dendrite Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Just now, ma blizzard said: don't look now but convection is trying to fire up again near the LLC Melting never fails. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Downgrade to TD at 11? Invest? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Downgrade to TD at 11? Invest? Take a break 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Every model gets you pretty good. Euro was like 2.5”. Sell all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 NHC: Quote "The last data received from a previous Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, along with recent satellite and radar imagery, indicate that Isaias has weakened to a tropical storm due to a combination of shear, dry air and interaction with Andros Island earlier today. The initial intensity of 60 kt is based on SFMR surface wind speeds of near 60 kt in the northeastern quadrant on the last flight. A new reconnaissance mission into the cyclone is currently ongoing and will provide new data concerning the Isaias' intensity." "A combination of Isaias moving over the warm Gulfstream waters during the convective maximum period and increasing frictional convergence due to land interaction with Florida should lead to an increase in deep convection near and over the center, as shown by simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF model. As a result, Isaias is forecast to regain hurricane status tonight, as shown by the HWRF and HMON model fields. By 36 hours and beyond, the global models are in good agreement that an approaching mid- to upper-level trough will increase southwesterly vertical wind shear, which should result in gradual weakening until Isais becomes an extratropical cyclone in about 96 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is closest to the HMON in 12 hours and closely follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus models after 36 hours." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sell all We have no need for models unless they show devastating damage. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 11 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Yikes Take a break? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Models, at least the Euro and UK have been pretty consistent in showing the heaviest rain NE-SW from the Worcester Hills down through the Connecticut River Valley down to NYC/NENJ. Obviously any track change will shift that axis of heaviest rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sell all Ha what changed from this morning for you? You were telling ORH/Will that making any determinations today was way too early... then like 2 hours later it's completely done and over with? I get the "post traumatic drought disorder" that's going on right now, but the UKMET, EURO and GFS lit the swath of heavy rain pretty much over you today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ha what changed from this morning for you? You were telling ORH/Will that making any determinations today was way too early... then like 2 hours later it's completely done and over with? I get the "post traumatic drought disorder" that's going on right now, but the UKMET, EURO and GFS lit the swath of heavy rain pretty much over you today. Group Texts from Scoots , Ryan and Gibbs. We done . When they all mail it in.. we end 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: ?? Read your texts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Not blown away obviously, but we'll see. If convection can continue to fire and it stays a little further off coast than forecast, youd have a positive bust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Read your texts My whole premise was if it stays intact. If not like it is now, peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 This thing has literally blown up in the last hour. Radar pressentation (while not the end all be all of organization) underwent a 180. Seems crazy that it could be possible, but I cant say for certain that LLC didn't tug 15 miles NNE under the deep convection that just exploded and line up with that ring of convection that looks like a developing eye wall. Sam Lillo was impressed via twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said: Take a break? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: This thing has literally blown up in the last hour. Radar pressentation (while not the end all be all of organization) underwent a 180. Seems crazy that it could be possible, but I cant say for certain that LLC didn't tug 15 miles NNE under the deep convection that just exploded and line up with that ring of convection that looks like a developing eye wall. Sam Lillo was impressed via twitter Dilf Tug? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 I've checked this cam out a few times today. Surf has really come up Ft Lauderdale Also look at some of those dews 78-79F! https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/lauderdalebythesea/?cam=windjammer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 58 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: This thing has literally blown up in the last hour. Radar pressentation (while not the end all be all of organization) underwent a 180. Seems crazy that it could be possible, but I cant say for certain that LLC didn't tug 15 miles NNE under the deep convection that just exploded and line up with that ring of convection that looks like a developing eye wall. Sam Lillo was impressed via twitter I miss Sam, His snowfall maps in the winter were very elongated and uplifting. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 Center looks like it’s trying to reform under the convection to its NE, only moving at 9mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 The heaviest rain shifted west on the 18z Euro just like the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Modfan2 said: Center looks like it’s trying to reform under the convention to its NE, only moving at 9mph Presidential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Presidential? Lol. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The heaviest rain shifted west on the 18z Euro just like the other models. Looking at the Euro there is a strip of rain through New England while Isaias is still way down the coast. Would this be considered a PRE and are models like the Euro able to pick up such an event? Euro ends at 12Z Wed but there is still more precip to come. Looks like 3-5" Western CN, West Central Mass into NH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: Looking at the Euro there is a strip of rain through New England while Isaias is still way down the coast. Would this be considered a PRE and are models like the Euro able to pick up such an event? Euro ends at 12Z Wed but there is still more precip to come. Looks like 3-5" Western CN, West Central Mass into NH It's a pretty solid pattern for a PRE based on the conceptual models. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 2, 2020 Author Share Posted August 2, 2020 Lol, at the forecasting in here, like I said earlier by tomorrow we will see what we have. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 2-4” with Lolis to 6? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 Para gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 If this stays east of Florida I think it can go into beast mode tomorrow.. seems like a wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: If this stays east of Florida I think it can go into beast mode tomorrow.. seems like a wait and see She's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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