jwilson Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 2 hours ago, Chief83 said: Floyd was a heck of a storm here in se pa. 10" in several locations and lots of flooding I was in 8th grade at the time and remember getting out of school early, only I had to walk home in the absolutely pouring rain. There were some places locally that used to flood quite often in the 90s and early aughts, I don't think they've had those issues in a while. Whether that's a change in weather or mitigation, I'm not sure, but I do think some of those rain storms have been unequaled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 All kinds of stuff has been lofted now including a Tropical Storm Watch (and warning) for the area - Quote Hurricane Local Statement Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 23 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-030515- Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 23 National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ AL092020 514 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 This product covers NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND **Isaias Moving up the East Coast** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Atlantic, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Camden, Cape May, Caroline, Cecil, Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean, Cumberland, Delaware, Delaware Beaches, Eastern Monmouth, Eastern Montgomery, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Inland Sussex, Kent, Kent MD, Lower Bucks, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, New Castle, Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, Philadelphia, Queen Annes, Salem, Somerset, Southeastern Burlington, Talbot, and Western Monmouth * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Atlantic, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Camden, Cape May, Caroline, Cecil, Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean, Cumberland, Delaware, Delaware Beaches, Eastern Monmouth, Eastern Montgomery, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Inland Sussex, Kent, Kent MD, Lower Bucks, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, New Castle, Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, Philadelphia, Queen Annes, Salem, Somerset, Southeastern Burlington, Talbot, and Western Monmouth * STORM INFORMATION: - About 850 miles south-southwest of Atlantic City NJ or about 820 miles south-southwest of Dover DE - 27.8N 79.8W - Storm Intensity 70 mph - Movement North-northwest or 345 degrees at 9 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Tropical Storm Isaias is currently just east of the central Florida coast. This storm is expected to continue northward very near the east coast. It may move inland south of our region. The main impacts within our region are expected starting Monday night and continuing through Wednesday morning. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * FLOODING RAIN: Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across Northern Delmarva, western New Jersey, and much of southeastern Pennsylvania. Potential impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts across The coastal areas of New Jersey and Delaware. * WIND: Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across coastal Delaware and coastal New Jersey. Potential impacts in this area include: - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines. Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across northeastern Maryland, northern and central Delaware, the rest of New Jersey, and southeastern Pennsylvania. * SURGE: Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across northeastern Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, tidal Delaware River, and the New Jersey and Delaware coast. Potential impacts in this area include: - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * TORNADOES: Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your home or business. When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the storm. If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground. Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are unable to make personal preparations. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ around 11 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant. $$ Quote Tropical Storm Watch Isaias Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 23 National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ AL092020 504 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 PAZ071-030515- /O.NEW.KPHI.TR.A.1009.200802T2104Z-000000T0000Z/ Philadelphia- 504 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Philadelphia * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 50 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday afternoon until Tuesday evening - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: Tuesday morning until Tuesday evening - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground - PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground. - PREPARE: Efforts should now be underway to prepare for storm surge flooding, especially in low-lying vulnerable areas. - ACT: Take actions to protect life and property. Prepare to leave if evacuation orders are given for your area. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized inundation is possible with storm surge flooding mainly along tidal creeks and rivers and in low-lying spots. - Sections of near-river roads and parking lots could become overspread with surge water. Dangerous driving conditions are possible in places where surge water covers the road. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major flooding rain - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are likely. - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - http://oem.readyphiladelphia.org $$ Currently 89 and mostly sunny here with a dp of 74. