RedSky Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 ECM is a Fay clone for the region with rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 26 minutes ago, RedSky said: ECM is a Fay clone for the region with rain. Yep look at the preciptable water out lay fairly good potential for heavy rain 25-40 mph winds and possibly some islolated tornadoes on the east and northeast side of the center whatever is left. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 1, 2020 Author Share Posted August 1, 2020 Mt.Holly (KDIX) radar down again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 My ambient weather station split today was a bit cooler than my Davis Vantage Pro at 85.8/68.7 vs. the Vantage Pro at 85.9/69.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Made it up to 92 today and currently 84 and clouding over. Isaias has weakened to a 70 mph TS at the moment but the 8 pm update track appears to have us bullseyed at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 2, 2020 Author Share Posted August 2, 2020 ...Northeast... Weak mid-level disturbance will eject across the lower Great Lakes ahead of the main upper trough positioned farther west over the MS Valley. This lead feature should encourage a weak surface low to track from southern ON into southwest QC by mid evening. Any appreciable mid-level height falls will remain north of the international border, along with the primary large-scale mass response. Early in the day1 period, deep convection will likely be ongoing within a corridor of low-level warm advection, along the nose of a pronounced LLJ. This LLJ will shift north across upstate NY into southern ON/QC during the afternoon hours as a surface warm front advances north of the border. At this time it appears the primary focus for sustained, organized deep convection will be noted immediately ahead of the surface low. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the surface low across western NY where temperatures should warm rapidly through the mid 80s. Renewed surface-based convection should evolve in the lee of Lake Ontario then track northeast. If the surface warm front were to be delayed advancing north into QC, low-level shear would be improved markedly across northern NY which would prove more supportive for supercells and tornadoes. Additionally, there is also some concern for strong convection along the trailing warm front that extends southeast across the Hudson Valley. While boundary-layer warming may not be as strong/focused as farther north, sustained warm advection and high PW-airmass should result in scattered strong convection. Forecast wind profiles favor some supercell threat, though clustering is also possible. Damaging winds should be the primary concern. Farther south, a belt of seasonally strong mid-level flow will extend from the base of the trough over the southern Appalachians into the northern Middle Atlantic. While neutral/weak height rises are expected across this region, boundary-layer heating and orographic influences should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms. While poor lapse rates will limit convective updraft strength with this activity, modest cloud-layer flow should allow for some organization, along with a threat for localized wind damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 Major flooding out here in Western Berks, 4" of rain in about 1.5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 48 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Major flooding out here in Western Berks, 4" of rain in about 1.5 hours. WOW! Where did that come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 32 minutes ago, wkd said: WOW! Where did that come from? There was even a TOR up there for a bit about 45 minutes ago and a new one just issued. Numerous reports of flooding/water rescues in Berks. Creeks out of their banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 15 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: There was even a TOR up there for a bit about 45 minutes ago and a new one just issued. Numerous reports of flooding/water rescues in Berks. Creeks out of their banks. It was absolutely insane from 3am till 6:30am the thunder and lightning was unreal then the the torrential rain started shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, penndotguy said: It was absolutely insane from 3am till 6:30am the thunder and lightning was unreal then the the torrential rain started shortly after. Warm front on the move! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 It's been a steam bath this morning although without the sun beating down and temps still below 80, it's not too bad yet. Was just outside and am getting a bit of drizzle. Currently 78 with a dp of 75 and light drizzle. TS Isaias is looking more and more Fay-like and whatever is left is still being set to come through the CWA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 2 hours ago, penndotguy said: Major flooding out here in Western Berks, 4" of rain in about 1.5 hours. You guys got drilled....radar was kicking! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 The trough is coming to pick Isaias up later today and tonight. warm front just went through clouds are flying from the south to north at the low levels. Dewpoint 66 last night is currently sitting at 75 this morning. Let the tropical games begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 38 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: You guys got drilled....radar was kicking! we ended up with 5.5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 Suspect today could be our last chance this year of a 90+ day here in Western Chesco. Even if we fail to touch 90 again....the 5 such days already recorded this year are the most since the seven (7) 90+ days we recorded in 2012. For more good news for those sick of this heat....our last average day with a high in the 80's is August 17th - with our average high of only 77.7 by the end of this month! On a wet note the WXSIM prints out 4.49" of rain from the tropical storm this week....we shall see! We could use some rain as while we are still above normal we have not seen any rain in the last 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 2, 2020 Author Share Posted August 2, 2020 Current temp 84/DP 77/RH 81% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 2 hours ago, penndotguy said: we ended up with 5.5" You Berks peeps were in the 4-8" rain splotch on the 6z ECM from the tropical system that's 100 year flood potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 90F with an 80F dew point. 107F heat index. Disgusting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 Peeped outside and it is brutal. It finally hit 90 here and with a 77 dp, it's sauna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 90F/DP 77 Got stuff up and off the basement floor in anticipation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 2, 2020 Author Share Posted August 2, 2020 Current temp 93/DP 79/RH 63% Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 4 hours ago, penndotguy said: we ended up with 5.5" I seen some reports of 5.8 - 5.9".? That's "Floyd" material!! 