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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020


Bostonseminole
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9 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You wonder if we may pull a 55 type year with a Connie and Diane. What the first doesn’t take down, the second does kind of thing 

This is more plausible than 1938 walking through the door. What is the last CAT 2 or 3 storm to hit New England?

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11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You wonder if we may pull a 55 type year with a Connie and Diane. What the first doesn’t take down, the second does kind of thing 

Not all that much blew down from those storms.  I'd guess than 98% of damage was from the epic flooding.  BDL had 21.3" RA that August, 4" from Connie and over 14" from Diane less than a week later.  Farther NW, Norfolk had 9" from Connie and nearly 13" from Diane.

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12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Many mets and folks here have been saying a 38 type cane is coming this fall. Let’s do it!

 

12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You wonder if we may pull a 55 type year with a Connie and Diane. What the first doesn’t take down, the second does kind of thing 

Why not both?

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Mm.. wonder how these enhanced probability calls for a '38 type redux are rooted... 

I don't see it based upon super-synoptic hemispheric trends ... not even close.  

We have a central/mid-latitude CONUS ridge that keeps burgeoning and then sort of doing a hemispheric-scaled Kelvin-Hemholtz tumble-over... evidenced in the counter-balanced tendency to dive the wind field through the Martimes. 

Proobably need to review a crucial conceptual point about entities in the atmosphere?   ... they move with the wind ... ;) 

What about that above seasonality persistence sends a category 3 cane up abeam the EC headed for deforestation of VT - 

Now, ... it's not IMpossible to have an anomaly relative to the persistence above ...set up just in time... Shit happens... But, it seems the longitudinal flow/progressivity in the means is both trend, and has planetary super-synoptic scale motivators for being that way... Namely, the expanded HC seems to be expressing this summer... It is making for increased ambient velocities at mid levels and that doesn't really physically support meridian flow structures - like placing a negative hydrostatic anomaly over WV and sucking a cane up toward or into the NY Bite... Just in short, a ridge axis 90 to 80W that is sharply ablating from the NW along and E of 70  ... even though the GFS does so too much... in a lesser variation of the GFS ...still deflects and hooks seaward N of the Del Marva

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25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Probably a broad LLC for 91L but easterly shear looks like an issue right now. Given how far along it apparently is right now it may be an overperformer candidate. We’ll see. The Gulf is warm to say the least and the western Gulf has a nice area of TCHP. 

recon incoming

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Just looking to get an idea of what a typical 500 pattern might look like for a SNE cane if there is such a thing?  I'm catching on what to look for in the winter blocking, trough position etc...I'm curious how does this translate in to a tropical sense at 500 look like for some of the past storms that have effected SNE?  Thanks!

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18 minutes ago, ScituateWX said:

Just looking to get an idea of what a typical 500 pattern might look like for a SNE cane if there is such a thing?  I'm catching on what to look for in the winter blocking, trough position etc...I'm curious how does this translate in to a tropical sense at 500 look like for some of the past storms that have effected SNE?  Thanks!

https://www.ryanhanrahan.com/new-england-hurricane-setups/

 

 

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Nah, TD 8 should continue a westward heading under the ridge. Euro wants to break off some additional vorticity in the Gulf in a few days and drive it off the east coast. Doesn’t seem to be worth any time really. 

That wave behind Gonzalo is one to watch however in the long term as we move past this suppressive phase in the basin. 

Gonzo looks like it might not make it.. 

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