BrianW Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 26 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: 937mb. Port Arthur is going to take a beating. Wonder if heating oil is produced there? Maybe time to quickly fill up the oil tanks before prices go up the next few days?? I was just looking at the aerial view of Port Arthur. The amount of chemical/oil industry there is eye opening. The size of the Valero refinery is incredible. Its looks to be over 2 miles wide. Are these places designed for a direct hit? If not the environmental impact is going to be huge. There is a huge BASF chemical plant just the North as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 I took these while working recovery in the Pan Handle; we were setting up in the Mexico Beach Public Works yard, 3 blocks from the beach and the water line was 7ft in their garage bays. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 7:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 Location: 28.4°N 92.9°W Moving: NNW at 15 mph Min pressure: 940 mb Max sustained: 150 mph 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 137 knots gives you your 157 cat 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 7:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 Location: 28.4°N 92.9°W Moving: NNW at 15 mph Min pressure: 940 mb Max sustained: 150 mph Cat 5 at landfall may be probability and not a possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Just now, MarkO said: Cat 5 at landfall may be a probably and not a possibility Whether it gets labeled a Cat 5 or not, One would assume its going to be at a 5 by landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: Whether it gets labeled a Cat 5 or not, One would assume its going to be at a 5 by landfall. Won't matter now, surge is set 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 I doubt a 5 landfall, but not impossible. Either way, awful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Won't matter now, surge is set 6 mph more wont matter, This is as bad as it can get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Whether it gets labeled a Cat 5 or not, One would assume its going to be at a 5 by landfall. Candidate for reanalysis upgrade ex post facto at the very least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Won't matter now, surge is set Interested to see if it reaches the media “meet up” spot I saw in Lake Charles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 This rapid intensification makes sense. Good outflow, low shear, decent forward motion and very warm SST's (Harvey mentioned 85F). Even if it's churning up, it's still much warmer than other tropical areas. That shelf is only a couple hundred feet deep. Storm surge is going to go way the hell inland. 25-30 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Won't matter now, surge is set This is probably the most important point. It's probably going to need to do it soon if it's going to reach Cat 5, because the deep core convection is starting to interact with land and shear is increasing on the west side. They've got flights in there until landfall though, so we should know with a fair amount of certainty if it does or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: This is probably the most important point. It's probably going to need to do it soon if it's going to reach Cat 5, because the deep core convection is starting to interact with land and shear is increasing on the west side. They've got flights in there until landfall though, so we should know with a fair amount of certainty if it does or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 If this does officially reach a Cat 5 and landfall as a Cat 5 it would be the 6th in US history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=2841848646049607&ref=watch_permalink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 5th in History. and those pictures of Margret are Incredible! It was decided to be a 5 Post storm. This could be the same situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 932 and this at LF, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 LCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: LCH Par 4? On the green in 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 33 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Par 4? On the green in 2? Lol, overshot the green 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 That's gonna leave a mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 According to Facebook I guess it’ll be years before they can replace that radar FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 No thanks. KLCH 270653Z AUTO 11085G115KT 1/4SM FG VV006 25/ A2831 RMK AO2 PK WND 100116/0642 RAEMM PRESFR SLP594 P0013 T0250 PWINO $= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: No thanks. KLCH 270653Z AUTO 11085G115KT 1/4SM FG VV006 25/ A2831 RMK AO2 PK WND 100116/0642 RAEMM PRESFR SLP594 P0013 T0250 PWINO $= crave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 23 hours ago, OceanStWx said: In fairness, the "unsurvivable" is coming directly from the NHC. You can argue whether that's hype or not, but it's not the result of media blowing it out of proportion. I would say it's a pretty small list of NWS offices this vulnerable to storm surge. Doesn't matter where the word came from, but the fact that it came from a weather office makes it worse. Saying something is "unsurvviable " is dishonest, over the top and indeed hyperbole. ...Unless I misread the death toll. This is the kind of language Kevin would use (In jest), and people here would be ripping him to shreds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 4 hours ago, Cold Miser said: Doesn't matter where the word came from, but the fact that it came from a weather office makes it worse. Saying something is "unsurvviable " is dishonest, over the top and indeed hyperbole. ...Unless I misread the death toll. This is the kind of language Kevin would use (In jest), and people here would be ripping him to shreds. Meh, let's let the verification process play out before it's called a total bust. 15 foot surge a few miles west indeed may have been an entirely different story and death toll, but it looks like it largely hit unpopulated swamp evolved to absorb that kind of surge. But that type of storm surge is indeed nearly impossible to ride out. I'm really not bent out of shape about the wording, I have more issues with how we do surge forecasting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 If only the 6z GFS went out another 24 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 13 hours ago, Cold Miser said: Doesn't matter where the word came from, but the fact that it came from a weather office makes it worse. Saying something is "unsurvviable " is dishonest, over the top and indeed hyperbole. ...Unless I misread the death toll. This is the kind of language Kevin would use (In jest), and people here would be ripping him to shreds. There was a 17' storm surge recorded to the east. Lake Charles is very lucky. The wording was appropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Man what a pattern in Sept to get a biggie right up into SNE. Can’t ask for more and the storms are lining up. LFG! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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