Dan76 Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 52 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Roll w the 12z hmon 952 into Miami 945 If my eyes don't deceive me ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Not a Kevin type hype post but I am very uneasy this year. Not liking this at all. The Bahamas is where we watch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 10 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Not a Kevin type hype post but I am very uneasy this year. Not liking this at all. The Bahamas is where we watch. Man have you been on the hype train for canes. Riding the hype and night train. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man have you been on the hype train for canes. Riding the hype and night train. That's such a weird graphic. SSTs are one factor, as atmospheric conditions trump SSTs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man have you been on the hype train for canes. Riding the hype and night train. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: That is awesome. Where in the sam hell did you find that? I’m saving that one for future use 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 LOL, "now that's a lot of damage!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 That guy seems stable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL, "now that's a lot of damage!" That last part when he fades in and out is priceless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That last part when he fades in and out is priceless I just want the close up with that sentence. I'm cracking up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 I'm so childish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Need more damage? Let me know' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Just go to 24 seconds. The laugh and the close up..... "now that's a lot of damage!" I have no idea why I'm laughing so hard. I'm losing it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: That's such a weird graphic. SSTs are one factor, as atmospheric conditions trump SSTs. Yeah that wind max product, it's a bit of a wonder - I don't wanna call that dubious - we don't know what science is used - but it does seem to "air" on the side of assumptive when considering that wind is mechanics. SSTs, while being integrable in the total 'machinery' of a TC , they are only partial in that total mechanics of wind response. If I were a destruction zealot enthusiast ... eh hm, I'd take an 81 F SST under a superb 200 mb divergency in all radial directions (even augmented by a near-by non-obtrusive TUTT sucking an exhaust channel like a supermassive black hole giving the lower troposphere a wedgie!) while also there is zero mid depth chimney shear ...over any TC just because it's passing over 87F SSTS if in this latter example the TC were fighting hostile deep layer fluid mechanics. In its defense... there may be a product description/disclaimer not seen there - there's that. But it may just be that because the top product's (SST) beset by the lower panel, might be inciting our assumption that the bottom is somehow instrumentally/or conductively based upon SSTS. This is the problem with pulling products that look charismatic without providing any explanation from their sources. ...Especially true on the web where ebullience and enthusiasm tends people to seek and post persuasively... It may also just be bad marketing for that product set to have them side by side, too. Assuming for a moment that stuff is accountable ... that wind max profiling up the MA into NE latitudes is DEFINITELY open to interpretation necessity. We know this just by climate arguments; if a categorical TC were to approach and turn favorably to impact those regions ... acceleration and so forth, winds are not limited to between 35 and 55 kts in those areas as the rapidity of storm motion exceeds decay rate with still marginal SSTs partially supportive, and a host of other aspects like storm-to environmental relative shear arithmetic .. etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 You guys, those max maps have been around for decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man have you been on the hype train for canes. Riding the hype and night train. Nah one storm at a time. Just concerned this year more than most. You are hyped up every year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Will similar features to the last storm be present to give this another East coastal push, possibly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 This has zero chance getting far up the east coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This has zero chance getting far up the east coast. The pattern doesn't look great for anything coming up the coast in the next couple weeks, to me at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said: Will similar features to the last storm be present to give this another East coastal push, possibly? Good question ... It's important for these TCs that are heavily guided in ensemble means ( to wit, this one appears tightly clustered through 96 hours ) along pathways that take them 30 to 120 naut miles NE of PR... That is considered a "climate key slot" in the statistics. There are exceptions to every rule, of course... but, > 50% of the so-dubbed "LI Express" events, or just EC threats in general, are trackable back to having passed through that described latitude and longitude. There's loads of "synergistic" reasons why that is probably the case ... that require a delicious popsicle-headache dissertation to explore ... but for the purpose of this potential system, it is indeed forecast to pass through that region. And, do so with that same sort of portended bee-line nearing the outer Bahamas - kind of the next key region whereby first there is historical precedence for the PR passage, then subsequently the Bahamas. The concern there after becomes what is happening