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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020


Bostonseminole
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15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I was hoping for a Cat 1 up here 

Watch when they mention this on the news. People will be scared.

Its going to be inland for like 1,000 miles. :lol:

Unless that drastically changes, this is primarily a big rain threat. If it stays over water somehow, then that means further east landfall over the cape or something. 

Outside of some southern facing exposed beaches, nobody is even seeing minimal sustained TS winds up in NY and New England. 

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Okay,  he's naked.  So what should the NHC do?   Immediately change Hurricane Watch/Warnings to TS warnings?   I hate the cry Wolf stuff.  Even if Isaias refires convection I very much doubt hurricane conditions anyplace in Florida.   Still 1-3" for New England and a change the storm will get its act together somewhat but with a weaker storm a westerly track and more change inland over Florida vs over water.

Next.....

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that's also 20 mb shallower than the runs this time yesterday placing 960's low there by the UKMEATHEAD

this thing's had nothing but tribulations and hardships getting developed all along.  It'll probably do a Bob now and RI its way to Cat 3 just because I'm typing this...but, barring the kosmic dyldo having fun ...this is probably getting absorbed in the flow of 15 pages of imagnation -

you know .. it's interesting .. it seems that every model has been at least partially right, while none have been correct about the evolution of this system.  

the Euro has never really like this thing and has been reluctantly playing catch-up to even the consensus blend... And while it presently is still stronger - even as  an exposed wound - then those open wave Euro runs from a couple days ago, ...the fact that it is well short of other guidances, which had upon occasion had category 1 hurricanes, seems to give it some respect. 

so in contrast to that...the more developed variations were right to be less conservative - they just went way overboard.

 

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