RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 On 7/31/2020 at 12:08 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ok . I ask bc All it’s 0z ensembles that were west and hit FL were under 65 knots Expand Yea. Looks like a weak system especially for FL standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 On 7/31/2020 at 11:58 AM, Baroclinic Zone said: Odds are forever in his favor on NBD here. It takes a precise track to make TCs meaningful in New England. Let's stick to model analysis and lay off calling people out. Expand Thanks all I did was post the data with zero comment. 6 Z Euro takes it into Miami then up the spine of Florida. Lots of solutions but the westward trend is pretty obvious this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 6Z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 On 7/31/2020 at 12:17 PM, Ginx snewx said: 6Z Euro Expand I also recall the euro doing a similar solution with (I think it was Michael?) last year? That is certainly possible...I think we'll know just how possible though by this evening. I am shocked this was kept a cat 1 given the recent recon flights. But, if we start seeing signs of strengthening or organization over the next several hours this solution IMO can be tossed pretty quickly...but for now it's something to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 6z HWRF(s) and HMON both have this making landfall on the SC/NC border, staying inland for a bit then re-emerging and heading NE into New England. Not disliking that track, gets us the rain we need without a ton of damaging wind... seems like Euro op is on its own at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 12z tropical models still more in line with just off FL coast and into various parts of SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 On 7/31/2020 at 12:34 PM, CoastalWx said: 12z tropical models still more in line with just off FL coast and into various parts of SNE. Expand Do you think we see any type of PRE with this? Models look a bit dry for Monday (though they get wetter Monday night) but given the flow Monday with some lift you have to wonder if we'll see some heavy rain around...maybe not exactly PRE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 On 7/31/2020 at 12:34 PM, CoastalWx said: 12z tropical models still more in line with just off FL coast and into various parts of SNE. Expand Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 On 7/31/2020 at 12:42 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah recon hasn't been awfully impressive. Some of the hurricane guidance though has Isaias becoming more organized today as it moves NW and removes itself from the influence of DR/Haiti so I'm not surprised we see continuity in the 8am advisory. If it's weaker, it isn't by that much given the central pressure IMO. My guess is the 06z EPS doesn't follow the op...it hasn't endorsed this weak-west track in bulk since the early forecast. Expand Seems like it is also being impacted by some westerly shear? I haven't looked at shear forecasts moving forward but is shear to become more or less favorable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 A nice region wide 3-5" soaking would be nice. We don't need any damage thank you..... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 I completely agree with your thoughts...makes ton of sense and there is historical backing to those thoughts as well. What site did you get that second graphic from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 On 7/31/2020 at 12:42 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah recon hasn't been awfully impressive. Some of the hurricane guidance though has Isaias becoming more organized today as it moves NW and removes itself from the influence of DR/Haiti so I'm not surprised we see continuity in the 8am advisory. If it's weaker, it isn't by that much given the central pressure IMO. My guess is the 06z EPS doesn't follow the op...it hasn't endorsed this weak-west track in bulk since the early forecast. Expand It does follow the op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 On 7/31/2020 at 12:42 PM, weatherwiz said: Do you think we see any type of PRE with this? Models look a bit dry for Monday (though they get wetter Monday night) but given the flow Monday with some lift you have to wonder if we'll see some heavy rain around...maybe not exactly PRE. Expand I don't see evidence yet, but I think we need to wait to see how the trough interacts with this. The storm is so small, it may prevent a PRE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 On 7/31/2020 at 1:00 PM, CoastalWx said: I don't see evidence yet, but I think we need to wait to see how the trough interacts with this. The storm is so small, it may prevent a PRE. Expand Which is funny, considering what a gigantic wave it came from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 On 7/31/2020 at 11:51 AM, JC-CT said: Either way, I picked an awful week for a staycation Expand New to weather, eh? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 On 7/31/2020 at 1:00 PM, CoastalWx said: I don't see evidence yet, but I think we need to wait to see how the trough interacts with this. The storm is so small, it may prevent a PRE. Expand Ahhh interesting...thanks. This system does look to be rather small and compact. On 7/31/2020 at 1:07 PM, WxWatcher007 said: The TCHP plot? There's a fantastic archive here: https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/fulllist.php Thanks. This is what happens when I try to forecast the forecast lol. Still don't agree with it, but definitely on the table if this stays weak. Expand This is great, thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 next ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 On 7/31/2020 at 12:22 PM, weatherwiz said: I also recall the euro doing a similar solution with (I think it was Michael?) last year? That is certainly possible...I think we'll know just how possible though by this evening. I am shocked this was kept a cat 1 given the recent recon flights. But, if we start seeing signs of strengthening or organization over the next several hours this solution IMO can be tossed pretty quickly...but for now it's something to consider. Expand 6Z EPS buries Izzy inland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 On 7/31/2020 at 1:19 PM, Ginx snewx said: 6Z EPS buries Izzy inland Expand Talk about agreement We could see that for a blizzard here and the storm would still go OTS or cut west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Would this be the smallest tropical cyclone up in these parts? It seems most of our historical hits have been larger storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Could rain maker here on the EPS. I'll take it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 We could use some rain, Don't know if we need 4-6" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 On 7/31/2020 at 1:32 PM, Cyclone-68 said: Would this be the smallest tropical cyclone up in these parts? It seems most of our historical hits have been larger storms? Expand I'm sure too the size has to play a significant factor in the progression of it as it moves up the coast. I thought too that these systems typically expand as they move north in latitude (especially if the system is transitioning from tropical to sub-tropical or extra-tropical). A smaller system could also perhaps mean a higher probability for some significant impact on a localized level? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 On 7/31/2020 at 2:01 PM, weatherwiz said: I'm sure too the size has to play a significant factor in the progression of it as it moves up the coast. I thought too that these systems typically expand as they move north in latitude (especially if the system is transitioning from tropical to sub-tropical or extra-tropical). A smaller system could also perhaps mean a higher probability for some significant impact on a localized level? Expand I just hope we get a PRE that would make our mommas proud 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 If this does go into FL.. good chance we see no rain here as it rots out south of us. You want rain.. then you aren’t rooting for FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 What a melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 seems to be intensifying quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 On 7/31/2020 at 2:17 PM, correnjim1 said: seems to be intensifying quickly Expand Yes, the nearly exposed center is a classic hallmark of RI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 On 7/31/2020 at 2:15 PM, Damage In Tolland said: If this does go into FL.. good chance we see no rain here as it rots out south of us. You want rain.. then you aren’t rooting for FL Expand ehh not sure I totally agree with that. Given the position of the trough axis and mean flow ahead of it we'll get typical summer-time pop up downpours and t'storms daily...but to your point certainly nothing that would provide widespread relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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