Great Snow 1717 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 5:57 PM, dendrite said: I believe it's some kind of algorithm used to mechanically mix down wind from a certain level. I think there's rarely any real world validity to the numbers those maps spit out. Expand Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 5:57 PM, dendrite said: I believe it's some kind of algorithm used to mechanically mix down wind from a certain level. I think there's rarely any real world validity to the numbers those maps spit out. Expand Mixing down from like 850-700mb? How does a model get to 90mph gusts anywhere in New England, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 5:21 PM, weatherwiz said: I'm expecting a slight risk here when the new day 2 comes out!!! Expand Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 5:59 PM, powderfreak said: Mixing down from like 850-700mb? How does a model get to 90mph gusts anywhere in New England, ha. Expand It has a 100kt LLJ into the interior at H85. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 6:00 PM, dendrite said: It has a 100kt LLJ into the interior at H85. Expand Ahh there it is. I didn't realize it has 850mb as that strong. I was looking at the GFS and it looked like 50-60kts at H850 in that same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Should be hauling azz on that streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Maybe we can pull an ENH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 6:02 PM, powderfreak said: Ahh there it is. I didn't realize it has 850mb as that strong. I was looking at the GFS and it looked like 50-60kts at H850 in that same area. Expand That’s why we don’t use or look at FV3.. for anything.... ever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 6:02 PM, powderfreak said: Ahh there it is. I didn't realize it has 850mb as that strong. I was looking at the GFS and it looked like 50-60kts at H850 in that same area. Expand I really don't know what to expect. There's caution flags on each side of the spectrum. I wouldn't be surprised if it fails or if it surprises. Not much of a forecast there, but I don't need to make one for this so I'll be sitting back and enjoying watching it play out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 I do say the radar presentation looks the best it has in a while, plus recon appears to show a pressure fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 6:03 PM, radarman said: Maybe we can pull an ENH? Expand I was actually thinking about that. But, to save people's I elected not to say. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 6:04 PM, dendrite said: I really don't know what to expect. There's caution flags on each side of the spectrum. I wouldn't be surprised if it fails or if it surprises. Not much of a forecast there, but I don't need to make one for this so I'll be sitting back and enjoying watching it play out. Expand Amen for that, ha. Some pretty substantial differences still. At least it's not boring. Looks like a good ORH ASOS wind direction and track for some gusts coming out of the lowlands to the S/SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Watch our for spinners tonight on warm front. Signal is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Euro looks just as nasty as last run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Euro winds are as strong as 6z. Not backing down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 70-75kt winds at 925 over CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 We whhheeeeeeeeeeeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 6:15 PM, dendrite said: 70-75kt winds at 925 over CT. Expand Right into SE NH I think. At least 65 or so. Wish we had hourly because it’s moving so dam fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Tough day at the office for kev, looking for wind maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 6:18 PM, CoastalWx said: Right into SE NH I think. At least 65 or so. Wish we had hourly because it’s moving so dam fast. Expand 100m wind speed is in 1hr increments. Just back dat map up. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2020080312/new-hampshire/wind-speed-330f/20200805-0600z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 6:19 PM, CoastalWx said: Tough day at the office for kev, looking for wind maps. Expand You’re doing same thing... looking for rain maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 6:20 PM, Damage In Tolland said: You’re doing same thing... looking for rain maps Expand LOL, I’m having drinks with Epstein as we mouse Over rain totals in the Catskills. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 6:22 PM, CoastalWx said: LOL, I’m having drinks with Epstein as we mouse Over rain totals in the Catskills. Expand Each time the mouse moves take a sip.. remove article of clothing? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 FWIW, the 12z HRRR was just as impressive with winds for tomorrow. I know it's a bit far out of the HRRR range but still noteworthy. 18z HRRR should start rolling within the day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 It does look better on radar now too. Seems to be organizing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6yP1tcy9a10&vidve=5727&#=1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Fuk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Those srn CT counties are in for a good blow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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