CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s never going to look pretty . It’s transitioning. All about the phase It won't really transition much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: IR tops warmed even during nighttime max. It's been a bag of COVID its whole life anyways I suppose. Recon is just going center. If Im reading it right 999.1mb Sure not strenghtening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Key West morning out there for sure. My windows were all fogged up like an overnight warm frontal passage in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Hopefully it I’ll be enough rain to reveal any roof shortcomings for our home inspection in Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Euro sucked with this one. The timing differences from 12z run yesterday vs 00z last night are LOL. Go America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Recon having fun doing loops around center. 996.4 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro sucked with this one. The timing differences from 12z run yesterday vs 00z last night are LOL. Go America. Be luck if we see 30mph gusts and 1/4" of rain at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warwick WX Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Barely any rain and a stiff breeze in my neck of the woods, yuck. My water bill is going to be sky high with how much we're using to keep the grass from going yellow, in the words of the late/great Rodney Dangerfield "let's go while we're young!" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Be luck if we see 30mph gusts and 1/4" of rain at this point. 06z 3km NAM 0.10" 06z 12KM NAM 0.33" 00z RGEM 0.25" 00z GGEM 0.50" 00z Euro 0.25" 00z Ukie 0.50" 06z GFS 0.60" Was hoping for at least 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 06z 3km NAM 0.10" 06z 12KM NAM 0.33" 00z RGEM 0.25" 00z GGEM 0.50" 00z Euro 0.25" 00z Ukie 0.50" 06z GFS 0.60" Was hoping for at least 1" You'll be lucky for 0.3". We are getting close if not surpassing 2016 for dryness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Is it even going to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Is it even going to rain? It's more like a cane devil. Just a lot of blowing sand. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 All the best forcing for rain is west of the circulation. Gonna be huge disappointment around eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: All the best forcing for rain is west of the circulation. Gonna be huge disappointment around eastern areas. Yeah I think at this juncture anyone looking for or thinking we'll see widespread heavy rainfall is misguided. There will be some heavy rain...just not as widespread as some are thinking. At this juncture the greatest concern is 1) Winds and power outage potential 2) Major coastal flooding 3) Risk for isolated tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yeah I think at this juncture anyone looking for or thinking we'll see widespread heavy rainfall is misguided. There will be some heavy rain...just not as widespread as some are thinking. At this juncture the greatest concern is 1) Winds and power outage potential 2) Major coastal flooding 3) Risk for isolated tornadoes To all 3 of those points, I think the greatest risks in New England are in western areas. Not saying we can't rule out a rogue spin up or rain band, I just see the majority of issues being over W NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: To all 3 of those points, I think the greatest risks in New England are in western areas. Not saying we can't rule out a rogue spin up or rain band, I just see the majority of issues being over W NE. certainly don't disagree with that. Outside of perhaps some gusty winds and showers with could give some a nice little drink you guys out in the east are going to be shafted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: To all 3 of those points, I think the greatest risks in New England are in western areas. Not saying we can't rule out a rogue spin up or rain band, I just see the majority of issues being over W NE. Wind especially Hartford south and east. Eastern Mass is out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 This situation that we're dealing with is why I am legit scared of a major hurricane impacting us. I mean think about it...our window of knowing like 100% certain that we will get nailed is like what...maybe 8-12 hours? Sure we can have an idea it will happen and make necessary preparations but there is still that uncertainty...by the time we really are certain it's too late to really act. It would be an absolute disaster, especially if you ever had to talk evacuations. How many people are really going to take something seriously when the main wording is "we still don't know"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Nah LLJ goes right over us. Those maps are terrible. Where it shows peak winds in Berks, they'll be inverted a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Nah LLJ goes right over us. Those maps are terrible. Where it shows peak winds in Berks, they'll be inverted a bit. ? Thats the CRV. Those are Euro maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: ? Thats the CRV. Those are Euro maps And we say time and time again the algorithms use awful calculations. Ryan said he has 30-40 inland and 40-55 on S coast. I could see some 60mph gusts too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It won't really transition much. Yeah... agreed - give 'im credit for trying, tho. Heh. but yeah no this is a very deep barotropic air mass... I bet the Bahama sounding over Logan at this point. In fact, I might have mentioned this the other day, that there were semblances in the runs for a "Bahama Blue" pattern ...and well, this is essentially it. Or at least it will be 24 hours from now. I have also opined in the ancient past how it never seems to be that a TC is actually around in the exit region of that jet down S but rats bid if we don't actually have that circumstance ...sort of. Usually, it's a lucky timing issue with a transient trough over WV and a retreating ridge the captures ... Carol and Hazel..etc Donna I think all were not really BB patterns but "got lucky" ?? I think 1938 might have been a late season BBer based on testimonials and accounts of a "...Week of sultry humid weather..." before hand but who knows. Anyway, probably it's just a matter of getting two rare phenomenon to land on the same date, ....like it's twice as rare. Oh if one is a dramatist they prefer it to be a category 3 hurricane and not one COVID coughing its way up the coast both too slow and two week and technically ... not even on the right trajectory to even remotely justify 30 f'n pages of coverage ... but, what's the alternative - right But with ...whatever form this thing has as it moves N, it will be anomalously embedded all quadrants inside a rather sub-tropical transport all the way up. The phase transition may be delayed over climo because of that. This is mostly going to be a failed momentum in the first place, then losing warm water as it fringes land. Even the Bite waters are nearing 80, ...albeit shallow, but really... That's a 'nother thing...I've often wondered if a Cat 4 ever turned the corner in these modern times ...while it is 80 F SST at buoy/station 44025 ... As a tremendous stroke of luck to civility I suppose, the climo for LI express is after Sept 5th ...when we've already shed 5 to 7 F off those shallow numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Eastern areas may get a nice pm/night tomorrow, dry with light breezes. Take 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And we say time and time again the algorithms use awful calculations. Ryan said he has 30-40 inland and 40-55 on S coast. I could see some 60mph gusts too. We have watched the Euro gust maps with these southerly event storms and they have performed pretty damn good. Those maps are not any different from what Ryan said. When you see Euro soundings like this you need to raise HWW pretty far inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And we say time and time again the algorithms use awful calculations. Ryan said he has 30-40 inland and 40-55 on S coast. I could see some 60mph gusts too. idk...this looks legit 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We have watched the Euro gust maps with these southerly event storms and they have performed pretty damn good. Those maps are not any different from what Ryan said. When you see Euro soundings like this you need to raise HWW pretty far inland. Agree. I think 50-60mph will be achieved all of CT with ease and you’ll get some 70 mph gusts in severe cells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 This storm looks like absolute ka-ka. I’d be surprised if there is much of any tropical wind core left by the time it reaches here. All gonna be hoping you get s LLJ max as it rapidly expands eastward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 I'm locking in 84 at LCI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Getting a little concerned about the tornado potential in CT tomorrow...models are spitting out quite a bit of CAPE...especially within the lowest 3km. NAM bufkit soundings showing >300 J of 3km CAPE and over 1000 J of 6km CAPE...those are quite high given the amount of shear. I'll also add this...we may see llvl lapse rates steep enough to where these winds can certainly overperform...especially with any convective elements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 F4 in BDL. 1979 all over again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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