Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Right 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The image clearly shows the system inland well south of us, so how SNE sees much wind is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 38 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: No issue with that. Looks about right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The image clearly shows the system inland well south of us, so how SNE sees much wind is beyond me. That’s a formidable low that would cut west of some of us. Not saying it’s correct, but it’s one of several possibilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s a formidable low that would cut west of some of us. Not saying it’s correct, but it’s one of several possibilities Yes, I think that is the Ukie...best solution for us. Probably strong TS here...we'll see. Beats tracking mosquitoes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Reading your first call, I think our thoughts are similar. Although it’s still possible I suppose, I never bought into the deep Florida landfall solutions some of the models were spitting out. These FL scrapers are always tough, but more so this time because the track and intensity will actually have upstream impacts on our sensible wx, rather than the usual hard right off of NC and harmlessly OTS. Right now I’m thinking a center pass just SE of Montauk, but not really sure yet about intensity up here. If I had to guess right now I’d be fairly conservative. Maybe a 45-55kt TS that’s in the process of transitioning with some moderate shoreline impacts but most of that wind offshore. Rain the biggest threat inland, but not sure it’s something to write home about unless there’s some enhancement or PRE. Really hard to go higher than that here right now when we don’t know what this’ll look like past Florida yet. I do think there is a higher ceiling though if Isaías decides to ride the Gulf Stream rather than I-95. Yea, we are on the same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 NHC calls for shear for the rest of its life...looks like it abates south of Carolinas to me....unless the shear east of FL follows it north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 So fugly on satellite. Yawn. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So fugly on satellite. Yawn. Hard to believe it’s an 85Mph sustained storm right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Hard to believe it’s an 85Mph sustained storm right now. Strengthening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So fugly on satellite. Yawn. oof you're not kidding. Not a good thing to see...especially for so early in the morning when you would expect overnight convection to really aid in things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m struggling Bad am run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So fugly on satellite. Yawn. Lots of dry air here in S FL pushing into the storm. Good for me because won’t see much rain, and maybe some high end TS winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Looks fine. All systems go. Flight level winds of 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Guys it’s a minimal category one hurricane that’s sheared and in a dry environment. A stadium effect eye ain’t walking through the door lol. It’s a good thing it’s POS strength wise. The last thing we need is a weather disaster in the country. A nice gale with some heavy rains would be welcomed here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 I’m not sure what model Ginx posted? May have been Ukie or Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Looked like the 06z GFS Euro from Windy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Yiggity yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 It's coming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: It's coming 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 48 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Guys it’s a minimal category one hurricane that’s sheared and in a dry environment. A stadium effect eye ain’t walking through the door lol. Bahamian dews just can't compete with ours. Once it's up here, it'll soak up like a sponge and explosively intensify, even while tracking inland. It's science. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 It would be fun to see a TC strengthen from DE to LI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Bahamian dews just can't compete with ours. Once it's up here, it'll soak up like a sponge and explosively intensify, even while tracking inland. It's science. Could go annular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Could go annular I'm thinking the ever elusive rhombus structure is possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Biggest threat is a PRE on this. The wind threat is lol up here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Biggest threat is a PRE on this. The wind threat is lol up here. Yep. Although maybe S coast gets like 40-50 I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Euro 6Z LF Florida re-emerge and strengthening with a 2nd stronger LF SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Biggest threat is a PRE on this. The wind threat is lol up here. 50 on the coast with leaves on trees is not a usual summer day. Pretty much all TS strength storms are LOL inland Mass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 24 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: It would be fun to see a TC strengthen from DE to LI What can happen is a barotrophic enhancement as it transitions to extratropical. All these posts this morning are pretty menial. I mean it is a weak TS but with lots of rain and coastal wind its not your everyday summer rain storm as depicted today anyway. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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