A-L-E-K Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 madison area about to post some big rain numbers 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 11 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: madison area about to post some big rain numbers yeah the airport might not get the super high amounts but the west side of town already has 2.5" plus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 patterns like this make the CAMs look so foolish 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 Don't know if lake breeze cumulus are going to do anything today. Even if storms do fire they'll probably just sit in place instead of moving east and giving inland areas needed rain. Could really use a little more rain here before the death ridge takes total control. Next cold front doesn't come until the 8th or 9th according to the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 Getting some nice wind gusts from the south. Won’t feel this nice outside for a week with the dews in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 Really efficient rain producers in Waukesha County I can tell you that. Was raining cats and dogs even in the tinier cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 91 here so far today, 5th 90+ of the year. MLI languishing as per the new norm for them at only 88. Only 3 AOA 90s there this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 8 year Anniversary of the 2012 Derecho is today. One of those events you never forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: best climo Overnight lows are too warm for best climo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 29, 2020 Author Share Posted June 29, 2020 Under a severe thunderstorm warning. Heavy rain definitely the bigger story though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 93 today at ORD, MDW and here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 5 hours ago, janetjanet998 said: models develop an interesting little low over western IL the next 24 hours PW vales >2 and 500mb temps warming to -3 C on NAM Looks like an MCV similar to the one that produced flooding near Minneapolis last night could develop with the shortwave moving in from OK/KS tonight. Not the best agreement on where things set up exactly, but some places in MO and the southern half of IL will likely post some big rainfall totals from it in the next 24-36h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 1 hour ago, beavis1729 said: Overnight lows are too warm for best climo. Lion’s Den on Lake Michigan a bit north of Milwaukee may be best summer climo. Yesterday for example their high was 69F. Today’s high temp has been 75F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 4 hours ago, madwx said: yeah the airport might not get the super high amounts but the west side of town already has 2.5" plus Nearly hydroplaned on Mineral Point eastbound just off the Beltline on my way home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 Another day with towers in the distance but nada here. Only 0.64" since the 10th. Looks like tonight/tomorrow rains miss south, and Wednesday's miss east again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 NAM is a "tad" bullish with rainfall amounts in SW IL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2020 Author Share Posted June 30, 2020 8 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: NAM is a "tad" bullish with rainfall amounts in SW IL Just a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ovweather Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 Over 5 inches of rain in southeast Louisville today while southwest parts of the city zilch. Been some crazy heavy rain totals across parts of KY the past few days. A road in Willisburg, KY was said to be under 10 feet of water this morning after over 7 inches of rain in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 The Mississippi River has been as low as I’ve seen in my 4 years living in Minneapolis. Was hoping to see some of the islands near Fort Snelling really grow this summer. Darn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 7 hours ago, Hoosier said: Just a little 06z NAM didn't back off..... already 4-8 inches in the Quincy area MS river river was already at or near flood stage form there to just north of STL models have the whole stem from UIN to mouth of OH river dumped on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 I'm already seeing some pissed off cumulus this morning, with other storms already formed along the old boundary in Indiana. They are nearly stationary and someone is going to get dumped on while most just bake. Gotta love midsummer Midwest weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 Another half inch of rain overnight with some of the loudest house shaking thunder I’ve experienced in a few years. Probably will lose 30 pounds of sweat working outside in these dews today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 12HRRR is just crazy for western IL/ NE MO...keep rains going almost nonstop(expect a couple hours maybe this afternoon) for the next 24 hours as the area gets caught in a WAA wing of a MCS overnight This over areas that have 4-8 inches already IF this correct 10-13 inch amounts possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 42 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: 12HRRR is just crazy for western IL/ NE MO...keep rains going almost nonstop(expect a couple hours maybe this afternoon) for the next 24 hours as the area gets caught in a WAA wing of a MCS overnight This over areas that have 4-8 inches already IF this correct 10-13 inch amounts possible MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0407 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1004 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA, EASTERN MO, SOUTHERN IL, WESTERN KY CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY VALID 301404Z - 302000Z SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV AND LLJ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL RATES TO 2"/HR ARE LIKELY, PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF RAIN, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 5" POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL WILL EXACERBATE AND PERSIST ONGOING FLASH FLOODING. DISCUSSION...GOES-16 IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS AN EXTENDED CLUSTER OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA TO AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THIS IS REPRESENTATIVE OF A REGION OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BENEATH IT, ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV NEAR THE IL/IA/MO BORDER, AS WELL AS ALONG THE NOSE OF A ROBUST LLJ ARCING FROM THE SW AT 30-40KTS. 12Z U/A SOUNDINGS INDICATED PWS OF 1.57" AT DVN AND 1.68" AT ILX, BOTH AT OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE, WITH GPS TPW OBSERVATIONS INDICATING PWS TO 1.8" LURKING JUST SW OF THE AREA. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AT ILX WERE MEASURED AT ALMOST 13,500 FT, AND A RIBBON OF MUCAPE OF GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG WAS ANALYZED BY THE RECENT RAP, WITH A MODEST WEST TO EAST INSTABILITY GRADIENT PRESENT ACROSS THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH-RES CAMS DIFFER AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON, THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A CONTINUATION OF THE BI-MODAL DISTRIBUTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MCV WHICH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NEARLY IN PLACE ACROSS SE IA. AS THIS SPINS, AN ENHANCED CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AND INTENSIFY TO ITS S/SW AS MODEST 850MB INFLOW SUPPLIES EXTREME INSTABILITY (MUCAPE RISING TO 3000 J/KG) AND ANOMALOUS PWS APPROACHING 2". WHILE SOME SUBTLE W/SW MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY, IT WILL BE SLOW TO DRIFT AS IT ENCOUNTERS WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST, SUGGESTING REGENERATION AND TRAINING/BACKBUILDING ALONG IT WITH LITTLE DISPLACEMENT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN AREA OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH RATES POTENTIALLY RISING TO 2"/HR OR MORE. MUCH OF THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED MRMS ESTIMATED RAINFALL OF 2-4" WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN 6" IN THE LAST 12 HOURS, SO SOILS ARE PRE-SATURATED AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WOULD ENHANCE ONGOING FLASH FLOODING. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" OF RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS LOCALLY DOUBLE THAT IS LIKELY AS SHOWN BY THE RECENT HRRRV4, HRRRV3, AND ARW. FURTHER SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN IL AND INTO WESTERN KY, A SECONDARY MAXIMA IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ MORE IMPRESSIVELY DRIVES MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORT. DEEPENING WARM CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO MUCAPE RISING TOWARDS 4000 J/KG AND PWS IN EXCESS OF 2" SUGGESTS RAIN RATES WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MAY EXCEED 2"/HR AS WELL. WHILE THERE EXISTS MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A LAG IN ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY, THE ROBUST LLJ AND EXTREME THERMODYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTN. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BACKBUILDING, AND WHERE EXCESSIVE RAIN RATES CAN TRAIN, AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 5" ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL PROLONG AND ENHANCE FLASH FLOODING. WEISS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 Southwest Iowa is has dew points of 75-79 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 Dew up to 75 in Minneapolis. Breeze and partly cloudy skies are the only things keeping the heat stroke at bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 Had a peak DP of 79 and a max HI of 105 yesterday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 91 ORD, 90 here and 89 MDW today.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 Thunderheads to the east/northeast, nada here. Hit 86. Other than the tropical system this month has been pretty benign here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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