CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: Will it be cloudy lol Tip will be posting about Bermuda blues and tilted cumulus clouds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: No need to change anything from the NHC. I don't think this is currently a hurricane based on recon, but it's also not a dissipating storm. We were in this same position yesterday. It was a naked swirl and then around 19z it began firing convection, closed out an eye about 3-4 hours later, and recon found a strengthening hurricane. The day before? It was a disorganized mess with a 400 mile wide wave axis tilted SSW to NNE and crossed DR/Haiti to become a category one hurricane. This is the nature of tropical. It's not linear and it's not always the spectacular RI to visually stunning type development we've seen the last few seasons. It's easy to lose sight of that. This storm in particular has seen substantial intensity swings. It looks absolutely horrible right now, and it will continue to struggle, but there's a lot of uncertainty left here, despite the current conditions. People get carried away due to short term intensity variations....Wednesday night, it was going to be a cat 3 at LF because it became a hurricane 12 hours ahead of forecast, regardless of high confidence impending shear. Now, it's going to dissipate because the shear is actually weakening it. This was actually more on FB than anyone here, but people need to learn that a slightly stronger initial intensity does not alter the universe and render a system impervious to the effect of shear. Any guidance showing a period of weakening was tossed because guidance was 10mph low and 10mb high at initialization.....weenie defense mechanisms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Where I disagree with NHC is that I do see a window for intensification on Monday assuming this doesn't bury itself in FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Quote me, too.....main threat is rain for sne. Yeah this wasn’t going to be much except for rain and that may not be much if it doesn’t reorganize. Not sure how that’s a melt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Drought stein wins again. This is over What give up on the Uk? Lol you pimped it for days and days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 12z euro starting to remove the rain threat from SNE lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 12z euro starting to remove the rain threat from SNE lol Tilted cumulus posts enroute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 2-4” We take 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What give up on the Uk? Lol you pimped it for days and days We done. We drinking. We move on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 It looks like maybe Josephine not too far behind Isaias for the NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tilted cumulus posts enroute. It’s amazing how when your’re in a drought the drought manifests itself. Sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 First outer bands coming ashore MIA/FLL Looking forward to a couple of inches of rain up here. 996/1000mb low coming up from the tropics should give some good rain to the west of the track. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Rich get richer.... this isn’t even worth following. I expect dry conditions in eastern NE 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We done. We drinking. We move on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 12z euro starting to remove the rain threat from SNE lol ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s amazing how when your’re in a drought the drought manifests itself. Sucks lol 2.5 on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ?? AEMATT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 As for DIT He just does not accept mediocrity well and we're losing the damage threat and anomalous type effects from the system, although there could still be heavy band of rain that sets up, especially in Western New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Wow - the official NHC forecast track hasn't shifted for us in 24 hours. Go look at forecast 14A (2PM Fri), and that path is almost the exactly the same as the path at 18A (2PM today). Sure the models are going to keep moving the jackpot of precip at every model run, but we're talking about swings of a couple of hundred miles based in minor variations each run. You blend them together and right now most of us are getting at least 2" of rain, with pockets of 4", and that's been pretty steady over the last 24 hours as well - and much of that is coming well ahead of the "eye" of the storm. Looks like we'll be getting a pretty good rainstorm, with the intensity of a moderate nor'easter for those that end up on the eastern side of the eye, if anyone ends up there. I'm sticking to that until something shows me otherwise. Obviously LF in Florida changes things, but that hasn't happened yet, and if it does, it's going to give us plenty of time to adjust the forecast. There was never a consistent signal that this was going to be a strong storm/hurricane up in SNE once we got into the timeframe where the tropical models could provide forecasts for our area... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 I'm a bit worried about flooding. Since I'm on the Cape I've been loading my sandbags for free at the beach, got a few stares. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 It’s going to depend how intact the circulation is with this. The real strong low level forcing is what would drive the FF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s amazing how when your’re in a drought the drought manifests itself. Sucks Every model gets you pretty good. Euro was like 2.5”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 This storm is toast. The curse of all storms with a high ratio of vowels to consonants in the name. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Just now, Hoth said: This storm is toast. The curse of all storms with a high ratio of vowels to consonants in the name. Got close to Florida and contracted covid....like everyone else the past few weeks. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: ?? Extremely confusing, ha. Models paint heavy rain swath right through SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 37 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Extremely confusing, ha. Models paint heavy rain swath right through SNE. It's basically reduced to a cfp now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Nice feeder band coming through right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 don't look now but convection is trying to fire up again near the LLC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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