June Discobs 2020

[JakkelWx]

PWATs are over 2 inches east of I-95

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I don't know about 12 inches but if the ull cuts off for days  in  a conducive spot ...along with typical  good moisture flow / pwats especially being summer time I'd think several inches would be on the table.  Orograhic lift will also be in play for Blue ridge and even Parrs.

GFS ENS is 5" which means the OP isn't on it's own, but I'd like to know if there's a place you can view Euro OP/ENS rainfall that is night behind a paywall.

[AmericanWxFreak]

After this line pushes east, no more rain for the day? Wanna put the skis in the water for tomorrow

[Eskimo Joe]

14 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

After this line pushes east, no more rain for the day? Wanna put the skis in the water for tomorrow

Correct. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Correct. 

Thanks, and damn just saw some of these progs for next week - so we have the GFS and Euro showing stupid amounts of rain, huh? 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, AmericanWxFreak said:

Thanks, and damn just saw some of these progs for next week - so we have the GFS and Euro showing stupid amounts of rain, huh? 

I haven't seen Euro guidance for rainfall.  So far this spring and early summer it appears that numerical guidance has vastly over estimated rainfall in the medium term. We've had several instances where up to 3 or even 4 inches of rain was forecast and the area wound up with less than an inch. Until we're inside 24 hours, I'm largely ignoring the guidance.

[AmericanWxFreak]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

I haven't seen Euro guidance for rainfall.  So far this spring and early summer it appears that numerical guidance has vastly over estimated rainfall in the medium term. We've had several instances where up to 3 or even 4 inches of rain was forecast and the area wound up with less than an inch. Until we're inside 24 hours, I'm largely ignoring the guidance.

Gotcha, and that makes sense, I have noticed the over modeling of liquid this season also - well see how it plays out tho!

[Eskimo Joe]

Per weather.us, the Euro has <1.5" rain north of I-66 for all of next week. 99% chance GFS is smoking crack.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Per weather.us, the Euro has <1.5" rain north of I-66 for all of next week. 99% chance GFS is smoking crack.

It has a similarly ridiculous looking precip max further south over eastern VA though.

20"+  lol

Reality will probably be some chances for scattered showers/storms for a few days next week.

[Rtd208]

It looks like the 12z GFS is now in line with the 00z Euro with the ULL/cutoff heavy rain for next week, it really doesn't get much rainfall above the M/D line.

[nw baltimore wx]

Sun is out here and it's really sticky out there.  I did some moving of seedlings and am sweating like a pig.  I was hoping for cloudy and showers all day to help the seedlings survive, but if not, it's not a big deal.  They were coming up from last year's harvest that I didn't pick and don't want to just kill, so I'm not too invested. 

Picked up another .15" this morning to bring the event to .83".  Looking at that map from @losetoa6, I've got only another 11 inches coming in the next week.

[WxUSAF]

I lost like a foot of rain on the gfs

[nj2va]

64 and overcast here in Deep Creek.  Hoping the sun breaks through the clouds for the late afternoon/evening.

[Rhino16]

Yep... going through the gap of light garbage rain, while the thunderstorms Go both north and south.

How were yesterdays storms up there? What were they like? I’ve forgotten what a good storm is like.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

It looks like the 12z GFS is now in line with the 00z Euro with the ULL/cutoff heavy rain for next week, it really doesn't get much rainfall above the M/D line.

Woah the GFS caved to the Euro? 

[George BM]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I lost like a foot of rain on the gfs

Reaper call or Watch list?

[yoda]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I lost like a foot of rain on the gfs

Thanks Ji

[LP08]

12z euro basically has nothing for next week.  Keeps all the rain in NC

[poolz1]

Reminds me of the ull situation a few weeks ago.

Cutters during winter and suppression during the summer? Only in the MA.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

[BristowWx]

25 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Reminds me of the ull situation a few weeks ago.

Cutters during winter and suppression during the summer? Only in the MA.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
 

Epic winter incoming.  You can count o it!  

[yoda]

Nice disco about early next week from this afternoon's LWX AFD... but I don't remember the May 18th pattern off the top of my head... will have to go back and look it up:

Quote

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Guidance continues to struggle with the ultimate evolution of the
long term pattern, no doubt due to the multiple closed upper level
lows involved, but the latest (12Z 6/11) GFS is relatively close to
the most recently available (0Z 6/11) ECMWF run as of the writing of
this section (1 PM). Both show one closed low retreating northeast
over the St. Lawrence Valley while a second drops south through the
Ohio Valley on Sunday. By Monday, both models have this second low
stalling out over the southern Appalachians, though the GFS remains
a little further north than the ECWMF. By Tuesday, both continue to
drift this low a little further south, with the GFS remaining
slightly further north compared to the ECWMF. Finally, on Wednesday
the GFS starts to lift the low back to the northeast into Virginia,
while the ECMWF remains more sluggish and keeps it stalled over the
Carolinas. The 0Z GGEM was reasonably close to these solutions as
well.

