Hurricane Agnes Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Thinking about heading to OCNJ tonight with my 14 yr old son. He is getting the itch like me. It's a full moon today with the highest of normal tides, so that coast is probably going to see some pretty good flooding (at least until the off-shore winds/blow-out tides start happening as the storm moves further NE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: It's a full moon today with the highest of normal tides, so that coast is probably going to see some pretty good flooding (at least until the off-shore winds/blow-out tides start happening as the storm moves further NE). Our place is in a good spot. Along the bay, but at an area that rarely ever sees flooding. Guessing the last time it did was during Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 28 minutes ago, jwilson said: Having to drive into Philly this week. I was originally planning tomorrow morning, but looks like I should re-think that option and do it tonight, instead. I've checked the models, and the GFS is faster than most of the others (Euro, CMC, etc). That said, the Hurricane models themselves don't look particularly appealing during the morning hours tomorrow. Seems between 10 and 3 could be the peak, give or take. If you left late tomorrow morning you'd probably miss the worst (best) of it, guessing it's about a six hour drive? Of course if you want to experience it, doing it tonight is the way to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 3 hours ago, KamuSnow said: If you left late tomorrow morning you'd probably miss the worst (best) of it, guessing it's about a six hour drive? Of course if you want to experience it, doing it tonight is the way to go! 3-4" rain and winds to 50mph even if it was snow it's meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 21 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Our place is in a good spot. Along the bay, but at an area that rarely ever sees flooding. Guessing the last time it did was during Sandy. I know Sandy is verboten on AmericanWx () but Hurricane Irene from 2011 seems to have had a similar (although further east) track as Isaias, at least at our latitude. Will have to see if Isaias actually does strengthen to a hurricane before landfalling in SC somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 3, 2020 Author Share Posted August 3, 2020 It looks like the higher dewpoints are creeping back in. Current temp 90/DP 69/RH 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 20 minutes ago, RedSky said: 3-4" rain and winds to 50mph even if it was snow it's meh 30" to 40" of snow with 50mph winds is meh? Your bar is pretty high, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 2 hours ago, KamuSnow said: 30" to 40" of snow with 50mph winds is meh? Your bar is pretty high, lol. yeah it would take 30-40", problem with getting old is you have to keep raising the bar lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 8 hours ago, Plokoon111 said: Not looking forward to moving all my drum / recording equipment out of the basement. The Neshaminy creek will be angry. 6 inches? That is enough for bad flooding. I'm a big music guy and that would suck very badly if damaged. Thankfully I took a couple things out of basement (10 minutes?) and the rest I don't care about... 90F / DP 65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 31 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I'm a big music guy and that would suck very badly if damaged. Thankfully I took a couple things out of basement (10 minutes?) and the rest I don't care about... 90F / DP 65 Looking at Irene and Floyd, those were the storms where the water came up into the basement. I believe Irene was 8 inches for Croydon area. As long as it doesn't hit that, I'm good hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 3, 2020 Author Share Posted August 3, 2020 Temp up to 92 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 The first model to have this track pinned down was the Navgem last Tuesday. It never wavered from this track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 OT but does anyone live in Easton , PA? How is the area ? Might be going there to the Crayon Factory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 30 minutes ago, MJO812 said: OT but does anyone live in Easton , PA? How is the area ? Might be going there to the Crayon Factory. Basically a grungy cityish area Allentown, Bethlehem& Easton. But reccomend Wert's restaurant in Allentown with great food and worlds best burgers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Got the trash cans in so I don't look like a idiot chasing them down the street... This blob is moving up. 89F / DP 65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 25 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Got the trash cans in so I don't look like a idiot chasing them down the street... This blob is moving up. 89F / DP 65 Yeah have been watching that! It's been clouding over here so the temps have been dropping. Down to 86 but with increased dp - up to 68 so far. The latest Tropical Storm Warning from Mt. Holly (plus 5 pm cone) - Quote Tropical Storm Warning Isaias Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 27 National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ AL092020 517 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 PAZ071-040600- /O.CON.KPHI.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ Philadelphia- 517 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Philadelphia * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday morning until Tuesday evening - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58 to 73 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for significant wind damage. - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: through early Wednesday morning - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground. - PREPARE: Complete preparations for storm surge flooding, especially in low-lying vulnerable areas, before conditions become unsafe. - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for your area. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized inundation is possible with storm surge flooding mainly along tidal creeks and rivers and in low-lying spots. - Sections of near-river roads and parking lots could become overspread with surge water. Dangerous driving conditions are possible in places where surge water covers the road. