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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2020 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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Not to be a downer but it's a shame this sub forum is dead. I'll be riding this storm out down LBI but there's not many people here to talk too. It's kind of annoying being a drifter between the Mid-Atlantic, NY, and New England sub-forums to find discussion. The true philly/jersey shore area posts get stuck here. Just my 2 cents, I get it if this post is deleted. Just please don't 5 post me. 

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1 minute ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Not to be a downer but it's a shame this sub forum is dead. I'll be riding this storm out down LBI but there's not many people here to talk too. It's kind of annoying being a drifter between the Mid-Atlantic, NY, and New England sub-forums to find discussion. The true philly/jersey shore area posts get stuck here. Just my 2 cents, I get it if this post is deleted. Just please don't 5 post me. 

I’ll be on all day tomorrow with reports from OCNJ

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Short range models are very interesting for the Lehigh Valley. Looks like we could see actual tropical storm force winds (not gusts) for a short time tomorrow. Which makes sense given that Isaias made landfall stronger than expected. Hoping the power stays on at home and work.

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2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Short range models are very interesting for the Lehigh Valley. Looks like we could see actual tropical storm force winds (not gusts) for a short time tomorrow. Which makes sense given that Isaias made landfall stronger than expected. Hoping the power stays on at home and work.

I have my serious doubts. I'm charging 2 batteries for my cell and 2 batteries for my laptop as I type. I have a UPS as well....

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SPC Day 1

...Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay region to New England...
   As Isaias shifts northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic Region into
   New England, an accompanying/very moist low-level environment will
   permit maintenance of modest CAPE along and east of the track of the
   storm.  With a very strong wind field -- veering strongly with
   height -- also spreading northward in tandem with Isaias, a
   favorable environment for rotating cells -- and a few tornadoes --
   is apparent.  Overnight, as the storm eventually approaches the St.
   Lawrence Valley, limited tornado risk may spread as far north as
   Maine.

day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

day1otlk_1200.gif

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6 hours ago, hazwoper said:

Well, I’m here in OCNJ.  

I felt you go... :lol:  One of my younger nieces is your son's age and I know the kids have been going stir-crazy, to the point where my sister & BIL took her out to Lancaster County Sunday to do the "Turkey Hill Experience"  thing, so I get it.

Have been under a couple heavy streaks of rain the past hour, in some instances with 1"/hr rates, so am currently at 0.50" this morning so far at post time with temp at 72.

NHC put out a 4 am position update -

Quote

000
WTNT64 KNHC 040756
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
400 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...4 AM POSITION UPDATE...
...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

Greenville, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 
38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph (82 km/h).

A weather station in Pamlico Sound recently reported a sustained 
wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h).

A sustained wind of 51 mph (81 km/h) and a gust to 71 mph (115 
km/h) was recently reported at Alligator Bridge over the Alligator 
River, just south of Albemarle Sound.

This will be the final hourly position update issued for Tropical 
Storm Isaias.  The next full advisory will be issued at 5 AM EDT 
(0900 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 77.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM ENE OF ROCKY MOUNT/WILSON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF GREENVILLE CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Brown

 

091800_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
450 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  East central Sussex County in southern Delaware...

* Until 515 AM EDT.

* At 449 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Millville, or 15 miles east of Georgetown, moving
  north at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Henlopen Acres and Long Neck.
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Latest Warnings and Statements -

Quote

Tropical Storm Warning


Isaias Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 29
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ  AL092020
509 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

PAZ071-041015-
/O.CON.KPHI.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Philadelphia-
509 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Philadelphia

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: until late this
          afternoon

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
      to 73 mph
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
          storm force.
        - PREPARE: Last minute efforts to protect life and property
          should now be complete. The area remains subject to
          significant wind damage.
        - ACT: Now is the time to shelter from dangerous wind.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding
        - Potential impacts from the main wind event are unfolding.

* STORM SURGE
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
        - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet
          above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
        - Window of concern: through early Wednesday morning

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
      surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground
        - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Shelter against life-threatening storm surge of
          greater than 3 feet above ground.
        - PREPARE: Flood preparations and ordered evacuations should
          be complete. Evacuees should be in shelters well away from
          storm surge flooding.
        - ACT: Remain sheltered in a safe location. Do not venture
          outside.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding
        - Potential impacts from the main surge event are unfolding.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
      flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
          likely.
        - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
          if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
          rescues.
        - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
          multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos,
          and ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas,
          destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while
          increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides.
          Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
        - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
          communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
          washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
          escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
          moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
          become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
          weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
      tornadoes
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should continue to include possible
          tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: Stay within your shelter keeping informed of the
          latest tornado situation.
        - ACT: Move quickly to the safest place within your shelter
          if a tornado warning is issued.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
          shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - http://oem.readyphiladelphia.org

$$

Quote

Hurricane Local Statement


Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 29
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ070-071-101>106-041730-

Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 29
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ  AL092020
520 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

This product covers NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND

**Isaias Will Impact the Area this Morning through Tonight**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Atlantic, Atlantic
      Coastal Cape May, Camden, Cape May, Caroline, Cecil, Coastal
      Atlantic, Coastal Ocean, Cumberland, Delaware, Delaware
      Beaches, Eastern Chester, Eastern Monmouth, Eastern Montgomery,
      Gloucester, Hunterdon, Inland Sussex, Kent, Kent MD, Lower
      Bucks, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, New Castle, Northwestern
      Burlington, Ocean, Philadelphia, Queen Annes, Salem, Somerset,
      Southeastern Burlington, Sussex, Talbot, Upper Bucks, Warren,
      Western Chester, Western Monmouth, and Western Montgomery

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 270 miles southwest of Atlantic City NJ or about 220
      miles south-southwest of Dover DE
    - 36.3N 77.5W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 20 degrees at 28 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Isaias is currently approaching the North Carolina/
Virginia border and will continue northward and then northeastward
along the East Coast of the United States. Isaias will approach the
Delmarva early this morning and pass through the region today. Impacts
will diminish late this afternoon into tonight.

The main threats with this system are heavy rain resulting in
widespread flash flooding as well as river flooding, and strong to
damaging winds, especially near the coast. In addition, minor to
potentially moderate coastal flooding, and dangerous marine conditions
will occur.

Four to six inches of rain with locally higher amounts will result in
flash flooding. Strong winds along the New Jersey and Delaware coasts
with wind gusts of 65 to 75 mph are possible, and wind gusts inland
will range from 50 to 60 mph. Secondary threats include minor to
locally moderate coastal flooding, especially in Chesapeake Bay, as
well as the potential for isolated tornadoes. Dangerous rip currents
and 12 to 18 foot seas are also expected over the waters.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across the Delmarva, western New Jersey, and eastern
Pennsylvania. Potential impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. In hilly terrain, destructive runoff
      may run quickly down valleys while increasing susceptibility to
      rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers may
      become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across coastal New Jersey and Delaware.

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across New Jersey, the Delmarva, and much of southeastern Pennsylvania.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across east central Pennsylvania.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across Delaware Bay, the tidal Delaware River, northeastern
Chesapeake Bay, and the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Elsewhere across NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEAST MARYLAND, little to no impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
New Jersey, Delaware, southeastern Pennsylvania, and northeast
Maryland. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles can
be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don`t drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mount Holly NJ around 11 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$


I'm currently up to 0.91" of rain with a brief rain pause with temp at 72.

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