with the total synoptic layout and evolution over time, east of 110 over the mid latitude continent. Right now, the models seem to want to languish a mid latitude subtropical ridge expression which is biasing the track after D 4 toward Florida impact ... or many members ending up over the GOM. etc. But, personally? I'm a bit of a fan of trend - particularly what I like to call 'synergistic trends' - this is where there is "art" in weather prediction. Synergy is the 'affect' of purpose that only emerges by the collective contribution of all components effecting a system. We call this "more than the sum of its part" ?? Obviously I know the reader knows this ...just making the point that extending this concept to trends...it is possible that we are creating trends that don't really seemed argued to exist when looking at the various factors that effect TC tracks... In this case, we have established a precedence for TCs turning up the coast ...a weak busted ravioli in June, and then Fay ...and technically Josephine can be included, it just sloped a trajectory more ENE.. But, the idea of TC presentation along the EC has become common to this season, relative to climate - three in one season is above average; yet doing so with an abundance of higher than normal mid Atlantic latitude geopotential height during the majority of space and time is 'sort of' incongruent. That is kind of a synergistic trend to achieve there...?? There hasn't been any reason to assume those would have taken place .... but we just keep seeming to materialize a weakness if not trough ... just in time, in each case, to bring these features along the EC. The only difference in notoriety is that they've been fairly mundane events - The impetus of this now way too long of a missive is that having a TC presently modeled to go through said climate key latitude and longitude geographic regioms, together with that synergistic "luck" ( if we will) ... should make one wonder if we should be watching the handling of the total synoptics ultimately guiding what this this will do after D 5... To saying nothing of the fact that D 5 is even stretching the Euro's operational accuracy curve a bit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 20, 2020 Author Share Posted August 20, 2020 GFS with 2 tropical systems hitting the GOM coast within a couple of days a few hundred miles apart, only in 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 20, 2020 Author Share Posted August 20, 2020 TD14 looks to take off, probably gets names ahead of TD13.. wonder when first recon goes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: GFS with 2 tropical systems hitting the GOM coast within a couple of days a few hundred miles apart, only in 2020 Quite a historic potential there with IOH around the Gulf unprocessed and nakedly available to any above normal troposphere for development that sets up, which that is modeled to do so... That vestigial subtropical ridging to the N should impart an east tendency to the flow which would translates to lowered shear... Then, insert TC into that total realm ... that has under-cooked in the models written all over it.. I just wonder, has there ever simultaneously been two at or > Cat 3 hurricanes in the GOM before - mmm guessin' no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 20, 2020 Author Share Posted August 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Quite a historic potential there with IOH around the Gulf unprocessed and nakedly available to any above normal troposphere for development that sets up, which that is modeled to do so... That vestigial subtropical ridging to the N should impart an east tendency to the flow which would translates to lowered shear... Then, insert TC into that total realm ... that has under-cooked in the models written all over it.. I just wonder, has there ever simultaneously been two at or > Cat 3 hurricanes in the GOM before - mmm guessin' no? Don't they start to impeded each other? I guess would depend on how large their overall circulation is.. but there always seems to be one system that wins out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said: Don't they start to impeded each other? I guess would depend on how large their overall circulation is.. but there always seems to be one system that wins out.. They can share domain space but can impede ... depends. I fledging system can get abraded by shear due to outflow from a more powerful system, but they can be similar in intensity and then the outflows interfere less. I've actually seen big hurricanes that have massive areal circumvallate arms the extend so far away curvilinearly from the inner sanctum of the vortex, that a TD forms on the spiral arm. Gilbert did this back in the day ... But those are not typically long for the world unless they somehow peel away and can escape the outflow from the dominate predecessor vortex. But....better evolved dual system can in fact get into a steady state where their sustaining is not interfering with one another ... Fugi Waras for example - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 Jesus ... ... this is no rapid spin up season that’s for damn sure. It might be what Scott was pointing out that we just got all these little turds in the punch bowl because otherwise the main parametrics are all signaling five concurrent category 12 hurricane should be out there right now yet the models are just utterly languishing in any kind of development and frankly they’re doing well as these things just keep up and vanishing into open whirls and then a new flare up happens ... phew here we go and then it fails again rinse and repeat all the way across the basin This is not one of those years were single thunderstorms turn into hurricanes overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/08/double-trouble-in-gulf-of-mexico-next.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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