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 ^Just got drilled 3 times by text by Tropical Storm Watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 Awesome looking anvil off to my NW. Looks like the Allentown area is taking it on the chin again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: Awesome looking anvil off to my NW. Looks like the Allentown area is taking it on the chin again. We're all so close so I don't any of us are out of the game. Philly/NJ could get drilled and NW gets screwed......who knows? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Currently down to 86 here with dews still in the 70s, after a high of 93. Isaias still on track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 2 hours ago, JTA66 said: Awesome looking anvil off to my NW. Looks like the Allentown area is taking it on the chin again. I took a picture of it while on a walk. My pic was less than an hour ago, but I think it is the same as you reference. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 3, 2020 Author Share Posted August 3, 2020 High for the day was 95 here. Current temp 84/DP 76/RH 78% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 81F / DP 71....radar is pretty much dead at this time. Looking forward to Isaias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 8 hours ago, Chief83 said: I took a picture of it while on a walk. My pic was less than an hour ago, but I think it is the same as you reference. Great shot! You have to be in the right place/angle to get the "anvil" view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 3, 2020 Author Share Posted August 3, 2020 Tropical Storm Warning in effect here. 40-50 mph winds w/gusts up to 70 mph expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 3, 2020 Author Share Posted August 3, 2020 Pretty decent dewpoint drop here overnight. DP down to 68 here now after reaching 79 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Looks like my low this morning may be 77 and the dp is literally some 10 degrees lower than yesterday, ahead of the cyclone. NHC now has Isaias progged to briefly become a hurricane again with the 5 am update, as it moves into more open water off the coast of Florida. It will depend on what happens to it when it hits the Carolinas regarding any intensity up here around 40 lat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Levi's commentary last night (note he had some audio issues so will have to max out your volume to hear him) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 13 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Looks like my low this morning may be 77 and the dp is literally some 10 degrees lower than yesterday, ahead of the cyclone. NHC now has Isaias progged to briefly become a hurricane again with the 5 am update, as it moves into more open water off the coast of Florida. It will depend on what happens to it when it hits the Carolinas regarding any intensity up here around 40 lat. Just heard this. No drama here but I think this thing may nail us more than we think.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: Just heard this. No drama here but I think this thing may nail us more than we think.... The blobs on the IR are large thunderstorm complexes that are just north of the CoC currently offshore from FL, but the whole thing will eventually go barreling into the Carolinas, and it will depend on whether the thunderstorm complexes hold together as the system moves over land, with respect to how much rain gets wrung out over us (particularly if the ocean fetch feeds it). The SSTs off the coast are back to bathwater levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Not looking forward to moving all my drum / recording equipment out of the basement. The Neshaminy creek will be angry. 6 inches? That is enough for bad flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 WPC forecast as of this morning (east of D.C. metro gets nailed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Current Hurricane Local Statement - Quote Hurricane Local Statement Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 25 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-031730- Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 25 National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ AL092020 523 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 This product covers NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND **Isaias Expected to Impact the Area Late Tonight into Wednesday Morning** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for Atlantic, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Cape May, Caroline, Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean, Cumberland, Delaware Beaches, Eastern Monmouth, Inland Sussex, Kent, Middlesex, Ocean, Queen Annes, Southeastern Burlington, Talbot, and Western Monmouth * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Atlantic, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Cape May, Caroline, Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean, Cumberland, Delaware Beaches, Eastern Monmouth, Inland Sussex, Kent, Middlesex, Ocean, Queen Annes, Southeastern Burlington, Talbot, and Western Monmouth - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Camden, Cecil, Delaware, Eastern Montgomery, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Kent MD, Lower Bucks, Mercer, Morris, New Castle, Northwestern Burlington, Philadelphia, Salem, and Somerset * STORM INFORMATION: - About 730 miles south-southwest of Atlantic City NJ or about 690 miles south-southwest of Dover DE - 29.7N 79.9W - Storm Intensity 70 mph - Movement North or 355 degrees at 9 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Tropical Storm Isaias is currently located just offshore of the northeast Florida coast. The storm is expected to continue northward along the East Coast. It will likely move inland over the Carolinas this evening and approach our region by late tonight and especially Tuesday. Impacts should diminish by Wednesday morning. The main threats with this system are heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and some river flooding, strong winds especially near the coast, minor to potentially moderate coastal flooding, and dangerous marine conditions. We are most concerned about flash flooding caused by 4 to 6 inches of rain, as well as strong winds along the New Jersey and Delaware coasts with wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph possible. Secondary threats include minor to locally moderate coastal flooding, especially in Chesapeake Bay, as well as the potential for isolated tornadoes. Dangerous rip currents and 8 to 12 foot seas are also expected over the waters. