frostfern Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 32 minutes ago, Solidsting said: hmm im getting vibes of the 1998 southern great lakes derecho. i hope the setup holds true for the overnight hours. The thermodynamic setting is similar but the shear doesn't look quite as good extending to south and east. Derecho's can sometimes be CAPE-driven towards the end of their life-cycle though. The MCS can generate it's own shear via a rear-inflow jet. I'm worried if there's strong dry rear-inflow jet it could re-intensify coming in off the lake like in 1998. Sometimes a very cold Lake Michigan marine layer causes an air-hockey table effect. The rear-inflow can accelerate as it glides over the smooth surface of the marine inversion. It then crashes to the ground when it reaches the shore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 The line looks kind of stung out in an E-W orientation. It's not the best orientation for shear / cold-pool interaction. The storms seem further east than what was in the models too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solidsting Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 yeah im just excited. id be happy with a regular bowing segment plowing thru. been quite a few years here since ive seen an actual powerful storm cross my area. last few years anything that headed this way usually weakened unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 Yeah, seems like HRRR whiffed pretty bad. Did not show robust development this far east this early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Solidsting said: yeah im just excited. id be happy with a regular bowing segment plowing thru. been quite a few years here since ive seen an actual powerful storm cross my area. last few years anything that headed this way usually weakened unfortunately. Yea. I enjoyed watching the Florida-style lake breeze stuff last week, but it was pretty hit-or-miss in terms of actually having a proper storm in your back yard. I'm hoping for a good light show tonight. Though the storms themselves are still a long way off I can see the anvil canopy spreading in from the NW now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 The good thing about this time of night is storms don't eat crap over the lake like they do if its still mid-afternoon. Should just slide right over the marine layer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 About half an hour ago. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solidsting Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 yeah i see the movement is now more ESE now following the instability, they were moving way more south than east earlier. its good these formed more east earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 The boarderline severe cells in SON split the gap between my west and east!! I saw some amazing clouds just around 8. Once again we get nothing when not far off the shoreline and Toronto are getting a pretty good show, unreal. This was the best chance for southern Grey county like Hanover/Walkerton to get a severe thunderstorm in a very long time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 My first time using Canadian radar data on Radarscope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solidsting Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 alot of these models seem to be off. looking like its anyones guess. hopefully the storms congeal and hold together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 Line totally weakened and split apart over West Michigan. Outflow got way ahead of the convection. Ludington got a pretty strong cell with a lot of lighting, but the southern part of the line kind of ate crap despite decent lingering instability and steep EML lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jut05 Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 Impressive 75 MPH wind gust recorded on the bridge of the ship Maitowoc while it was in the middle of lake Michigan last night. I am not sure I could handle being 30 miles offshore and dealing with those storms at night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solidsting Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 yeah they fell apart. i was pretty sad. i was hoping they held together but like as mentioned the outflow got way to ahead of the storms. now the mid atlantic got our derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 Not surprised an outflow took Columbus out of the game today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 There's a supercell with weak rotation between Louisiana, MO, Detroit, IL, and Time, IL. How could you be located at Time?? Only Einstein could figure that out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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