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are likely. - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - http://oem.readyphiladelphia.org $$ MPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Having either radar delusions or that is some serious precursor rain building to our south. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Just now, RedSky said: Having either radar delusions or that is some serious precursor rain building to our south. Yep....and I think the Berks/ NW area will get drilled again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 10 minutes ago, RedSky said: Having either radar delusions or that is some serious precursor rain building to our south. They are getting nailed down in D.C. metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 12 minutes ago, RedSky said: Having either radar delusions or that is some serious precursor rain building to our south. Overrunning the frontal boundary from yesterday is pushing westbound opening the door for Isaias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Moderate rain with Thunder in the distance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Things blossoming near Philly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Updated Hurricane Local Statement - Quote Hurricane Local Statement Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 27 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ070-071-101>106-040700- Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 27 National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ AL092020 657 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 This product covers NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND **Tropical Storm Isaias Will Impact the Area Tuesday morning through Tuesday night** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Atlantic, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Camden, Cape May, Caroline, Cecil, Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean, Cumberland, Delaware, Delaware Beaches, Eastern Chester, Eastern Monmouth, Eastern Montgomery, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Inland Sussex, Kent, Kent MD, Lower Bucks, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, New Castle, Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, Philadelphia, Queen Annes, Salem, Somerset, Southeastern Burlington, Sussex, Talbot, Upper Bucks, Warren, Western Chester, Western Monmouth, and Western Montgomery * STORM INFORMATION: - About 580 miles south-southwest of Atlantic City NJ or about 540 miles south-southwest of Dover DE - 32.0N 79.4W - Storm Intensity 70 mph - Movement North-northeast or 15 degrees at 16 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Tropical Storm Isaias is currently located just offshore of the southeast Georgia coast and will continue northward along the East Coast, likely moving inland over the Carolinas this evening. Isaias will approach Delmarva by late tonight and pass through the region on Tuesday. Impacts will diminish Tuesday night. The main threats with this system are heavy rainfall resulting in widespread flash flooding as well as some river flooding, as well as strong and damaging winds, especially near the coast. In addition, minor to potentially moderate coastal flooding, and dangerous marine conditions will occur. Four to six inches of rain with locally higher amounts will result in flash flooding. Strong winds along the New Jersey and Delaware coasts with wind gusts of 65 to 75 mph are possible, and wind gusts inland will range from 55 to 65 mph. Secondary threats include minor to locally moderate coastal flooding, especially in Chesapeake Bay, as well as the potential for isolated tornadoes. Dangerous rip currents and 7 to 15 foot seas are also expected over the waters. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * FLOODING RAIN: Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across Delmarva, western New Jersey, and southeast Pennsylvania. Potential impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts across coastal New Jersey and Delaware. * WIND: Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across New Jersey, northern Delmarva, and much of southeastern Pennsylvania. Potential impacts in this area include: - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines. Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across portions of eastern central Pennsylvania. * SURGE: Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across along Delaware Bay, the tidal Delaware River, northeastern Chesapeake Bay, and the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware. Potential impacts in this area include: - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * TORNADOES: Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit. Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly ventilated area. It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter. Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded roadway. Remember, turn around don`t drown! If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter options. If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ around 11 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant. $$ Staarmann Temp is down to 82 here and it's overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Getting a pop-up shower here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Winds 75mph...officially a hurricane per TWC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Winds 75mph...officially a hurricane per TWC. Yup - 8 pm cone showing it back to a Hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Another pop-up just suddenly appeared over me. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Another pop-up just suddenly appeared over me. lol They are really popping up quick. One minute I check the radar and nothing....2 minutes later I see a red cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 4, 2020 Author Share Posted August 4, 2020 Pouring w/a thunderstorm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 2 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Winds 75mph...officially a hurricane per TWC. 85mph PECO workers will get a boat load of overtime... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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