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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020


Bostonseminole
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I agree in principle that it definitely won’t ever be a major impact for this region if/and/or it moves slowly or has prolonged land interaction. We’d “want” this screaming up the coast at least as a cat 3 way before our latitude to include this with the biggies here 

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1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I agree in principle that it definitely won’t ever be a major impact for this region if/and/or it moves slowly or has prolonged land interaction. We’d “want” this screaming up the coast at least as a cat 3 way before our latitude to include this with the biggies here 

Biggest key is basically where this stands when it's around the latitude of NC/SC and where the eye is. If it's off the coast and in positioning for strengthening...well then we gotta start thinking this is going to be a big hit. 

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2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

NHC revised intensity forecast. Only expected to be cat 1

Model Intensity Guidance for the most part does not go above category 1...still though, given the area this is in I would not dismiss anything at this juncture. These next 24-hours are huge. I mean any sort of slight trend towards favorable conditions and this could take off in a heart beat...and we've seen that happen numerous times within this region. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Model Intensity Guidance for the most part does not go above category 1...still though, given the area this is in I would not dismiss anything at this juncture. These next 24-hours are huge. I mean any sort of slight trend towards favorable conditions and this could take off in a heart beat...and we've seen that happen numerous times within this region. 

Especially for a tight little system.

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Just now, Hoth said:

Especially for a tight little system.

Yes. This is in dangerous territory...discounting any type of solution or letting guard down just is not a good idea. Even though ensembles seem to have a rather solid agreement on what occurs that still needs to be taken with caution...only b/c the evolution over the next 24...even 48 hours holds the key. Too my untrained eye there does seem to be some better organization transpiring over the past few hours. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Euro is a pretty good storm. Very heavy rain west of like ORH-HVN or so. Stronger winds east of there.

I wonder if there is an interaction at play with the s/w over the Great Lakes area...storm really seems to strengthen up around NJ...also looks like it may even keep the center perhaps a bit offshore...though that could be resolution driven?

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