Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Limp Bizkit? Sloppy seconds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Unfortunately for those who want wind, it will have to go into NC which means weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Yup ,, that trough blows . Maybe it can shift a touch. Seen this movie many times . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Yup ,, that trough blows . Maybe it can shift a touch. Seen this movie many times . Reminds me of tracking winter storms....here it comes, then goodbye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Mr Drag says Posting the standard GEFS/EPS ensemble 500MB winds for 12z/3 (decent RRQ)... and the now westward tracking EPS/GEFS all issued 00z/31. My take: the east coast is in the slot for at a minimum, dangerous rip currents, pockets of excessive 6-12 hour rainfall, preceded in some places by 12-18 hours of a possible PRE, for which I'll add composites and references a little later this morning, As for wind/tornadoes/surge...east of track wherever that may end up. I do see Isaias impacting the NY forum (separate thread on NY forum and will offer a bit more comment there) with a minimum, HIGH RISK dangerous RC for s coastal LI and heavy rain for most if not all the forum as depicted in this mornings WPC D4-5. Correct me if I'm wrong: I think the NHC OFFICIAL is from the 21z/30 advisory? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 17 minutes ago, Hoth said: Yikes. Glad I had my trees pruned recently in that scenario. Despite someone in E CT who thinks he’s a tropical expert calling for NBD here.. this is a very serious and legit threat for us . Not a lock , but when Walt Drag is worried .. this is real 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: 5 bun run Just where I want to be 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Despite someone in E CT who thinks he’s a tropical expert calling for NBD here.. this is a very serious and legit threat for us . Not a lock , but when Walt Drag is worried .. this is real Cowan noted Isaias' location near the entrance region of a healthy jet as it climbs the coast could argue for maintaining strength better than it might otherwise. We'll see. I'm not in any camp yet. These things are damn fickle. I didn't even manage a gust to 20 with a purported 60mph TS going to my west a few weeks ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 I actually need to get my windows replaced, making this a bad time for any serious winds, so it's probably coming with a vengeance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Storm looks a bit crappier this am, intensity forecasts the next couple days are all over the place looks like it could struggle for 72 hours until it leaves the space coast S inflow should be chocked off decently now from the mountains to the S and SE of the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 13 minutes ago, SlantStickers Anonymous said: I actually need to get my windows replaced, making this a bad time for any serious winds, so it's probably coming with a vengeance. Actually, it could be a great time. You can hope for winds to break your windows and HOI will cover your new ones. Sometimes things work out that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Haha yeah. I’m just posting the runs and data. That’s obviously unlikely. I want to see what the 06/12z guidance shows now that it has better initialization data but I doubt we suddenly get some big shift that takes this OTS by like 200 miles. Intensity is a far bigger question than track to me right now—which is usually the case with tropical. Is it normal for two recon flights to be flying into a storm at the same time? (Starting to follow tropical much more closely and learn more since it's my weakest aspect of the field). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Just now, moneypitmike said: Actually, it could be a great time. You can hope for winds to break your windows and HOI will cover your new ones. Sometimes things work out that way. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 23 minutes ago, Hoth said: Cowan noted Isaias' location near the entrance region of a healthy jet as it climbs the coast could argue for maintaining strength better than it might otherwise. We'll see. I'm not in any camp yet. These things are damn fickle. I didn't even manage a gust to 20 with a purported 60mph TS going to my west a few weeks ago. Yeah at this point nothing can or should be ruled out. Lots can and will change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Despite someone in E CT who thinks he’s a tropical expert calling for NBD here.. this is a very serious and legit threat for us . Not a lock , but when Walt Drag is worried .. this is real what the heck is your problem? I posted what the models show, you don't like what they show so you attack me. Tool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: what the heck is your problem? I posted what the models show, you don't like what they show so you attack me. Tool You posted a wind map of an op run. Attack? Man up dude. We’re just discussing a possible situation. Ease off throttle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You posted a wind map of an op run. Attack? Man up dude. We’re just discussing a possible situation. Ease off throttle Thinks he's a tropical expert? Take another break man you need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Thinks he's a tropical expert? Take another break man you need it. Take a dip in the pool, cool off.. and come back with a level head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Your fun-loving baby sitter is here. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Take a dip in the pool, cool off.. and come back with a level head Funny you were all over the OP run yesterday now you toss. Post your butt boy Crankys tweets this morning of it going into Florida then SC and then being nothing but a gusty rain storm. Pick and choose all you want I will stick with science and not your annual tropical wish casting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Your fun-loving baby sitter is here. Reel Kev in,he is off the rails as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Either way, I picked an awful week for a staycation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 All solutions are possible at this stage, however, all these ENS probs are pretty pointless right now. I mean confidence in what happens with Isaias over the next 24-hours is extremely low...so forget about 4-5 days down the road. The prospects for 4-5 days down the road is highly dependent on evolution over the next 24-36 hours so until we get through this period what models shows 4-5 days out is rather pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Reel Kev in,he is off the rails as usual What an attack . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Despite someone in E CT who thinks he’s a tropical expert calling for NBD here.. this is a very serious and legit threat for us . Not a lock , but when Walt Drag is worried .. this is real Odds are forever in his favor on NBD here. It takes a precise track to make TCs meaningful in New England. Let's stick to model analysis and lay off calling people out. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Euro into MIA. LOL. Might need to entertain that solution again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro into MIA. LOL. Might need to entertain that solution again. As weak sauce? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: As weak sauce? It didn't look that strong, but I could not tell specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: It didn't look that strong, but I could not tell specifics. Ok . I ask bc All it’s 0z ensembles that were west and hit FL were under 65 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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