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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020


Bostonseminole
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I really like the Euro track since it gets me into the heavy rain as the storm moves through New England.  A good 2-4" soak.  Thankfully there seems to be enough dry air and wind shear to keep Isaias from becoming something much stronger as a track like this would not be good for the east coast.  

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh...it's one of those deals where if it stays over water it probably is a tad stronger up this way... but if it moves over land, the models will hold on to too much structure up the coast.

Think there is an extratropical boost with a strong rear jet

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Trying to look super close at the computer (so close I hit my nose on the screen) but satellite presentation really seems to be improving with an increase in convection. I like to call hot towers popcorn towers v/c they pop like popcorn 

These pop too right out of the tip...

Bun.jpg

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Trying to look super close at the computer (so close I hit my nose on the screen) but satellite presentation really seems to be improving with an increase in convection. I like to call hot towers popcorn towers v/c they pop like popcorn 

It doesn't look terrible. Obviously sheared, but I frankly expected it to look worse today.

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13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I just want that 3-4” of rain. I won’t lose sleep over missing out on a 35mph gust.

Here here

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Don’t people get it? Most of us here love extremes. If it’s going to rain... flood .. if it’s going to be windy,, damage... etc etc. 

Someone should call your home owners insurance. lol

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Just now, Hoth said:

It doesn't look terrible. Obviously sheared, but I frankly expected it to look worse today.

It's done a relatively good job fighting the shear. I think it looks much better than it did this morning. We'll see how much these flare ups of convection help too...especially moving into the overnight when convection typically seems to really increase. Looks like even some cloud tops now colder than -90C...impressive

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's done a relatively good job fighting the shear. I think it looks much better than it did this morning. We'll see how much these flare ups of convection help too...especially moving into the overnight when convection typically seems to really increase. Looks like even some cloud tops now colder than -90C...impressive

Yes, given where we are diurnally, I'm impressed by how cold the tops are. Tonight will be interesting.

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22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That’s fine. Although 2hrs would be even better. 

Had 3.5" in 2 hours in NNJ from "Doria", August 1971.  Storm total was 5.1" and with the previous day's PRE dumping 3.8" we had nearly 9" in about 20 hours.  Things had been quite dry so flooding was surprisingly modest.

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8 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Odds are forever in his favor on NBD here.  It takes a precise track to make TCs meaningful in New England.  Let's stick to model analysis and lay off calling people out.

Exactly. Couldn't have said it any better.  Everything has to be practically perfect for a TC of at least min hurricane intensity to make landfall on LI or the New England coast.  One thing is off (i.e. not moving fast enough, trof to W not sharp enough, first landfall down the coast, etc) it greatly reduces the overall threat and impact, at least from a wind and surge point.  Rainfall can still be high impact, but you don't need a hurricane for that anywhere.  It also helps if the hurricane is intense off the SEUS coast to begin with.

It's been 29 years since the last hurricane made landfall on LI or the New England coast, by far the longest period on record going back to 1851.  This shows how hard it can be during certain cycles/patterns.  Of course, between 1938 and 1960, we got 5 hurricanes, all stronger at landfall than any of the 4 hurricanes the area has had since 1960.  Feast or famine it seems!

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