SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Also, this:

 

Luckily would take a miracle for Teddy Bruski to intensify on LF

[CoastalWx]

No chance at Teddy.

[dryslot]

We could use the rain if it ended up over Eastern Maine, Not at all optimistic for this one to be the case but if i was in NS, I would pay attention.

[rimetree]

Might have to chase up at camp in Lakeville if that Euro solution actually materialized.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

No chance at Teddy.

I wouldnt say that. We all know how  horrible the modles have been  with the tropics this season. Gfs made another bump  west.

We track

[MJO812]

Eps is intriguing 

Keeps shifting  west

[Chrisrotary12]

Is it wrong that I'm now rooting for this thing to screw all of you who want a huge cane and have it landfall in Lubec?

[Bostonseminole]

Not sure what to think of this, interested in comments from METS

 

[correnjim1]

i won't hold my breath

[Cyclone-68]

I’m still purple from Eduardo 

[TheBudMan]

This will hit NE MA (of course) NH and ME.   Tolland CT will report partly cloudy skies and breeze conditions during landfall 

[CoastalWx]

48 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I wouldnt say that. We all know how  horrible the modles have been  with the tropics this season. Gfs made another bump  west.

We track

That would be so difficult to do. I’m not saying NE winds and a few showers...that is possible. I mean full on beast storm here. Even for Nova Scotia that isn’t easy to do, but much higher chance there. You’d need a huge cutoff and full on block. I’m not sure that’s enough to bring it literally due west for hundreds of miles. 

[Cyclone-68]

I guess there’s a reason(s)why (best to my knowledge) that we’ve never had a hurricane strike in this particular way at this latitude. 

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I guess there’s a reason(s)why (best to my knowledge) that we’ve never had a hurricane strike in this particular way at this latitude. 

Those retrograding noreasters are rare enough in Winter, where we can have ample blocking. Threading the needle amplified in September. 

[OSUmetstud]

43 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Not sure what to think of this, interested in comments from METS

 

So the sun heats up the particulates in the lower and middle atmosphere leading to unforeseen sensible heating that raises 500mb heights? 

Idk, seems a little far fetched. 

Smoke afaik results in a net cooling effect overall as it blocks incoming shortwave radiation from the sun, but does not stop earth's longwave radiation from escaping at night. 

[Cyclone-68]

8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Those retrograding noreasters are rare enough in Winter, where we can have ample blocking. Threading the needle amplified in September. 

Very true we’ve had instances in the winter and we all know how rare those are. I’m not even sure how that translates to a tropical entity. Having said that I’m buying some thread and needles at the store later on 

[tiger_deF]

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I couldn't agree more. We'd be talking about an all-timer of a pattern, all-time timing, and an exceptionally strong warm core storm at this latitude to get a significant event here. I asked yesterday but I think I know the answer: I don't think there's a single instance in recorded history of a hurricane getting this far north and hooking a left into the coast. 

A NNW heading into the US/Canada border? Hard as heck, but doable. Northerly or NNE heading into Nova Scotia? That's happened before I'm sure. Hard left into Ray's backyard? Ehh.. 

Yeah, the pattern that would produce a serious storm up here is like a meteorological needle in a haystack. That being said, there is definitely potential for conditions that would be conducive to a pull west provided everything comes together, and I think that we should be tracking this until the models (especially the EPS) move back east. In addition, Teddy is forecasted to be an enormous and powerful storm, especially once it interacts with the trough, so if for some ungodly reason a NE situation did verify, it would likely be serious.

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

So the sun heats up the particulates in the lower and middle atmosphere leading to unforeseen sensible heating that raises 500mb heights? 

Idk, seems a little far fetched. 

Smoke afaik results in a net cooling effect overall as it blocks incoming shortwave radiation from the sun, but does not stop earth's longwave radiation from escaping at night. 

They say it warms the mid and upper trop but I agree....I think it’s a bit of a stretch.

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

They say it warms the mid and upper trop but I agree....I think it’s a bit of a stretch.

hmm, alright. Well radiation math isn't my strong suite lol. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, rimetree said:

Might have to chase up at camp in Lakeville if that Euro solution actually materialized.

Keg Lake?
I'd rather not see that Euro run with the 973 mb Cat 2 coming ashore in Machias.  We'd be facing tens of thousands of cords flattened, and probably unmarketable because private lands would have 20 times as much to salvage.

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Keg Lake?
I'd rather not see that Euro run with the 973 mb Cat 2 coming ashore in Machias.  We'd be facing tens of thousands of cords flattened, and probably unmarketable because private lands would have 20 times as much to salvage.

I would assume by that point it is undergoing ET transition which could exacerbate things.

[Typhoon Tip]

37 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

So the sun heats up the particulates in the lower and middle atmosphere leading to unforeseen sensible heating that raises 500mb heights? 

Idk, seems a little far fetched. 

Smoke afaik results in a net cooling effect overall as it blocks incoming shortwave radiation from the sun, but does not stop earth's longwave radiation from escaping at night. 

Mm... sounds "science fiction-y" doesn't it.. 

Pollution Meteorology is a course we were required to take as undergrads ...but that by no means makes us experts in that limb of atmospheric science, no.  However, the way I understood: atmospheric particulates typically block incoming shortwave IR, and that "cuts the fuel" in the cycle - so to speak. The black body physics requires absorption, and then re-radiation in longer infrared ...that which is 'absorbed' by the atmosphere and so on.

The particulate surplus suspension in the higher atmosphere ... mm maybe that can complete that as a closed circuitry aloft?  I mean, smoke is really micron or smaller- scaled solid aerosols... so, they have to absorb - but that's part of the suspension of disbelief in the sci-fi.  Because?  the reality is that would be magnificently smaller in dimensional physics compared to the whole Earth and its total black-body physics of SW --> Infrared EM/ energy transference. 

