Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Gonna be some surprised mets and folks in SNE based on some of the posts. Nothing like spiking the ball early. Haven’t we learned? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 50 on the coast with leaves on trees is not a usual summer day. Pretty much all TS strength storms are LOL inland Mass Meh...dime a dozen in the other 3 seasons. I guess southerly 50mph on the coast in summer could cause a bit of damage. But the rain threat is 99% of this... 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gonna be some surprised mets and folks in SNE based on some of the posts. Nothing like spiking the ball early. Haven’t we learned? You haven’t been through many New England TCs, have you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Some apparently aren't capable of learning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Meh...dime a dozen in the other 3 seasons. I guess southerly 50mph on the coast in summer could cause a bit of damage. But the rain threat is 99% of this... You haven’t been through many New England TCs, have you? Little early to express 100% confidence no issues with wind damage . This isn’t an easy winter storm to predict. My advice is to wait until Monday until you write something off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Boy you look at this thing on IR and go "oh nice thunderstorm complex". You'd have no clue that this is a cane. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Little early to express 100% confidence no issues with wind damage . This isn’t an easy winter storm to predict. My advice is to wait until Monday until you write something off I didn’t totally write it off. But as of now, it’s at the bottom of the list. There arent many scenarios where this is even a strong TS at landfall. The scenarios where the location is central/western CT have the storm tracking over the interior of the I-95 corridor so you don’t have any wind core left. Stronger scenarios are more plausible out east toward the cape if this stays more offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I didn’t totally write it off. But as of now, it’s at the bottom of the list. There arent many scenarios where this is even a strong TS at landfall. The scenarios where the location is central/western CT have the storm tracking over the interior of the I-95 corridor so you don’t have any wind core left. Stronger scenarios are more plausible out east toward the cape if this stays more offshore. You do if it’s non tropical aka UKMET . There’s also an insanely powerful LLJ. These things very often have tricks up their sleeves.. see David 1979. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 My preference not that it matters would be off the NJ coast to the BM, good rains, no wind and bombing surf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You do if it’s non tropical aka UKMET . There’s also an insanely powerful LLJ. These things very often have tricks up their sleeves.. see Danny 1979 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 We take. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: We take. Yep, biggest threat along and NW of track. Wind yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yep, biggest threat along and NW of track. Wind yawn. Quoted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What can happen is a barotrophic enhancement as it transitions to extratropical. All these posts this morning are pretty menial. I mean it is a weak TS but with lots of rain and coastal wind its not your everyday summer rain storm as depicted today anyway. I’m not sure how strong Irene was (grant it a different track) but there was tree damage in Eastern CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Hi Res Euro precip amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Quoted Post above your bed....I consider 50 yawn. Maybe someone gets a rogue gust to 60? Our October wind events the last few years will LOL to Isis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Post above your bed....I consider 50 yawn. Maybe someone gets a rogue gust to 60? Our October wind events the last few years will LOL to Isis. Comparable to strong winter frontal passages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hi Res Euro precip amounts Boring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: I’m not sure how strong Irene was (grant it a different track) but there was tree damage in Eastern CT Much much stronger. Those outer bands gave us 70 plus mph gusts leading to week plus of no power. Irene maintained its integrity up until NYC. Different animal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Isaias looks to be on life support right now. I know these storm can rise from the dead but there are so many factors against that happening. Dry air and wind shear is just knocking the hell out of his core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Post above your bed....I consider 50 yawn. Maybe someone gets a rogue gust to 60? Our October wind events the last few years will LOL to Isis. Izzy's story is yet tbd as models have changed daily as well as its impacts. Seeing upstream what I see is perhaps more of a typical parabolic swing off the coast which would mean just a great rain storm enhanced by barotrophic influences 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hi Res Euro precip amounts There is the region wide 3-6" storm that we need....Drought buster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Izzy's story is yet tbd as models have changed daily as well as its impacts. Seeing upstream what I see is perhaps more of a typical parabolic swing off the coast which would mean just a great rain storm enhanced by barotrophic influences I'll take the rain, but I don't think this is going near Cape or offshore. Probably into western CT and central MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Jog west under the COD, click for full loop 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 That's old. The center is on the NE side of Andros island now. Almost exposed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I'll take the rain, but I don't think this is going near Cape or offshore. Probably into western CT and central MA. if thats true you probably won't see much rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: That's old. The center is on the NE side of Andros island now. Almost exposed. click the radar dude 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: if thats true you probably won't see much rain I don't think I will. Hopefully 1-2". Maybe a TOR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 1, 2020 Author Share Posted August 1, 2020 I think we need to wait and see how it goes next 24hrs.. I’m just hoping for rain and some wind to break this boring stretch of weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 It's getting ripped apart. Fugly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It's getting ripped apart. Fugly. I was hoping for a Cat 1 up here Watch when they mention this on the news. People will be scared. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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