92F / DP 75 Fall is coming soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I seen some reports of 5.8 - 5.9".? That's "Floyd" material!! 92F / DP 75 Fall is coming soon... Floyd was a heck of a storm here in se pa. 10" in several locations and lots of flooding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, Chief83 said: Floyd was a heck of a storm here in se pa. 10" in several locations and lots of flooding Floyd was great from a weather perspective! Like an idiot and weather euthanist I remember going for a walk during Floyd when it was pouring. I'm 6'1" and there were portions of roads which were up to my knees. It was like a river....great fun! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 40 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Floyd was great from a weather perspective! Like an idiot and weather euthanist I remember going for a walk during Floyd when it was pouring. I'm 6'1" and there were portions of roads which were up to my knees. It was like a river....great fun! I used to have a half-barrel water garden with 2, 9" comets in it, and Floyd literally caused it to overflow and I had to run out there and keep bailing it out so the fish didn't go over the side! It was a nightmare to drive home from work for that too (let out early). Took several hours due to all the flooding, to do a normal 40 minute afternoon commute. Mt. Holly just hoisted a Flash Flood watch for a large area - Quote Flash Flood Watch Flood Watch National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 333 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054- 055-060>062-070-071-101>106-030745- /O.NEW.KPHI.FF.A.0005.200804T0200Z-200805T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD- Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon- Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem- Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland- Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic- Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh- Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester- Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Georgetown, Rehoboth Beach, Elkton, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Millville, Hammonton, Cape May Court House, Ocean City, Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, Wharton State Forest, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown 333 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of Delaware, northeast Maryland, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, including the following areas, in Delaware, Delaware Beaches, Inland Sussex, Kent, and New Castle. In northeast Maryland, Caroline, Cecil, Kent MD, Queen Annes, and Talbot. In New Jersey, Atlantic, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Camden, Cape May, Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean, Cumberland, Eastern Monmouth, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, Southeastern Burlington, Sussex, Warren, and Western Monmouth. In Pennsylvania, Berks, Carbon, Delaware, Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lehigh, Lower Bucks, Monroe, Northampton, Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, Western Chester, and Western Montgomery. * From Monday evening through Tuesday evening * Heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Isaias is expected to start as early as late Monday evening and will continue through the day Tuesday. Widespread amounts of 3 to 5 inches are likely with locally higher totals possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that there is the potential for flash flooding which can be life-threatening. Heavy rain is expected to occur over a short period of time. Rapidly rising flood waters may quickly inundate roadways and areas of poor drainage. Streams and creeks could leave their banks, flooding nearby properties. Please monitor the forecast, especially if you live in a location that is prone to flooding. Be prepared to take action if a flash flood warning is issued for your area. && $$ Staarmann Currently mostly sunny, 92 with dp 76. Isaias still on track to barrel through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 I remember getting out of work early for Floyd. I thought it was ridiculous—it’s rain, not snow. But I wasn’t going to argue about being sent home. Then I got out on the roads and my (at the time) 15-20 minute commute took close to an hour with all the road closures. I did debate taking a walk but decided against it. Not so much for the rain but the wind—I didn’t want a branch or power line coming down on me. Anyway, this afternoon’s Euro was interesting. To my untrained eye it looks like it keeps Isaias rather consolidated so we only get heavy rains west of I-95 and not biblical rains. Still plenty of time, nothings set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 56 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I used to have a half-barrel water garden with 2, 9" comets in it, and Floyd literally caused it to overflow and I had to run out there and keep bailing it out so the fish didn't go over the side! It was a nightmare to drive home from work for that too (let out early). Took several hours due to all the flooding, to do a normal 40 minute afternoon commute. Mt. Holly just hoisted a Flash Flood watch for a large area - Currently mostly sunny, 92 with dp 76. Isaias still on track to barrel through here. I'm onboard with that. This Convid-19 stuff is depressing....need some excitement. Berks getting some storms again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 52 minutes ago, JTA66 said: I remember getting out of work early for Floyd. I thought it was ridiculous—it’s rain, not snow. But I wasn’t going to argue about being sent home. Then I got out on the roads and my (at the time) 15-20 minute commute took close to an hour with all the road closures. I did debate taking a walk but decided against it. Not so much for the rain but the wind—I didn’t want a branch or power line coming down on me. Anyway, this afternoon’s Euro was interesting. To my untrained eye it looks like it keeps Isaias rather consolidated so we only get heavy rains west of I-95 and not biblical rains. Still plenty of time, nothings set in stone. I was younger then...didn't even consider "hazzards". But damn, it was fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 When I worked for Verizon I had to go to North Jersey after Floyd. A dam burst and flooded a central office that had an open wall for construction. What a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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