Hurricane Agnes Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Radar has been lighting up to the south. Currently 75 and overcast here. Overnight/morning statements - For the coastal Jersey counties - Quote Tropical Storm Warning Fay Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 3 National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ AL062020 458 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 NJZ022-101700- /O.CON.KPHI.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ Atlantic- 458 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Pomona - Estell Manor * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 45 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: until late this afternoon - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Last minute efforts to protect property should now be complete. The area remains subject to limited wind damage. - ACT: Now is the time to shelter from hazardous wind. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding - Potential impacts from the main wind event are unfolding. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: through this afternoon - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Shelter against storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground. - PREPARE: All flood preparations should be complete. Expect flooding of low-lying roads and property. - ACT: Stay away from storm surge prone areas. Continue to follow the instructions of local officials. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding - Potential impacts from the main surge event are unfolding. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for moderate flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are possible. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should continue to include possible tornadoes. - PREPARE: Stay within your shelter keeping informed of the latest tornado situation. - ACT: Move quickly to the safest place within your shelter if a tornado warning is issued. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - http://www.readyatlantic.org $$ For the area - Quote Hurricane Local Statement Tropical Storm Fay Local Statement Advisory Number 2 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ010-012>027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-101115- Tropical Storm Fay Local Statement Advisory Number 2 National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ AL062020 1109 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 This product covers NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND **Tropical Storm Fay Approaching the New Jersey Coast** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Atlantic, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Cape May, Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean, Eastern Monmouth, Middlesex, Ocean, Southeastern Burlington, and Western Monmouth * STORM INFORMATION: - About 210 miles south of Atlantic City NJ or about 180 miles south of Cape May NJ - 36.3N 74.8W - Storm Intensity 45 mph - Movement North or 10 degrees at 8 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Heavy rain leading to flooding will be possible, especially along and southeast of the Interstate 95 corridor due to Tropical Storm Fay. Tropical Storm Fay is currently off the Virginia coast. It is expected to progress north over our region through Friday. Heavy rain is possible beginning very late tonight and continuing through Friday evening. The threat for tropical storm winds over land is very low except right along the New Jersey coast. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * FLOODING RAIN: Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts along and southeast of the Interstate 95 corridor. Potential impacts include: - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. * TORNADOES: Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. * WIND: Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across coastal New Jersey. Potential impacts in this area include: - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. Elsewhere across NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND, little to no impact is anticipated. * SURGE: Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across coastal New Jersey and Delaware. Potential impacts in this area include: - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded roadway. Remember, turn around don`t drown! If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter options. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ around 5 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Cant wait til winter. Such huge differences in the very short term between the GFS and the new GFS-para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Cant wait til winter. Such huge differences in the very short term between the GFS and the new GFS-para 3ohr time difference on initialization. Not a fair comparison. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, wkd said: 3ohr time difference on initialization. Not a fair comparison. I guess to line them up, you'd have this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Thx. More realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 13 minutes ago, wkd said: Thx. More realistic. The GFS seems to have the cyclone a bit further north and east versus the GFS-para... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Light steady rain starting here. Current temp 73F, DP 71.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Here is the KDOX view of TS Fay - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Currently at 0.27" of rain, 74F. A slightly heavier band is pushing in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 2 hours ago, wkd said: 3ohr time difference on initialization. Not a fair comparison. Didnt note the timestamp. Just getting the rust off for autumn lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Getting light rain (at 0.01") and currently 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 I've been down in Ocean City, MD the past week, and dewey the previous one. We got 4-6 inches of rain here last night, wind wasnt bad. Surf might turn on this afternoon as the wind switches west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 The latest-- TS Fay looks to literally be scraping and slapping againt the coast of Delaware! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Rain shield is on the doorstep. Got a mow in yesterday, so bring on the rains! 75F/ DP 72 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Currently at 0.57" of rain. Getting some 1"/hour rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Now getting some moderate rain and am up to 0.20" so far. Temp is 74. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Here's the cone - cutting right up through Jersey! Now have 0.59" rain here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, BBasile said: Looking good. Yes it is! Getting some heavier rain here now, with some occasional breezes - feels practically stormy at times. Just crossed the 1" mark rain-wise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Now at 0.77" here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Moderate to occasionally heavy rain here. Approaching .50" at noon. Impressive little storm. Makes you wonder what Fay might have been capable of if this were 9/10 instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 I'm surprised the ssts are this warm off the coast this "early" in the season (image from yesterday before it started churning up this way)! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 38 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Moderate to occasionally heavy rain here. Approaching .50" at noon. Impressive little storm. Makes you wonder what Fay might have been capable of if this were 9/10 instead. It is indeed an impressive little storm...nice band incoming, should get some heavy rain and wind gusts from it. Had some up in the 20's so far, also rainfall total is up to 1.70". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Some of these heavier bands are producing rates in the 3-4"/hour range. Have had over an 1 inch of rain in the last hour. Currently at 2.88". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Had a heavy band pass through about 5 minutes ago with almost 2"/hr rates. Currently heavy rain and @ 1.82" with temp at 73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 FFW issued for the metro area - Quote Flash Flood Warning Flash Flood Warning DEC003-NJC005-007-011-015-033-PAC029-045-091-101-102100- /O.NEW.KPHI.FF.W.0021.200710T1656Z-200710T2100Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1256 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... New Castle County in northern Delaware... Northwestern Cumberland County in southern New Jersey... Salem County in southern New Jersey... Northwestern Camden County in southern New Jersey... Gloucester County in southern New Jersey... Northwestern Burlington County in southern New Jersey... Southeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Eastern Chester County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Philadelphia County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania... * Until 500 PM EDT. * At 1255 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain falling across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen. Flash flooding is likely. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage and low lying areas. * Some locations that could experience flooding include... Philadelphia, Camden, Wilmington, Newark, Millville, Bridgeton, Middletown, West Chester, Gloucester City, Cherry Hill, Norristown, Chester, Deptford, West Deptford, Glassboro, Lindenwold, Phoenixville, West Norriton, East Norriton and Pennsville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Protecting yourself from immediate threats to life and safety shall take priority. Whenever possible, as long as it does not cause greater harm, all COVID-19 protective action guidance should be followed. Turn around...don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately. Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate precautions to protect life and property. && LAT...LON 4018 7553 4007 7497 4006 7498 4005 7497 4007 7494 4006 7491 3931 7515 3940 7577 3971 7578 FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED EXPECTED RAINFALL...1-3 INCHES IN 1 HOUR $$ Kruzdlo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 10, 2020 Author Share Posted July 10, 2020 Picked up 0.31" of rain so far with moderate to heavy rain falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Had a heavy band pass through about 5 minutes ago with almost 2"/hr rates. Currently heavy rain and @ 1.82" with temp at 73. Getting hit now....73F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Just now, Birds~69 said: Getting hit now....73F. Just ticked over the 2" mark for event rain - 2.01". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackhound Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Total event rainfall so far -- 2.25". Glen Mills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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