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * FLOODING RAIN: Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across northern Delmarva, western New Jersey, and much of southeastern Pennsylvania. Potential impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt water rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. In hilly terrain, destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Streets and parking lots may become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions may become dangerous. Possible road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts across coastal New Jersey and Delaware. * WIND: Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across eastern New Jersey and central and southern Delaware. Potential impacts in this area include: - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines. Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across northern Delaware, western New Jersey, northeast Maryland, and southeastern Pennsylvania. * SURGE: Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts along Delaware Bay, the tidal Delaware River, northeastern Chesapeake Bay, and the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware. Potential impacts in this area include: - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * TORNADOES: Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across New Jersey and Delmarva. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded roadway. Remember, turn around don`t drown! If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ around 11 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant. $$ On another note, that cold front means some business believe or not (temps in the upper midwest are down into the 50s this morning) and my "low" for this morning has dropped another degree and is 76, with dp 64. EDIT - temp still dropping and am now down to 75 w/dp 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 The speed of this thing might be what saves us from even worse flooding. It'll be booking, so a quick soaking is likely. 2-4" likely, pockets of more. Flooding is likely too, just the speed will limit anything too severe I think. We shall see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Newman said: The speed of this thing might be what saves us from even worse flooding. It'll be booking, so a quick soaking is likely. 2-4" likely, pockets of more. Flooding is likely too, just the speed will limit anything too severe I think. We shall see Didn't you guys just get nailed up there yesterday? My low finally settled on 75 before taking off again and am up to 79. Isaias path still holding as of 8 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Tropical Storm Warning just lofted west from the Jersey coast - Quote Tropical Storm Warning Isaias Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 26 National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ AL092020 1118 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 PAZ071-040000- /O.EXA.KPHI.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /O.UPG.KPHI.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ Philadelphia- 1118 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Philadelphia * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday morning until Tuesday afternoon - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58 to 73 mph - The wind threat has increased from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for significant wind damage. - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: through early Wednesday morning - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground. - PREPARE: Complete preparations for storm surge flooding, especially in low-lying vulnerable areas, before conditions become unsafe. - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for your area. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized inundation is possible with storm surge flooding mainly along tidal creeks and rivers and in low-lying spots. - Sections of near-river roads and parking lots could become overspread with surge water. Dangerous driving conditions are possible in places where surge water covers the road. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are likely. - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - http://oem.readyphiladelphia.org $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 3 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Didn't you guys just get nailed up there yesterday? My low finally settled on 75 before taking off again and am up to 79. Isaias path still holding as of 8 am. Yup 5.5" in like 3 hrs here in Western Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Well, I'm considering working from home tomorrow. Even though my office is close by, I'm by myself now with no husband to rescue me in the event I get stuck-and just not knowing what could be happening at the house while I'm at the office. Should start drafting that email. You guys too? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 18 minutes ago, Lady Di said: Well, I'm considering working from home tomorrow. Even though my office is close by, I'm by myself now with no husband to rescue me in the event I get stuck-and just not knowing what could be happening at the house while I'm at the office. Should start drafting that email. You guys too? Happily retired! Currently 86 and hardly a cloud in the sky. Mt. Holly issued an updated Hurricane Local Statement - Quote Hurricane Local Statement Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 26 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ070-071-101>106-040000- Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 26 National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ AL092020 1126 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 This product covers NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND **Isaias Will Impact the Area Late Tonight into Wednesday Morning** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Eastern Chester, Sussex, Upper Bucks, Warren, Western Chester, and Western Montgomery - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for Camden, Cecil, Delaware, Eastern Montgomery, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Kent MD, Lower Bucks, Mercer, Morris, New Castle, Northwestern Burlington, Philadelphia, Salem, and Somerset * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Atlantic, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Camden, Cape May, Caroline, Cecil, Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean, Cumberland, Delaware, Delaware Beaches, Eastern Chester, Eastern Monmouth, Eastern Montgomery, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Inland Sussex, Kent, Kent MD, Lower Bucks, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, New Castle, Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, Philadelphia, Queen Annes, Salem, Somerset, Southeastern Burlington, Sussex, Talbot, Upper Bucks, Warren, Western Chester, Western Monmouth, and Western Montgomery * STORM INFORMATION: - About 680 miles south-southwest of Atlantic City NJ or about 630 miles south-southwest of Dover DE - 30.7N 80.1W - Storm Intensity 70 mph - Movement North or 360 degrees at 13 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Tropical Storm Isaias is currently located just offshore of the southeast Georgia coast. The storm will continue northward along the East Coast, likely moving inland over the Carolinas this evening. Isaias will approach Delmarva by late tonight and pass through the region on Tuesday. Impacts should diminish by Wednesday morning. The main threats with this system are heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and some river flooding, strong winds, especially near the coast, minor to potentially moderate coastal flooding, and dangerous marine conditions. The primary concern is flash flooding due to 4 to 6 inches of rain. Four to six inches of rain would result in flash flooding. Strong winds along the New Jersey and Delaware coasts with wind gusts of 65 to 75 mph are possible, and wind gusts inland will range from 55 to 65 mph. Secondary threats include minor to locally moderate coastal flooding, especially in Chesapeake Bay, as well as the potential for isolated tornadoes. Dangerous rip currents and 8 to 12 foot seas are also expected over the waters. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * FLOODING RAIN: Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across northern Delmarva, western New Jersey, and much of southeastern Pennsylvania. Potential impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts across coastal New Jersey and Delaware. * WIND: Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across eastern New Jersey and central and southern Delaware. Potential impacts in this area include: - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines. Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across northern Delaware, western New Jersey, northeast Maryland, and southeastern Pennsylvania. * SURGE: Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts along Delaware Bay, the tidal Delaware River, northeastern Chesapeake Bay, and the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware. Potential impacts in this area include: - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * TORNADOES: Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly ventilated area. Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded roadway. Remember, turn around don`t drown! If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ around 5 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant. $$ MPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Mt Holly thinking the winds could overperform inland Quote We also have growing concerns that widespread damaging winds may be an issue. Again, the system will be starting to lose its tropical characteristics but because of the strong baroclinic zone it will be moving into this could actually strengthen it. Winds will initially be from the E/SE then shift to NW behind the system. Sustained winds of 40+ mph will be possible along the coast with gusts potentially reaching over 60 mph here. Farther N/W towards the I-95 corridor, widespread gusts of 45 to 55+ mph are becoming increasingly likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Having to drive into Philly this week. I was originally planning tomorrow morning, but looks like I should re-think that option and do it tonight, instead. I've checked the models, and the GFS is faster than most of the others (Euro, CMC, etc). That said, the Hurricane models themselves don't look particularly appealing during the morning hours tomorrow. Seems between 10 and 3 could be the peak, give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Lady Di said: Well, I'm considering working from home tomorrow. Even though my office is close by, I'm by myself now with no husband to rescue me in the event I get stuck-and just not knowing what could be happening at the house while I'm at the office. Should start drafting that email. You guys too? Fortunately I've been working from home since March. If you can swing it, I would. As you said, it would be a good idea to keep an eye on the house. And I'm guessing things could be a bit dicey for several hours on the roads tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Lady Di said: Well, I'm considering working from home tomorrow. Even though my office is close by, I'm by myself now with no husband to rescue me in the event I get stuck-and just not knowing what could be happening at the house while I'm at the office. Should start drafting that email. You guys too? Thinking about heading to OCNJ tonight with my 14 yr old son. He is getting the itch like me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now