Plus, the atmosphere is in motion.  Any local effects that smoke plume has would be whisked away and absorbed into the large hemispheric eddy ... again, orders of magnitude smaller and thus it doesn't seem very significant off the bat. If anything... the smoke would tend to completely homogenize, ...world over in the x-y-z coordinate atmosphere. And then some many months later the global temperature my show an ephemeral decline..  Think Mt Pinatubo, 1992 -1995 ..etc. Even so, that is also not necessarily instructive on where the R-wave distribution takes place, either - which is what he's suggesting that smoke plume is in situ capable of doing?  that's not how things work..

Sounds like another socio-technological scenario where too much information access at both ends is fomenting faux understanding.

Op ed: People tend to stop at the threshold of plausibility and don't analyze further - because they either can't/ don't possess the mental wherewithal, or...don't care and have no ethics and it's fun. One or the other... real informatics and truism is are ever more so getting obscured by the din of fun drama, greed motivations ... or motivations of special interest groups - all of which is unprincipled.  It's a catch-22 of technology vs evolution ...where the evolution that gave us the ability to invent the technology wherewithal, will inexorably lead to its extinction - and there you go ... believing our way off a cliff, because we are too caught up in the specter of the cinema to hear the Doomsday clock.

thanks for playing humanity's time of the planet...

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

hmm, alright. Well radiation math isn't my strong suite lol. 

Same here lol. It was in a paper I read. 

[crossbowftw3]

And with that said, if by some astrological odds Teddy gets hooked into NE/Atlantic Canada the most direct impacts would likely be confined there, with most west of inland Massachusetts probably not seeing much impact...even still gusty winds seem probable knowing the likely ET transition Teddy will undergo by the time it comes ashore at cat 2 equivalent. And marine impacts as well, of course.

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

And with that said, if by some astrological odds Teddy gets hooked into NE/Atlantic Canada the most direct impacts would likely be confined there, with most west of inland Massachusetts probably not seeing much impact...even still gusty winds seem probable knowing the likely ET transition Teddy will undergo by the time it comes ashore at cat 2 equivalent. And marine impacts as well, of course.

You know it's funny ... that ICON model offered up a similar cinema of that whole relay ... yesterday's 12z and looking at the 00z ( and excuse if anyone's already mentioned this) it spared New England but repeated a similar notion by grabbing ahold of a full-bird Cat 2 'cane ...just fisting into NS instead.  

The only difference between the chastised and humiliated name calling of a dejected ICON that's going to grow up to become a serial killer, and the Euro ( CEO of a fortune 500 company) is a popularity scheme that gives the latter better self-esteem - we are just playground bullies ... as adults, huh ( digress...). But either is still a sociopath.  

Lol, truth be told, the GGEM has flirted with that sort of rare synoptic fusing thing lately too...  But, positioning all physics in space and time is a very delicate precision by models that are too susceptible to chaos factoring - even in the Euro's touted 4-D variable smoothing system that is sort-a like supposed to chip away spontaneity of complex fluid mechanics ( chaos) thus leaving an expose of truth.  It works ... sort of. 

Seriously, the fact that there are GGEM and ICON and Euro solutions that share in that genetics probably is more telling than who is getting what impact at this particular time range. We are still talking D5 to execute all that delicate handling, and that's outside the wheelhouse of even the Euro.  

[OSUmetstud]

If the cut off continues, it must just fill south of the ridge and turn into shit and then get kicked out gradually. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Some of the modeling is sort of a 50% redux of Harvey for the Bend area/coastal TX.  I'd give it > 50% too, only that the upgraded ( recently..) invest in the vicinity down there is presently modeled to stay just off shore.. But, that could easily by vagarious chance end up a deeper system partially eclipsing the coast again - 

I have a hypothesis for an advanced sort of FEMA model...  Basically, it's grid is populated by a facsimile-assumption that is already at a developed state?

For example, modulate the D5 modeled complexion, and use that as an initial assumption - right there at the edge where chaos seems to hockey -stick error in guidance.  Assume more development has occurred out 'then', and initialize and run the model... so it's coverage temporality would be D5 to 10 ... Have said initialization populated with a Category III hurricane - not just some modeled zygote circulation that is trying to gain pressure contours. 

The impetus here is that above some sort of momentum threshold, the models tend to change/morph their handling too much. 

The reason why I think that would be a hoot .. beyond just being a geeks paradise ... is because these models seem to not do very well, UNTIL an object is actually initialized in the grids they are run off of.. 

The Euro, for all recent peregrinations asides ..is still an outstanding achievement in the state-of-the-art of weather forecasting technology - but...realistically... ? not so much in the tropics.  But, I can see that as a conditional distinction.  If the tropical cyclone is deep in the troposhere and is mechanically "loud" in the initialization, the model doesn't do nearly as badly as it does when it's trying to modulate the arena from a mere TW to a Depression ... TS ... It just has trouble seeing the genesis' some times.  Other times, it seems to go over board - although rare in this latter sense.  

Anyway, all the models tend to more track and structural intensity errors more so in the early phases of TC gestation.   I think it would interesting to evolve a model that assumes a structure and presentation. 

[dryslot]

49 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

I would assume by that point it is undergoing ET transition which could exacerbate things.

It would exacerbate things as they transition they usually grow in size, West of the track would have some wind but more in the way of rainfall.

[MJO812]

Gfs coming in more west

[Nova737]

Providence is “over due” (i use this term lightly) for a direct hit from a hurricane. I wonder if Teddy will be the one to finally hit it.