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June Banter 2020


George BM
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PDS Tornado Watch 333 in effect until 9PM EDT June 23 2020

 

Hazards: 

Numerous long-track intense tornadoes likely

Numerous significant wind gusts to 105 mph likely

Widespread large hail with scattered giant hail events to 4" in diameter likely 

 

Discussion: 

A well-developed and intense MCS/derecho continues to move through much of West Virginia AOA 65kts. The environment within the watch area is characterized by extreme instability (MLCAPE 6000+ J/kg), impressive shear (EBWD 60-80 kts), high moisture content (Pwats of 2-2.25"+) and strong DCAPE (1200-1500+ J/kg). As the MCS moves into the mountains additional supercells are expected to rapidly develop by 19-20z along the foothills/Blue ridge ahead of the main line and move east through the DC and Baltimore metropolitan areas. With the very strong low-level shear also in place (effective SRH of 300-600 m2/s2) these cells will have the greatest risk of producing long-track strong to violent tornadoes as well as very large to giant hail. The greatest wind threat over this region will come with the main line of storms between 20-23z with high-end severe winds (possibly in excess of 100 mph). Storms will move out of the watch area by 00z.

 

Forecaster: George BM

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Well, the economic data has come in.  It turns out that there was about a 80% drop in restaurant dine-in activity before anyone even knew what a stay-at-home order was.  Now that those orders have been lifted, only about 20-25% of their typical demand has returned.  Even though many states are allowing up to 50% capacity, they're coming nowhere close to even approaching that.  One could surmise that the pseudo-lockdown only affected 20% of consumer demand.  The remaining 80% was voluntary.  The barbershop economy isn't displaying this "pent-up demand" and a V-shaped recovery, as we were told would happen.  Reviewing the GDP report from the 1st quarter reveals we were already in a recession by mid-March due to massive disruptions in manufacturing and supply chains.  But now, I'm going to go back to reading Animal Farm and 1984, and conjure up some more fantastical stories of tyrannical oppression.  And I plan to call some hair salons....my hair is out of control

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On 6/1/2020 at 10:54 PM, Inverted_Trough said:

Well, the economic data has come in.  It turns out that there was about a 80% drop in restaurant dine-in activity before anyone even knew what a stay-at-home order was.  Now that those orders have been lifted, only about 20-25% of their typical demand has returned.  Even though many states are allowing up to 50% capacity, they're coming nowhere close to even approaching that.  One could surmise that the pseudo-lockdown only affected 20% of consumer demand.  The remaining 80% was voluntary.  The barbershop economy isn't displaying this "pent-up demand" and a V-shaped recovery, as we were told would happen.  Reviewing the GDP report from the 1st quarter reveals we were already in a recession by mid-March due to massive disruptions in manufacturing and supply chains.  But now, I'm going to go back to reading Animal Farm and 1984, and conjure up some more fantastical stories of tyrannical oppression.  And I plan to call some hair salons....my hair is out of control

Gloating about the economy being even more destroyed than the worst-case projections as riots tear apart the major cities is certainly an interesting look...

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So got the news this week that even though the MD state superintendent did not give FCPS the 12 day waiver they were looking for, only got the 5 day with the last day on June 17. FCPS has decided to stop distance learning as of this Friday June 5th. All next week kids who are behind will get to catch up and then they all will get a reflection assignment on how distance learning worked or did not work for them. So as of this Friday the 2 Miss J's will be done with the 19/20 school year. We have opted for traditional grades vs. P/INCO. 

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3 hours ago, Mrs.J said:

So got the news this week that even though the MD state superintendent did not give FCPS the 12 day waiver they were looking for, only got the 5 day with the last day on June 17. FCPS has decided to stop distance learning as of this Friday June 5th. All next week kids who are behind will get to catch up and then they all will get a reflection assignment on how distance learning worked or did not work for them. So as of this Friday the 2 Miss J's will be done with the 19/20 school year. We have opted for traditional grades vs. P/INCO. 

Similar thing here for MoCo.  They'll give kids in middle/high school a Pass/Incomplete for 4th quarter, but you have the option to have a traditional grade or a Pass/Incomplete for the entirety of the 2nd semester (grades were given for 3rd quarter, so some combination of that and 4th quarter P/Inc).  School ends I think the end of next week if I remember the date correctly.  We've opted for the actual grade, too, for 2nd semester.

My daughter also took 2 AP exams, which were all online and shortened to like 45 minutes (normally they're a couple hours).  There's some disgruntlement with the process, as those APs are not cheap and you're getting basically a "lite" version this time around due to the current situation.  Also, there have been issues with submitting your final answers/essays but not getting recorded, and having to re-take it again later (this happened to my daughter, she took the AP Language and Composition a couple weeks ago, but the submission failed...so now she's having to re-take it this Friday!).  It's been a bit of a cluster, for sure.

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25 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Similar thing here for MoCo.  They'll give kids in middle/high school a Pass/Incomplete for 4th quarter, but you have the option to have a traditional grade or a Pass/Incomplete for the entirety of the 2nd semester (grades were given for 3rd quarter, so some combination of that and 4th quarter P/Inc).  School ends I think the end of next week if I remember the date correctly.  We've opted for the actual grade, too, for 2nd semester.

My daughter also took 2 AP exams, which were all online and shortened to like 45 minutes (normally they're a couple hours).  There's some disgruntlement with the process, as those APs are not cheap and you're getting basically a "lite" version this time around due to the current situation.  Also, there have been issues with submitting your final answers/essays but not getting recorded, and having to re-take it again later (this happened to my daughter, she took the AP Language and Composition a couple weeks ago, but the submission failed...so now she's having to re-take it this Friday!).  It's been a bit of a cluster, for sure.

Oh that sucks! The oldest Miss J is not taking any AP but will be doing Dual Enrollment in the fall. Students here got grades for 3rd term. So that is why we opted for them in 4th term. 

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