Typhoon Tip Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Just my opinion... but it's easy to envision/imagine a rapidly redeveloping or newly developing surface circulation somewhere immediately astride the N/NE coastal region of the Island of Hisp. That mid level presentation is folding cyclonically now more readily in the last couple of hours ... some models have been suggesting that - including the GFS actually - so perhaps we finally are on the verge of at last witnessing an actually TC emergence here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Right over ACK on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Right over ACK on the GFS. how much would that effect SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Just now, correnjim1 said: how much would that effect SNE? Fairly strong winds SE MA and the Cape. Heavy rain CT into BOS. Maybe TS gusts at BOS. It's a tight system as modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Fairly strong winds SE MA and the Cape. Heavy rain CT into BOS. Maybe TS gusts at BOS. It's a tight system as modeled. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 The upper level look would lead to me to believe more likely OTS than a hit here...but certainly could see some moisture and gusty winds (much needed rain too!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 30, 2020 Author Share Posted July 30, 2020 current feeling is this scrapes the islands and not much in most of SNE, but it will become a hurricane, likely only a CAT1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Yeah... courtesy of Ryan H.'s nice statistical overview of New England cases, there is a typical layout in the 500 mb height anomaly distribution ..where positive orients from eastern Canada arcing around the Maritimes and subtended below that, there is often a weakness in the lower OV...usually centroid over the midriff easter cordillera. The TCs move with the circulation conducted by these maestros .. up the east coast, but the positive anomaly blocks the eastern turn such that it manages the whole trek and strikes. The 96 hour EPS' mean from 00z "sort of" depicts that... The 500 mb does not offer enough of that last minute/latitude block to prevent the turn. That suggests a parabolic miss...albeit, uber close. It may clip the Hatteras ... It wouldn't take much of a reposition of the positive height anomaly lurking E of CC and S of NS to get this to Boston before the east turn, and probably needs another couple of runs to really gain confidence that/those crucial details are necessarily being handled right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I think it’s really close. Really close. Always lean OTS up here but the pattern as modeled currently is about what we need for more direct impacts. yeah I agree it is close...I think the orientation is just a bit off and perhaps would like to see some better digging west of us. Certainly close but when it comes to us...close usually not enough lol. I do think we will see some heavy rain and gusty winds though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Everyone tossing the Euro, good luck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Canadian into FL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Canadian into FL. Ughhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ukie A bit NW of the GFS? Canal-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A bit NW of the GFS? Canal-ish. 12z is out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 30, 2020 Author Share Posted July 30, 2020 Goes-16 1 minute meso floater is the greatest tropical weenie gift ever 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 34 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Everyone tossing the Euro, good luck It keeps showing different solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z is out? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: i'd take that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 972 wow we chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: That would shut me up for a while 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Hopefully we 1635 with track and intensity 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Long Island Express or bust TRACK TRACK I wouldn’t want to get canceled on the board i take a Bob lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Can anyone speculate what the astronomical tidal situation would be at midweek if this makes a close approach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro is going to be robust. Euro looks like it may have initialized the center remotely closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Can anyone speculate what the astronomical tidal situation would be at midweek if this makes a close approach? Could see 40-50 footers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Long Island Express or bust TRACK TRACK I wouldn’t want to get canceled on the board I want a pure tropical system. That track is impossible in early August. let's save the 38 type strike for late Sept. or Oct. Perhaps some wrap around snows like 1804 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Euro folds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: I want a pure tropical system. That track is impossible in early August. let's save the 38 type strike for late Sept. or Oct. Perhaps some wrap around snows like 1804 Carol was later in August. But in general I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Euro slows way down just east of Florida... models are probably crap until tonight or tomorrow anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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