WinterWolf Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 52 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: I can't believe how fast everyone here is ready to move on from this. Just because we've been hurt so many times in the past by tropical whiffs doesn't mean that all of them will. Hell, the GFS 6z run just caved a little further with the west movement up North (though still a NS storm with an escape route). 6 days out, plenty can change You gotta play the odds...99% of the time it’s a whiff. This is no different, even if the track is very anomalous like it’s showing. And that track is much closer to Atlantic Canada, which modeling has shifted back to this morning. Don’t waste anymore time hoping...like Scott said he’s gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 6z GEFS starting to trend more with the hook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: 6z GEFS starting to trend more with the hook Ya, for NS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 He gone, move on folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He gone, move on folks. Relax, he'll come back. Always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Looking at the 0z Euro now, the SW trend of the cutoff definitely stopped and reversed a bit. Not what those in search of a devastating blow want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Just now, Hoth said: Looking at the 0z Euro now, the SW trend of the cutoff definitely stopped and reversed a bit. Not what those in search of a devastating blow want to see. Euro is just too far W with many tropicals this season for whatever reason. Of course earlier GFS runs may have been too far east if this does go near NS...but definitely a bias in the euro this year. Even out in the WPAC too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 hour ago, tiger_deF said: I can't believe how fast everyone here is ready to move on from this. Just because we've been hurt so many times in the past by tropical whiffs doesn't mean that all of them will. Hell, the GFS 6z run just caved a little further with the west movement up North (though still a NS storm with an escape route). 6 days out, plenty can change I assume you are pretty young. Most here have seen this play hundreds of times. It would take a monster block to send this back this far west as an ET storm or a strong cutoff upper air low capturing this. It will bend but all indicators are this is not in the cards for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Were some actually thinking Teddy was/is a legit threat to the populated areas of New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Concern level rising. Models are starting to get that locked and loaded look. Not good. Hoping for a whiff. Nick is due for one...lol #NovaScotiaStrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I assume you are pretty young. Most here have seen this play hundreds of times. It would take a monster block to send this back this far west as an ET storm or a strong cutoff upper air low capturing this. It will bend but all indicators are this is not in the cards for SNE. Would have to be a Scooter level banana hammock high arcing around the eastern side of the storm with it weakening on the west side. Our Canadian Maritime members will need to start taking precautions for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 That should be the end of that fantasy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 34 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Were some actually thinking Teddy was/is a legit threat to the populated areas of New England? Yes and others throughout the weather world although the risk was low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 21 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: That should be the end of that fantasy. . It would have been awesome to see it happen but you really need alot of blocking and a big trough to phase with for this storm to hook back west. The low is also way too far out in the Atlantic. I will keep tracking it but not feeling it anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: 6z GEFS starting to trend more with the hook Webber mentioned that this morning 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: He gone, move on folks. Not yet We know how these models have been with the tropics. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 There are no models threatening NE. Heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Whats wrong with the Euro and EPS? Garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Yeah it's not threatening us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it's not threatening us. I hope it hits just to pull this up.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: I hope it hits just to pull this up.. He'd be thrilled to. But I agree with him. Now that models shifted back east some this morning...this is not a NE storm at all. Was fun to fantasize and speculate for a day/few hours. But I wouldn't be hoping this comes back west "Enough." We had our brush with tropical back on August 5th....that should do it for another decade or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I hope it hits just to pull this up.. Same here, but I am confident. LOL. There is a reason why it's never really happened in modern recorded time. Not from that angle. If that cutoff were 500miles WSW...I'd be weenie deep. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is just too far W with many tropicals this season for whatever reason. Of course earlier GFS runs may have been too far east if this does go near NS...but definitely a bias in the euro this year. Even out in the WPAC too. Euro always has a slight SW bias with tropicals. It just seems more enhanced this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Hazey said: Concern level rising. Models are starting to get that locked and loaded look. Not good. Hoping for a whiff. Nick is due for one...lol #NovaScotiaStrong We concern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Same here, but I am confident. LOL. There is a reason why it's never really happened in modern recorded time. Not from that angle. If that cutoff were 500miles WSW...I'd be weenie deep. 6z EPS. We watch! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: He'd be thrilled to. But I agree with him. Now that models shifted back east some this morning...this is not a NE storm at all. Was fun to fantasize and speculate for a day/few hours. But I wouldn't be hoping this comes back west "Enough." We had our brush with tropical back on August 5th....that should do it for another decade or so. We still have October =) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 I'd give the effort for Sally an A. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/hurricane-sally-verification.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 6z EPS. We watch! We dodge! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Nothing's impossible and it is 2020 but this is a dose of reality. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: Nothing's impossible and it is 2020 but this is a dose of reality. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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