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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2020 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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2 hours ago, RedSky said:

It's been one hell of an unmerciful stretch of 90's torch wave ending today.

 

Just heard Hurricane Schwartz on KYW saying Philly tied the record for 21 days of 90+ temps (am guessing for this month).

Here it is currently 95 (my high for the day so far), but at least the dp is 65 and not 75!

175432_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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My high ended up edging up one more degree to 96 just after 3 pm and then it clouded over, dropping the temp a few degrees after that.   It's currently 84 and overcast.

NHC upgraded the forecast for TS Isaias at the 5 pm update, to reach hurricane status as it barrels through the Bahamas.  The cone path has steadily moved to the east since the tracking started (maybe dependent on the strength of that  Bermuda High and shear).  Levi from Tropical Tidbits has an interesting take so far -

 

234050_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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SPC Day 3

...Northeast...
   Organized convection will again be possible in association with the
   northeastward-moving cyclone on Sunday, as moderate low/mid-level
   flow and rich low-level moisture overspread portions of the
   Northeast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding how this
   scenario will evolve, but supercells and/or organized bowing
   segments will be possible, with an attendant risk of locally
   damaging wind. Some tornado potential will also be present in the
   vicinity of the retreating surface warm front as it moves northward
   through the day. Some portion of this region may require an upgrade
   once details come into better focus. 

day3otlk_0730.gif

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The warnings woke me up last night and there was a good amount of lightning but only 0.01" of rain before midnight here.  Have had on and off light spatters later this morning that have amounted to 0.06" so far.  After a low of 71, am currently at 75 and overcast.  Looks like the models shifted Isaias a tick to the west with the 11 am update.

144952_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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The overcast cleared about an hour ago just as I was finishing using the oven and the temp outside has responded in kind.  Didn't make it to 80 here until around 5 pm.

Currently partly sunny and 81 with 69 dewpoint (it was pretty steamy this morning even with the temps in the 70s most of the day). 

I also noticed the cone is moving back west again too!

205732_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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SPC Day 2

...Northeast...
   Moderate destabilization near and south of the surface warm front,
   combined with veering wind profiles with 35-50 kt of effective
   shear, will result in a conditionally favorable environment for
   supercells across much of central/eastern PA/NY and northern NJ by
   Sunday afternoon. However, substantial uncertainty remains regarding
   storm coverage across the region with the most favorable
   environment. Large-scale ascent associated with the departing
   shortwave trough is expected to primarily remain north of the
   international border, with a capping inversion around 700 mb
   potentially limiting deep convection across much of the warm sector.

   At least isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along an
   eastward-moving surface trough Sunday afternoon. All hazards would
   be possible with any sustained deep convection. A Slight Risk has
   been introduced from northeast PA into central NY, where confidence
   in storm coverage is somewhat greater due to potentially stronger
   heating and instability compared to areas further north and east. 

day2otlk_0600.gif

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After a "cooler" low of 71 than recently, am edging up and currently at 72 but with dp 70.  About 72 hours out, right off the coast of Jersey is bullseye so far for what would be TS Isaias' CoC once it gets up here, but I wouldn't be surprised if more track changes happen. The 8 am update should be in shortly.

5am-035129_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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July in Western Chester County PA ends as the 14th warmest July and our warmest since the same 77.0 average temperature in July 2011. Also with 5 days that at least on a rounded basis exceeded 90 degrees this month marks the most 90+ days in the county since the 7 such days also back in July 2011. Of interest 9 of the top 10 hottest July's in the Western Chesco data set occurred prior to 1955 with only the hottest July on record 1990 cracking the top 10 all-time hot July's in the last 65 years. 

Below are the top 10 July's on record for Chester County PA

1999 - 80.0 / 1901 - 79.2 / 1955 - 78.9 / 1921 - 78.8 / 1944 - 78.7 / 1900 - 78.3 / 1943 - 77.8 / 1898 - 77.3 / 1931 - 77.3 / 1935 - 77.3

image.png.b8409bc9b25964eab4ec33882367b23c.png

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