At the surface, this will likely induce low pressure development
well south of our region, but warm/moisture advection and isentropic
lift north and east around the low means that showers and possibly
steadier periods of rain will make their way northward into our
region starting Sunday and continuing straight through Wednesday.
This is reminiscent of the pattern we had around May 18th.

The upside of the latest guidance is that with the low now looking
more likely to settle further south, the odds of the heaviest rain
over our region appear to be decreasing, with a more likely bulls-
eye in southern VA and the Carolinas. High pressure to our
northeast will try to bring drier air into our region from the
north, and certainly the further north one is, the less risk of
significant rain over the next week. That said, we will not be far
away from the heavier rains, and as we`ve learned many times in the
past, closed lows are hard to forecast, so the current model
placement, even though it is fairly close, may well turn out to be
incorrect to a larger degree than the latest guidance spread
indicates. Bottom line is that the entire long term looks
unseasonably cool, but just how much precipitation we receive
remains to be seen. There may be a flood risk, but it is highly
uncertain. Will need to watch guidance trends through the rest of
the week and the weekend.

[MN Transplant]

1 hour ago, LP08 said:

12z euro basically has nothing for next week.  Keeps all the rain in NC

Hard to believe that any of the models are going to get this setup right.

 

[CAPE]

Picked up 0.34" today. Not very impressive, but better than nothing. I knew running the sprinkler yesterday was the right move.

[Rvarookie]

2 hours ago, LP08 said:

12z euro basically has nothing for next week.  Keeps all the rain in NC

Of course because it knows I’ll be at the beach and my typical start time of drinking at noon needs to be moved up to 9am to account for the chasing kids around 

[WxUSAF]

12” difference in total precip for MBY between 6z and 18z gfs. 

[nw baltimore wx]

It's turning into a beautiful evening.  Humidity still dropping and temps in the low 80's.

Started happy hour with a Manhattan and cruised the back 100 (square yards?) checking out the seedling transfers and pulling a few weeds with drink in hand.  Back inside and opened the slider and the windows and turned off the downstairs AC.  The upstairs AC died last August and I'm on the schedule for a replacement, but last night's sleep was brutal.  Tonight and through the weekend should be awesome.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Just saw it ...its really weak this run with the ull energy.  I don't think this is set yet. Models currently look a bit confused with the vort bundle diving south.  Euro breaks a small weak piece off this run . Its also had 2 or 3 separate pieces on occasion fujiwaran around each other . Gfs also has had 2 pieces bouncing around.  It be nice if we can can get something to consolidate or a bigger and stronger  piece to  pinch off. 

You can actually see 3 pieces on today's Euro

That said..looking at Eps...we lost almost all the big hits. 

 

In a nutshell from WPC- still plenty of uncertainty and important details still yet to be resolved...

Some guidance is still showing meaningful spread and variability but there is gradually increasing potential for a heavy rainfall event somewhere within an area extending from the central Appalachians through Mid-Atlantic to the eastern Carolinas. Typical guidance error for forecasts several days out in time--as well as difficulty in resolving important smaller-scale details that will determine where heavier rainfall bands as well as training/repeat activity set up--keep the confidence in specifics fairly low at this time. Localized maximum five-day totals of 5-10 inches may be possible depending on the exact path of the upper low. At the same time the clouds/rainfall will keep high temperatures around 5-12F below normal over portions of the East. Readings should drift closer to normal by next Wed-Thu.

 

[nw baltimore wx]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

In a nutshell from WPC- still plenty of uncertainty and important details still yet to be resolved...

Some guidance is still showing meaningful spread and variability but there is gradually increasing potential for a heavy rainfall event somewhere within an area extending from the central Appalachians through Mid-Atlantic to the eastern Carolinas. Typical guidance error for forecasts several days out in time--as well as difficulty in resolving important smaller-scale details that will determine where heavier rainfall bands as well as training/repeat activity set up--keep the confidence in specifics fairly low at this time. Localized maximum five-day totals of 5-10 inches may be possible depending on the exact path of the upper low. At the same time the clouds/rainfall will keep high temperatures around 5-12F below normal over portions of the East. Readings should drift closer to normal by next Wed-Thu.

My garden would love low 80's, high humidity, partly sunny, and off and on showers for a few days.  I don't need 5" (even though I'm mostly Irish, RR), but I'd gladly take a heavy downpour every day.

[SnowtoRain]

0.42" today puts me at 0.59" for the month, could use a few more showers down this way

[Eskimo Joe]

GEFS and ENS don't get 500 heights above 585 through the 25th of June and dead tropics. This is quickly shaping up to be the year without a summer.