LLJ max as it rapidly expands eastward. Like the side of your explorer after taking Kevin home from the bar. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This storm looks like absolute ka-ka. I’d be surprised if there is much of any tropical wind core left by the time it reaches here. All gonna be hoping you get s LLJ max as it rapidly expands eastward. Too bad you spiked so early Saturday. Now you gotta go down with that ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This storm looks like absolute ka-ka. I’d be surprised if there is much of any tropical wind core left by the time it reaches here. All gonna be hoping you get s LLJ max as it rapidly expands eastward. Exactly ...my sentiments. I am not sure what those modeling/wind products are based upon - I assume some sort of raw gridded imputs off the various sigma levels, then adiabats as a start... blah blah... but you just get the "feel" looking that decompressing pressure pattern and losing standard intervals so rapidly in many guidances ( not to mention, that behavior fits this system's history)... while only being 990-ish in the first place. I've seen people play Golf with wind prospects like that. I joked last night that this thing might glide over like a decoupled/detached see-through frisbie ... It floats over head and people look around vaguely aware for hearing it go by - I don't know...right now it's a busted blown out ravioli ... In fact, though it is probably just an artifice of hiding in the hi res vis loops, it almost appeals at that vaneer like the SW quadrant isn't even closing into the arc anymore. This system is a single curve wind band on the NE quad... just at first glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Too bad you spiked so early Saturday. Now you gotta go down with that ship. So you're on board today? Nice...that's 2 days in a row. You've been alternating daily for the last 5 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: So you're on board today? Nice...that's 2 days in a row. You've been alternating daily for the last 5 days. Go back and check . I’ve been on this tracking west with wind being the issue. I said rain would be well west and that was not a threat . While a couple mets said this would trend East and would be no wind . We tried to tell em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 If I had to guess, I think CT probably has the best chance of winds in the srn part of the state vs rest of region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Oh, the official guidance designation is over land ... at our latitude ?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Oh, the official guidance designation is over land ... at our latitude ?! Guys, do yourselves a favor - don't post It’s transitioning to ET. Will be totally ET and is phasing with the trough. You’ll be wishing you didn’t make these posts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If I had to guess, I think CT probably has the best chance of winds in the srn part of the state vs rest of region. Could be a couple of good gusts on Tolland since they mix out so well and torch easily on S winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: Could be a couple of good gusts on Tolland since they mix out so well and torch easily on S winds. I’m curious. What’s your wind forecast for CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s transitioning to ET. Will be totally ET and is phasing with the trough. You’ll be wishing you didn’t make these posts lol DIT phone home 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Too bad you spiked so early Saturday. Now you gotta go down with that ship. I’ll be tracking the Tolland stem wind gusts with bated breath. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 3, 2020 Author Share Posted August 3, 2020 weak sauce on satellite and recon.. should be a breezy day with a few storms.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If I had to guess, I think CT probably has the best chance of winds in the srn part of the state vs rest of region. BDR and GON are pretty exposed. They might have some ok gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m curious. What’s your wind forecast for CT? It definitely looks breezy for a period down there...especially the southern counties. But sorry...this isn’t “the one” for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Tropical or not the main threat in CT is the LLJ and any mixing down of those gusts. Every model this morning has that jet maxing out close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Isaias looked better last night, It's been a constant battle with this cyclone fighting wind shear and dry air which looks to still be the case again this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Mm.. in terms of "relative error" ..I'd have to give the nod to the Euro tho - so far and overall The NAVGEM - which ...shouldn't exist as a "model" ...but just to make the point - has had a couple runs into the Category 2 range of EC abrasion all the way up. Which is intuitively laughable anyway, but using that as the upper bound... the Euro on the other hand, while being just an open wave at times taking this into the Gulf Of Mexico, does sort of win by virtue of just being weak in over all integrity ... This thing has had a low shear, high oceanic heat content since it was 800 mi E of the Windward Isles ...and it's just coughed like an old Jalopy all the way up ... Sometimes these things take a bit of reanalysis to figure out - Whatever the reason, the Euro seems to get credit in my mind for general reticence to commit to this thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Isaias looked better last night, It's been a constant battle with this cyclone fighting wind shear and dry air which looks to still be the case again this morning. Knock down those rain totals I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Isaias looked better last night, It's been a constant battle with this cyclone fighting wind shear and dry air which looks to still be the case again this morning. Yeah Isis not looking so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not me in VT Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On to the next one, Southern Vermont has been pretty boring all year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 I actually think the euro was terrible for track and timing. Just yesterday it had this maxing out before 12z Wed. The 00z run sped it up by like 8 hrs. Pretty bad for that model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 It’s time for James to remove the boards from his windows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 The models were forecasting the increasing shear though - that specific aspect should not come as a surprise... I mean, if one chooses to use the models. Despite that, why then did some models attemp "re" intensification ( more like intensification at all...) as it was moving parallel or on the coast? After acceleration commences... that might be a response ( internal physical processing) in the models of having said acceleration lower the storm-relative shear. This sort of 2ndary profile sustaining if not some regain after recurve is observed at times in the past, particularly those system running out SE of NS over the G-string en route to England ...sort of collocated ... They could be moving along at 45 mph at that point, and regaining cane 1 status... I've seen this a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Sorry to ruin the no wind Debbie downer posts that have been going on, but this is what is reality 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 The chief of CT speaks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Isaias is starting to look better to me. Deep convection is wrapping around the eye feature. Still moving slight west of north but the turn soon to help with shear. Recon had pressure at 1001 and now back down a bit to 1000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Yeah the Euro's specifics on this were abysmal ...particularly when it was 3 and 5 days back ... comparing those run times to where we are now... no doubt. Still ( and it may just be dumb luck! ) the Euro's never liked this thing. This thing has never liked 'this thing' Those two observations = the same thing... a paltry result. That's all I'm saying - That aside ... we have to remember that the Euro isn't a bad model ...hello. And, just because it kept this thing on life-support too long and had to finally "find it" in the physics eventually ...doesn't mean it will be necessarily wrong going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 24 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Knock down those rain totals I guess The higher rain totals are looking to be west of you and I, 0.50 -1.5" tops right now and i would lean more in the middle, We will see more wind then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now